Jason Bodner (Palm Beach Trader): The Market Sell-Off Is Here

By Jason Bodner, editor, Palm Beach Trader

Since the beginning of the year, we’ve seen relentless buying in the market. It hasn’t mattered which sector it is, either…

Tech, utilities, financials, real estate, consumer staples, telecom. You name it, and the big money has been buying. And it’s reflecting in the amount of big-money buying activity in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

ETF trading activity is a major component of my stock-picking system (more on that in a moment). And year-to-date, my system has recorded relentless buying in the ETF world.

But now, cracks are starting to show – and that signals the market reset I predicted earlier this month is in the works.

The last three times my system pinpointed similar conditions – in February 2017, January 2018, and February 2019 – sell-offs occurred afterwards within days or weeks. The Russell 2000 dropped 3.1%, 9.8%, and 7.8%, respectively:

So today, I’ll tell you what the big money is doing – and how you should play it…


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Tracking the Big Money

To track big-money buying, I spent half a dozen years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to develop my “unbeatable” stock-picking system.

I used my experience from nearly two decades at prestigious Wall Street firms – trading more than $1 billion worth of stock for major clients – to make sure it’s highly accurate, comprehensive, and effective.

It scans nearly 5,500 stocks every day, using algorithms to rank each one for strength. It also looks for the movements of big-money investors. And when it sees them piling into or getting out of a stock, it raises a yellow flag.

I put these yellow flags through another filter. If the flag turns red, it means the big money is selling. If it turns green, it means the big money is buying…

It’s that simple: When I see green, the big money is buying.

But here’s the thing: My unbeatable system doesn’t just look at individual stocks. It can track big-money buying and selling in the broad market, too.

And right now, it’s still showing we’re in overbought territory…


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Buying Is Slowing Down

ETF buying is a good contrarian indicator. You see, retail (mom-and-pop) investors use ETFs to gain market exposure.

So when ETF buying is off the charts, buying has likely reached a peak – and is signaling it’s time to do the opposite. And after being scooped up like mad, my system is identifying decreasing ETF buying…

The one-year average for ETF buy signals is nine signals per day. But this past week, the system has recorded 17 signals per day. And over the past month, the average has been 20 signals per day.

Now, make no mistake, that’s still big buying activity in ETFs. Yet it also indicates we’re seeing a broader shift from buying to selling.

Take a look at the chart below. It shows my system’s ratio of big-money buying and selling…

When the ratio is at 80% (see the red line above) or more, it means buyers are in control and markets are overbought. And when it dips to 25% (the green line) or lower, sellers have taken the reins, leading the markets into oversold territory.

As you can see, each time the ratio has signaled overbought levels, it’s quickly fallen back within a few days or weeks. This means that the big money is selling again – causing the markets and prices to fall, too.


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And this is already starting to happen again. In fact, the Russell 2000 is already down about 3.7% since I sent out my warning on January 17.

Now, I don’t have a crystal ball. But I used my system to go back through a decade of data to see what might happen.

During the 15 similar setups in those 10 years, the sell-offs following overbought conditions lasted an average of just over three weeks. And the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost an average of 5.5%.

This pullback will be temporary, though. History tells us it’ll take a few days or weeks to dissipate. So right now, let’s wait out this healthy correction and have our shopping lists ready.

When my system turns green again, we’ll be able to re-enter this epic bull run at even lower prices. Many great companies will go on sale and hand us buying opportunities. And we’ll be ready to scoop them up at a discount.

Kyle Dennis FAST5 Trade Alerts | Full Week-by-week Breakdown

At some point, you gotta just laugh.

Because actually, the success of this service is unreal.

Fast5 has been live for 11 weeks, and 10 – TEN, PEOPLE! – of these alerts have been stone cold winning trades in 5 days or less.

Today’s was no exception.

The one loser? A measly 7% where we tactfully stopped out and preserved the maximum amount of capital.

FAST5 Trade Alerts – Here’s the full week-by-week breakdown.

