3 Holiday Fintech Stocks for the $1T Spending Boom

The end‑of‑year holidays have quietly become one of the most important “seasons” in the stock market, even if Wall Street doesn’t give it an official sector label. Between Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s, U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion for the 2025 winter holiday period, the first time total seasonal sales have ever crossed that mark. That’s up from roughly $976 billion in 2024, a year‑over‑year jump of just over 4%, continuing a long‑running trend of resilient holiday demand.​

This spending isn’t just about crowded malls and e‑commerce carts; it’s about the rails that move money from buyers to merchants. Digital payments, card networks, and BNPL platforms increasingly sit at the heart of that system. The result is a powerful, recurring tailwind for a small group of well‑positioned fintech stocks every time the holiday lights go up.

Why Holiday Spending Is a Catalyst for Payments Stocks

Holiday shopping has always been seasonal, but the way those dollars move has changed dramatically over the last decade. Cash and checks have given way to cards, mobile wallets, and embedded payment options like “one‑click” checkout and BNPL. Globally, November and December now account for roughly 15%–20% of annual retail sales, with an ever‑larger share flowing through digital channels.​

Several dynamics come together during this period:

• Transaction counts soar as shoppers take advantage of Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and extended holiday promotions.​

• BNPL usage spikes as consumers stretch fixed incomes to cover gifts, travel, and year‑end expenses without immediate full payment.​

• Cross‑border and online transactions rise as shoppers hunt for deals from international merchants, challenging payment networks to handle volume securely and at scale.​

On the infrastructure side, the holidays operate like a real‑time stress test. Payment platforms must manage surges in traffic, higher authorization rates, fraud attempts, chargebacks, and an influx of customer service issues—failed payments, duplicate charges, and refund requests—without downtime. The companies that consistently pass this test strengthen their relationships with merchants and consumers alike, reinforcing brand trust and long‑term market share.​

For investors, that makes digital payments a compelling way to play the holiday boom. While six weeks of elevated activity don’t determine an entire year’s earnings, they magnify the structural advantages of scale, technology, and trust that leading networks already possess.

The Digital Payments Tailwind: BNPL and Online Checkout

One of the most striking trends in recent years has been the rise of BNPL and alternative payment rails. As inflation and higher borrowing costs pressure household budgets, BNPL usage tends to climb into the holidays because it allows consumers to split purchases into smaller installments with clear repayment terms.​

In parallel, online and omnichannel spending continues to gain ground. In some markets, roughly 40% of holiday shopping is now carried out online, with adoption in the U.S. and Europe steadily rising each year. Major payment providers report double‑digit volume growth around Black Friday and Cyber Monday alone. One large European processor has publicly cited processing tens of billions of dollars in volume over that weekend, up more than 25% year over year—a sign of just how quickly digital transaction flows are scaling.​

Put together, these trends increasingly favor:

• Global card networks that take a small fee on every swipe, tap, and online checkout.​

• Payment platforms offering digital wallets and BNPL products embedded directly at checkout.​

• Fintechs that provide both consumer‑facing apps and merchant tools, capturing volume on both sides of the transaction.​

Among the public companies set up to benefit from these forces, three names stand out this holiday season and beyond.

Top 3 Holiday Fintech Stocks

Visa (NYSE:V): The Digital Toll Road of Global Spending

Visa is often described as a “toll road” for global commerce, and the analogy fits particularly well during the holidays. Every time a Visa‑branded card is swiped online or in‑store, Visa typically takes a small slice of the transaction. Unlike banks, the network generally does not extend credit itself; it provides the infrastructure and rules that connect consumers, issuers, and merchants. That leaves it less exposed to direct credit losses, even when macro conditions turn choppy.​

Holiday seasons accentuate the advantages of this model:

• Higher nominal spending levels translate directly into higher fee revenue, since many card fees are calculated as a percentage of transaction value. In periods of inflation, that effect can actually boost Visa’s top line even if the number of transactions grows more slowly.​

• Seasonal surges in e‑commerce and cross‑border purchases—think online shopping from international retailers or holiday travel—play directly into Visa’s strengths in global acceptance and fraud detection.​

While many investors chase the latest fintech disruptors or niche crypto payment apps, Visa keeps quietly processing billions of transactions daily, backed by decades of operational experience and regulatory compliance in over 200 countries and territories. Its scale creates a powerful moat: new entrants can innovate at the edge, but replicating the trust, merchant network, and risk controls of an incumbent like Visa is extraordinarily difficult.​

Looking ahead, Visa is also positioning itself for the next phase of financial technology. Management has been exploring ways to integrate blockchain‑based settlement and tokenized payments within its existing framework, a move that could open doors to new use cases without abandoning the low‑risk, toll‑road model that underpins its profitability.​

For investors seeking a relatively steady, cash‑generative way to participate in the digital payments boom, Visa remains a core candidate. The holiday season tends to act as a visible reminder of just how indispensable its network has become.

PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL): Holiday Tailwinds for a Global Digital Wallet and BNPL Player

PayPal sits at the center of the e‑commerce universe, operating one of the world’s largest digital wallet ecosystems and a widely used BNPL offering. The holiday season is especially important for this business model because of PayPal’s close integration with online merchants and platforms, including marketplaces, direct‑to‑consumer brands, and small businesses that rely on seamless checkout experiences.​

During peak shopping days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, PayPal tends to see a strong uptick in payment volume as consumers choose its branded checkout or mobile wallet options. The company also reports rising engagement for its BNPL product in recent holiday periods, reflecting a broader consumer shift toward installment‑based financing for purchases over a few hundred dollars.​

Despite its entrenched position, PayPal’s share price has come under pressure in 2025, leaving the stock trading at a discount relative to its historical valuation and to some high‑growth fintech peers. Yet the underlying business still benefits from:​

• A network of more than 400 million active accounts worldwide, which creates a powerful flywheel of repeat usage and merchant demand.​

• Multiple touchpoints, including traditional PayPal checkout, merchant services, peer‑to‑peer payments through Venmo, and BNPL—allowing it to monetize both sides of holiday transactions.​

• Ongoing investments in AI‑driven commerce and partnerships with leading technology companies to embed smarter, more personalized payment experiences into shopping journeys.​

The near‑term investor debate centers on whether PayPal can reignite growth and defend its margins as competition intensifies. However, the structural drivers behind its business—continued growth in e‑commerce, rising adoption of digital wallets, and mainstream acceptance of BNPL—are very much aligned with holiday shopping patterns.​

If management executes on product innovation and cost discipline, the combination of a depressed share price and robust payment volumes could make PayPal an intriguing candidate for investors looking to ride both this year’s holiday surge and the broader multi‑year expansion of digital spending.

Block (NYSE:XYZ): A High‑Beta Bet on the Digital Payments Ecosystem

Block—best known to many for its Square merchant terminals and Cash App mobile wallet—offers one of the most diversified and high‑growth profiles in the payments universe. The company spans small business point‑of‑sale (POS) hardware and software, peer‑to‑peer payments, merchant acquiring, and, increasingly, BNPL capabilities acquired through prior deals.​

The holiday season amplifies several of Block’s key strengths:

• Square’s POS and software suite powers countless small and mid‑sized merchants, which often see their highest sales volumes in November and December. That translates into higher payment processing volume and ancillary software revenue.​

• Cash App benefits from heightened peer‑to‑peer transfers, gifting, and cash card usage as consumers move money between friends and family or spend via debit‑linked accounts.​

• BNPL functionality embedded in both merchant and consumer interfaces allows Block to capture incremental volume as shoppers split payments for higher‑ticket items.​

Block’s management has laid out ambitious growth targets through the late 2020s, including plans for substantial revenue expansion and a multi‑billion‑dollar share repurchase program designed to return capital to investors. That combination of top‑line growth and buybacks can be particularly powerful if executed during periods when the stock trades at a discount to long‑term intrinsic value.​

The flip side is that Block tends to be more volatile than a mature network like Visa, with earnings and sentiment more sensitive to macro headlines, competition, and execution risk. For investors comfortable with that higher beta, however, the holiday season offers a live demonstration of how the company’s ecosystem serves both merchants and consumers in real time.​

Holiday Season Risks: When Volume Isn’t Everything

While the $1 trillion spending headline is impressive, it doesn’t guarantee a smooth ride for payments stocks in the near term. Several risks can complicate the picture after the decorations come down:

• Macroeconomic headwinds: Inflation, rising living costs, and lingering economic uncertainty can force households to pull back on discretionary purchases in early 2026, dampening overall transaction growth even if the holiday period itself is strong.​

• Credit and BNPL losses: BNPL providers and card issuers face elevated risk if consumers overextend during the holidays and struggle to repay installments in the new year. Rising delinquencies can offset volume gains, pressuring profitability.​

• Competitive pressure: Traditional banks and new fintechs are aggressively competing on fees, rewards, and merchant pricing, squeezing take rates in some segments and forcing incumbents to invest heavily in innovation.​

Customer service demands also spike during and after the holidays. Failed transactions, double charges, chargebacks, and refund requests put operational stress on payment providers’ support teams and dispute‑resolution systems. Firms that cannot scale these functions efficiently risk damaging their reputations with both merchants and consumers just as the sector becomes more crowded.​

That’s why due diligence matters. Investors should look not only at headline volume metrics but also at:

• Net revenue growth after accounting for incentives and fee pressure.

• Loss rates and credit provisioning, especially for BNPL or consumer lending exposure.

• Operating margins and cost discipline amid heavy tech and support spending.

The three companies highlighted here tend to score well on infrastructure, risk controls, and regulatory experience, which can help them navigate these challenges more effectively than smaller, less seasoned competitors.​

BNPL: A Structural Tailwind Beyond the Holidays

One area that deserves special attention is BNPL. Over the past three to four years, installment‑based payment methods have grown much faster than traditional cards or general digital wallets, particularly among younger consumers and online shoppers. The holiday season often functions as a showcase for BNPL, introducing new users who then continue to rely on flexible payments throughout the rest of the year.​

For investors, BNPL can be a double‑edged sword:

• On the positive side, it drives higher basket sizes and conversion rates for merchants, leading to greater payment volume and potentially higher revenue per customer for providers.​

• On the negative side, it adds credit risk and regulatory scrutiny, especially if underwriting standards are weak or disclosures are unclear.​

Large, established providers with robust data analytics, risk models, and balance sheets are better positioned to manage this tradeoff. Card networks and major digital wallets incorporating BNPL into their broader ecosystems can diversify risk across multiple products and revenue streams, rather than relying on BNPL as their primary business.

That makes diversified players like Visa, PayPal, and Block—each with its own way of integrating BNPL or installment functionality—arguably safer ways to gain exposure to this trend than pure‑play BNPL startups.

How to Approach Holiday‑Driven Fintech Opportunities as an Investor

For long‑term investors, the goal isn’t to guess which stock will pop the most between Black Friday and New Year’s Day. Instead, the holiday period should be viewed as an annual stress test and momentum check on the broader digital payments thesis.​

A few practical guidelines:

1. Focus on durable franchises, not seasonal hype.
   Card networks and major wallets with global networks, strong brands, and deep regulatory relationships tend to benefit from every holiday season—not just this year’s.

2. Watch volume, but prioritize profitability and risk controls.
   High transaction growth is only attractive if it comes with disciplined credit management and healthy margins after rewards, fees, and losses.

3. Treat BNPL as a long‑term structural trend.
   The holiday spike is helpful, but the real opportunity lies in year‑round adoption of flexible payments as a mainstream alternative to traditional credit.

4. Use volatility to your advantage.
   Payment stocks can be volatile around earnings and macro headlines. For investors with a multi‑year horizon, pullbacks driven by short‑term fear can be chances to build or add to positions.

5. Diversify within fintech.
   Holding a mix of mature networks, digital wallet platforms, and higher‑growth disruptors can balance stability with upside, smoothing out individual company risk.

The Bigger Picture: Holiday Spending as a Window Into the Future of Money

Every holiday season offers a snapshot of where consumer behavior is headed. In the early 2000s, the story was the rise of e‑commerce. A decade later, it was the spread of mobile checkout and tap‑to‑pay. Today, it’s the convergence of AI‑driven personalization, BNPL, and embedded payments that disappear into the background of apps and platforms.​

What doesn’t change is the critical role of the payment rails. When a trillion dollars moves in less than two months, the companies responsible for authorizing, routing, settling, and securing that river of transactions are central to how the modern economy functions.​

Visa, PayPal, and Block each approach that role from different angles—global card network, digital wallet and BNPL hub, and end‑to‑end merchant and consumer ecosystem. Together, they offer a diversified way to participate in both the immediate holiday surge and the long‑term shift toward a cashless, instant, and increasingly intelligent payments world.​

For investors willing to look past the wrapping paper and countdown clocks, that may be the most enduring gift this holiday season has to offer.

FAQ: Best 3 Stocks Ready to Profit from the $1T Holiday Boom