Week One: +11% in I

Week Two: +25% in SRRA

Week Three: +28% in VSTM

Week Four: +38% in DMPI

Week Five: +14% in XXII

Week Six: +23% in LJPC

Week Seven: +7% in NOK

Week Eight: +50% in BB 

Week Nine: +15% in PRTY

Week Ten: -7% in PLUG

Week Eleven: DETAILS BELOW  — +33% in AEMD

Let’s dive into today’s trade in AEMD.

Here’s the exact email that went out to my Fast5 members this morning:

I send you this to show you exactly how easy this is to execute.

I not only give you a “BUY price,” but a BUY ZONE.

This way, you know exactly what range I’m comfortable owning the stock in.

Same for my Profit Zone and Stop Zone.

I make it a habit to go the extra mile for my members!

Between the time I sent out this paid alert this morning on AEMD and now (frankly, a matter of hours…), the stock price spiked up 33%.

I’ve spent years honing my stock selection skills, and I’ve developed a system that helps me spot weekly winners just like AEMD.

But here’s what you have to understand.

Stock selection is barely ⅓ of the battle.

Sure you need it to get your feet off the ground, but then I help you walk all the way to the bank…

Buy Zone – Stop Zone – Profit Zone – Trade Plan

I do all the heavy lifting, and all you have to do is plug and play…

Be Advised!

Fast 5 Trading Alerts Week 13 Results coming soon….

Next week I will alert Week 13’s Fast 5 trade.

You saw my *nearly – damn you, PLUG!* spotless track record, and I know you can put 2 and 2 together… it’s 4. And next week’s trade has these odds in its favor.

You do the math.

Fast 5 is your answer.

[Ed.note: Kyle Dennis runs BiotechBreakouts.com. He is an event-based trader, who prefers low-priced and small-cap biotech stocks.

To learn more JOIN THIS SPECIAL ONLINE EVENT: 3-Step Plan Kyle Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 and download his FREE “The $2.9 Million Biotech Trader Playbook here!]

Jeff Bishop’s Total Alpha Trading | Intermarket Analysis

Hold on to your knickers cause the markets are about to take us for a wild ride. With futures pointed to a massive decline at the open, we need to look at what’s in store for the indexes

The Federal Reserve delivers its first announcement of the year on Wednesday. Hamstrung by a fragile market and jawboning politicians, they’re widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The open question – will they soothe scared investors?

Jerome Powell already upended economists by allowing for U.S. inflation to rise above its 2% mandate – a statement that probably has Adam Smith turning in his grave.

Interestingly, we’ve managed to stay below historical levels, with the one exception being the period from the late ‘50s to the late ‘60s.

This leads me into the bond market as our first stop this week…a place that could rise further than we’ve seen already.

Bright Bond Outlook

Normally, I stick with the hourly chart when I look for setups that fit my money-pattern. However, the weekly chart for the bond market looks fascinating.

TLT Weekly Chart

Last week the bond market closed above the upper trendline that connected the high points of the candles since August. That signals bonds want to break higher out of this consolidation range.

Supported by an easy Fed, bond demand remains strong. With zero and negative interest rates around the globe, it’s an easy choice for investors. Plus, when the market finally pulls back, its inverse relationship with bonds will give it an extra push.

Markets Fired a Warning Shot

Friday’s close was different than the ones we’ve seen over the last month or so. Stocks traded weakly all day, closing in poor fashion.

SPY Hourly Chart

I first noticed the bearish money pattern crossover Friday where the 13-period moving average crossed below the 30-period moving average. Then, the market proceeded to fill the gap, and not only close at that level, but below the past couple of days. This is known as an ‘engulfing’ candle. When it happens like this at highs, it’s a bearish reversal.

The Nasdaq didn’t look as bad. But, it’s dangerously close to making a bearish crossover as well.

QQQ Hourly Chart

Now you may ask, why would this bearish crossover be any different than the light pullback we got at the end of December?

The difference is how it occurred. December’s ranged didn’t extend as far as this decline in a single day. The entire move in December was 1% from top to bottom over two days. Friday’s was 1.55% in a single day.

But let’s look at the other evidence out there.

A Significant Rise In The VIX

Back in December, the VIX hardly budged as the market rolled over. Compare that with what Friday’s move looked like in the VIX.

VIX Daily Chart

The strength behind this move was more powerful than December’s. The only saving grace was that it didn’t close above the 200-period daily moving average Friday. But I think that is only a matter of time.

Another point in favor of this decline comes from the VVIX. The VVIX, which measures demand on the VIX, actually declined on the rise in the VIX at the end of December. Friday the VVIX climbed alongside the VIX as markets fell.

VVIX Daily Chart

This is more indicative of a sustainable pullback. It would make sense given how in 2018, markets ran straight up for a month before pulling back. We’re pretty close to that timing now.

Gold Looks Glorious

I added call options in the GLD last week to my Total Alpha portfolio. Gold’s chart depicts a bullish market ready to break higher.

When I look at the hourly GLD chart, I see a bullish crossover as well as a consolidation pattern near the upper end of the trading range.

GLD Hourly Chart

GLD came close to touching the hold highs Friday. The longer it hovers here, the more likely it breaks through to much higher levels. A downdraft in the markets would certainly help this along.

Crude Looking For a Bottom

I’ll admit I’m surprised at how far crude has fallen. However, that aligns with why I would expect a pullback in stocks.

At this point, crude oil will want to test its previous lows. In the USO that coincides with $10.50-$11.00. Breaking those levels would require a lot more selling pressure than we’ve seen so far.

USO Daily Chart

Part of why I’m looking for a bottom in crude oil is its volatility. Like the S&P 500, crude oil has its own volatility measure. Right now the OVIX is at pretty high levels.

OVIX Daily Chart

That’s not to say that oil volatility is at record levels. Rather, it’s at relatively high levels. So it certainly can go lower. But, the OVIX is mean-reverting and is overextended in the short-term.

Betting Against China

Before the Coronavirus hit the wires, I already had an option bet against Chinese stocks. This paid me over 100%, and I still have part of the position.

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Source: TotalAlphaTrading.com | Original Link

Teeka Tiwari’s Most Radical Idea Ever

By Teeka Tiwari, editor, Palm Beach Daily

Today, I’m going to talk to you about an idea you’re not going to want to believe. An idea so radical, you’re going to think, “This guy is crazy… Get him off the stage.”

On October 24, 2014, I made that statement to a sold-out audience at our annual PBRG Infinity conference. It’s an exclusive event reserved for our best subscribers.

I was new to the PBRG team at the time. So everyone was skeptical of what I had to say.

I took the stage feeling like Galileo during the Inquisition.

Galileo challenged Church orthodoxy that the Earth was at the center of the solar system. Instead, he said the Earth moved around the sun.

It was an idea so radical, people couldn’t wrap their heads around it.

The Church eventually convicted him of heresy. That was why my first presentation slide showed an image of Galileo tied to a stake, about to be burned alive.

Back in 2014, I shared an idea no one believed. People thought I was nuts. Even worse, some people thought I was delusional.

Even today, I doubt you’ll want to hear what I have to say… let alone believe it. But it’s a message I’ll be spreading for the next 10 years.

All I ask of you is what I asked the Infinity audience back in 2014: “Please keep an open mind.”


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The Golden Ratio

In October 2014, the current bull market was just over five years old. The S&P 500 was above 2,000.

But like now, many investors back then didn’t believe it could continue roaring higher.

Yet, I stood there and told the audience that a “golden ratio” would kick off a massive bull market for the ages. And it would continue marching higher for years to come.

Since then, of course, we’ve seen the market rise 83.4%, if you include dividends.

You can click here or the image below to watch the entire speech…

At the time, I called this phenomenon the Golden Ratio.

I won’t go into all the details of how the ratio works… But it occurs when the ratio between middle-aged people and young people shifts.

When the number of people in the 35–49 age bracket grows larger than that of the 20–34 age group, it triggers a secular or long-term bull market.

It makes sense when you think about it. Most people in the 35–49 age range are earning a lot more money at their jobs, and they’re spending more to support their families. That’s good for the economy as a whole.

When the Golden Ratio is in effect, GDP grows faster, corporations make more profits, and the stock market rises faster.

And according to Census Bureau projections, the median age of Americans will rise significantly between 2020 and 2050 as the number of older people surpass the number of younger people.

Now, in late 2014, the stock market had already nearly tripled from its bottom during the Great Recession. So I imagine some people thought it was weird to hear about a bull market just getting started… five years into one.

Since then, the market has reached record highs. But I’m here to tell you – you’ve seen nothing yet…


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Another Decade Ahead

My research shows we’re still in the early stages of this bull market.

I won’t go into all the details here. But what I will share with you is this: My research suggests you still have about 10 years left to make money from equities.

Sure, the market may drop again. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever.

For instance, in late 2015, the market got hammered 19% in a matter of a couple months. Here I was, banging the drum on a huge macro bull call… and the market dropped like a rock.

My call looked like a bad one, even though I had warned my audience we would see multiple 20% – and sometimes 30% – drops along the way up.

What I told my audience then – and what I’ll tell you now – was to use any of these pullbacks to buy more stocks.

Just like 2014, I’m seeing negative sentiment by individual investors on stocks. Sure, they’re expensive… But when the Golden Ratio is active, valuations stay high for years.


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The beauty of being in a Golden Ratio bull market like we’re in now is, even if you have lousy timing and buy the market at the top, within a year, you’ll be back in the black.

With a historical backstop like that, you must be in stocks. Don’t fret over getting the perfect price. Just buy quality blue chips or broad-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and you’ll crush the performance of most fund managers trying to time the market.

If you’re uncomfortable going all in now… then simply invest a little each week or each month. The point is to get your money out of cash and working for you in stocks.

The easiest thing to do right now is to be bearish on the stock market. But anytime something is emotionally easy for you… you must question it.

Emotions are a terrible guide when it comes to investing. So if you’re comfortable being bearish, I want you to question the assumptions you’re making.

Kyle Dennis FAST 5 Trade Review (2020)

I want to show you why it’s important to conduct due diligence when you trade or invest in stocks — and Kyle Dennis Fast 5 Trades method to find high-conviction trade ideas. Read my full Kyle Dennis Fast 5 Trade Alerts Review. That way you could prevent yourself from being trapped in schemes like the one I’m going to reveal.

I’m sure someone at some point has told you before: You have to get in on the cannabis “gold rush” before it’s too late. But let me tell you something, it’s not all glitz and glam in the industry. In fact, pot stocks get a bad rap for a reason.

A few rotten apples run these companies with one goal in mind — to scam investors and line their pockets with millions of stolen dollars… as they buy an obscene amount of luxury items with investors’ hard-earned cash.

Today, I’ve got a story that will grind your gears that involves a duo who defrauded investors of more than $4.85M… and there’s a lesson to be learned here.

Dirty Duo Defrauds Investors of At Least $4.85M

Guy Scott Griffithe and Robert William Russell controlled Green Acres Pharms, SMRB, and Renewable Technologies Solutions. This duo — with the aid of their companies — allegedly executed a scheme to defraud over 25 investors of at least $4.85 million with their recreational cannabis company securities offering.

Here’s how the elaborate scheme went down.

Griffithe and Russel sold fugazi (fake) ownership interests in Russel’s company, SMRB, to investors for 2.5 years. SMRB was a Washington state company that held a sacred license to grow and process pot under recreational cannabis laws. They could’ve done things the right way… but they chose not to.

Soon Griffithe and Russel began to sell securities through Griffithe’s companies Renewable Technologies Solutions and Green Acres Pharms. The duo claimed both these companies held a minority interest in SMRB.

Here’s the kicker: the dirty duo told investors that their hard-earned cash would go to the operation and the improvement of the SMRB’s cannabis business.

Of course, if you’re an investor and hear this… you would be enticed to put more money in. You see, by improving SMRB’s business it would result in a shower of profits that then would be distributed to investors quarterly. Of course, in direct proportion to what they put into the company.

Investors forked over millions to get in on this budding market (I don’t blame them, especially when you’ve got the head of companies telling you they’re trying to grow their businesses)… but if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

The worst part about this scheme is the fact the cannabis company securities sold by the duo sold to over 25 investors weren’t even worth the cost of a single rolling paper. They were 100% fake. The investors had no stake in SMRB… their money just disappeared. A $4.85 million trick played on investors.

What The Two Did With Millions Of Dollars

Disclaimer ── If you aren’t sitting down do so before reading this!

Griffithe would personally misappropriate over $1.8 million of investors’ funds.

What’d he do with all the money?

He purchased a 2015 Porsche Panamera, a 2013 Ford Mustang, a 2012 Mercedes Benz C Class, and a 2008 Bentley Continental.

And that’s just the vehicles he was cruising down the highway in! He bought something he could cruise the sea in too, putting $25,000 towards 42 ft Hydrasport custom powerboat.

Russel and his wife Sonja Marie Russel would misuse investors funds to the tune of about $1.7 million. A majority of which went directly into their personal bank accounts.

But the Russel family wouldn’t be out shined by Griffithe’s new boat. Obviously, they need something bigger, better, and grander. Resulting in them buying an even larger boat ── I guess you could say yacht. $250K of what Russel took from investors went towards a 65 ft Pacific Mariner yacht. Which would make Griffithe 42 ft boat look like a child’s play toy.

The SEC is out to make an example.

“As alleged in our complaint, Griffithe and Russell exploited popular interest in the cannabis industry to obtain millions of dollars from investors who thought they were buying into a profitable business… “Instead, Griffithe and Russell deceived investors and used the money to enrich themselves”, declared Associate Director Hodgeman.

They are seeking the return of the ill-gotten gains with interest and added civil penalties.

Hopefully, these 2 didn’t grow too used to their plush new toys.

Of course, we want to avoid companies like this at all costs.

So what’s my solution to this problem?

Fast 5 Trades.

Let me show you how it all works.

Don’t Get Caught Up In Stock Schemes… Start Finding High Conviction Trade Ideas

In my most recent Fast 5 winner, I spotted a trade setup in Party City (PRTY). Of course, before I even put my money behind the idea… I conducted my due diligence.

Here’s exactly what I sent out to my clients:

(Missed out on this alert? Sorry… but you don’t have to miss any more. Click here to see how Fast 5 Trades could help you achieve trading success)

If you look at the Fast 5 Trade alert above, everything was written out for my clients… all they had to do was execute. The best part: they didn’t have to worry about being caught up in a wild scheme.

Why?

Well, the holding period for Fast 5 Trades is 5 days or less. The goal is to be in on Monday and out before Friday. Let me break it down, and show you why this could be a solution for finding the best plays out there.

There was a positive catalyst (insider buying). Not only that, but there was a bullish chart setup. I don’t know about you… but if insiders are buying a stock, that’s a signal there could be some news on the way.

Of course, it’s not enough to just have a trade idea… it’s important to have a clear trade plan with buy, stop-loss, and target zones. Now, if you received the alert and followed the plan… you could’ve locked in a 15% winner real quick.

The best part: I don’t just alert Fast 5 clients and leave them hanging I actually break down the trade after.

Here’s a screenshot of what I sent out to clients after the trade went down… so they know what to do the next time they see a similar setup.

That’s really all it takes… execute the trade and wait for the trade break down to study it. That way, you could avoid getting caught up in Wall Street scandals.

Let Fast 5 Trades be your advantage in the sea of dirty players on Wall Street.

[Ed.note: Kyle Dennis runs BiotechBreakouts.com. He is an event-based trader, who prefers low-priced and small-cap biotech stocks.

To learn more JOIN THIS SPECIAL ONLINE EVENT: 3-Step Plan Kyle Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 and download his FREE “The $2.9 Million Biotech Trader Playbook here!]

Source: Biotechbreakouts.com | Original Link