As we move into 2025, the retail landscape continues to evolve, presenting both challenges and opportunities for major players in the industry. Macy’s, a stalwart of American retail, recently released its sales and profit forecasts for the upcoming year, revealing a performance outlook that has fallen short of market expectations.
Macy’s 2025 Sales and Profit Forecasts Fall Below Expectations
On Thursday, Macy’s anticipated annual sales and profits to fall short of Wall Street’s projections, joining a wave of U.S. retailers indicating that shoppers are hesitant to purchase clothing and accessories amid growing economic uncertainty.
The department store, which heavily sources its self-branded products from China, is poised to be adversely affected by President Trump’s recently imposed tariffs, which are likely to further strain already tightened household budgets in the U.S.
Retail giants, including Walmart and Target, have also provided cautious forecasts for the upcoming year due to concerns over possible surges in product pricing across various sectors ranging from food to electronics, which may deter consumer spending.
Macy’s projects net sales for 2025 to fall between $21 billion and $21.4 billion, lower than the analyst consensus of $21.81 billion, according to LSEG data.
The retailer anticipates annual adjusted profit per share to be between $2.05 and $2.25, compared to estimates of $2.31.
Additionally, the company plans to resume share buybacks under its $1.4 billion repurchase authorization.
The Macy’s flagship stores recorded a 0.9% decline in comparable sales on an owned-plus-licensed basis in the last quarter.
Since taking the reins last year, CEO Tony Spring has outlined a strategy to revitalize the struggling department chain by closing 150 Macy’s locations by 2026.
Macy’s aims to increase sales through the expansion of its higher-growth Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury’s luxury divisions, both of which recorded solid comparable sales growth of 4.8% and 6.2%, respectively, in the reported quarter.
In its fourth-quarter results, Macy’s sales dipped by 4.3% to $7.77 billion, compared to the analysts’ estimate of $7.87 billion.
The company had previously indicated that its net sales might trend at or slightly below the low end of the $7.8 billion to $8 billion forecast.
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Wall Street in Turmoil: Dow Drops 400 Points on Tariff Confusion
On Thursday, stock futures faced a downturn as investors eagerly awaited more information regarding the latest U.S. tariff policies.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply by 414 points, representing roughly a 1% decline. Likewise, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures also plummeted more than 1%.
New tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China took effect this week, prompting retaliatory measures from Canada and China, while Mexico hinted at introducing its own actions over the weekend.
The major indices struggled throughout the week, each down more than 1% to date, although they experienced a slight recovery on Wednesday when the White House announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs for automakers meeting the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement criteria. This development sparked traders’ hopes for additional exemptions from President Trump.
Nonetheless, some market analysts expressed doubts regarding the real impact of these exemptions.
“Granting auto manufacturers a mere month of relief from harsh tariffs is akin to applying a Band-Aid to a gunshot wound… particularly given the avalanche of tariff announcements the White House has planned for the near future,” noted Adam Crisafulli from Vital Knowledge.
Adding to the market’s struggles was a calamitous retreat from the once-popular artificial intelligence investment trend, which had buoyed stocks for over a year.
Chipmaker Marvell Technology saw a more than 16% drop after delivering mixed guidance for its first quarter; however, its fourth-quarter results did surpass analysts’ expectations. Other semiconductor firms like ON Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Nvidia faced declines in premarket trading as well.
Additionally, business surveys released this week, including the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing assessment, highlighted growing concerns over increasing input costs tied to the tariffs, coupled with escalating uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies.
Treasury Yields Rise as Investors Analyze Possible Tariff Relief
On Thursday, U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors reacted positively to the prospect of tariff exemptions while keeping an eye on crucial job market data.
As of 6:48 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose by over four basis points, reaching 4.309%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased by one basis point to 3.994%.
One basis point equates to 0.01%, and it’s important to note that as yields ascend, prices generally drop.
Investors are expressing a sense of optimism about potential tariff exemptions following news from The White House about a one-month tariff holiday for automotive manufacturers complying with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
“Reciprocal tariffs will commence on April 2, but at the request of those involved with USMCA, the president has allowed a month’s exemption to prevent economic disadvantage,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt remarked on behalf of President Trump.
Earlier this week, Trump initiated 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Responses from Canada, Mexico, and China have signaled reciprocal actions.
Market participants are also monitoring Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, as well as the essential non-farm payroll figures set to be released on Friday.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid indicated that Treasury yields had escalated following the announcement regarding auto tariff delays.
“Treasury bonds previously oscillated noticeably amidst mixed U.S. data. The 2-year yield dropped as low as 3.89% following a disappointing ADP report for February payrolls,” he remarked. “However, yields rebounded soon after, as the ISM services index offered a much brighter outlook.”
PBF Energy’s Martinez Refinery Repairs Estimated at $30 Million
On Thursday, PBF Energy, an independent U.S. refiner, announced it has initiated repairs at its fire-affected Martinez refinery in California, projecting the repair costs to be around $30 million.
The fire erupted on February 1 near a hydrotreater, crucial for refining, as company executives detailed during their fourth-quarter earnings discussion.
The resulting shutdown will impact initial quarter production, as previously mentioned.
PBF anticipates that certain refinery units, including the crude unit, aim to restart early in the second quarter of 2025, with all other units expected to be operational by the fourth quarter.
Total output during this initial phase is projected to range between 85,000 and 105,000 barrels per day.
PBF expects that the repair costs will be mainly covered by insurance, with business interruption insurance aiding in mitigating the financial ramifications of the downtime.
Apple Introduces Upgraded MacBook Air Line at Reduced Price
On Wednesday, Apple unveiled new models of its MacBook Air, refreshing the popular laptop with a powerful M4 chip and an enhanced videoconferencing camera.
In a surprising move, the laptops would also see a $100 price reduction in the U.S., despite the tariffs recently imposed by President Trump that may potentially increase electronics prices.
New iterations of the 13-inch MacBook Air will begin at $999, while the larger 15-inch model will kick off at $1,099, with options for additional memory and storage upgrades.
Though the design remains consistent with last year’s model, Apple introduces a bold new sky blue color, along with support for connecting up to three external monitors. These updated MacBook Air models are set to go on sale March 12.
The MacBook Air stands as one of Apple’s flagship products, with Mac sales climbing 15% in the December quarter to just shy of $9 billion. This rise has been attributed to increased demand for laptops, despite an overall decline in Mac sales, reflecting a post-pandemic cool-off after elevated sales during the peak work-from-home era.
Apple’s announcement of the new MacBook Air comes amid a whirlwind of product unveilings over recent weeks.
Alongside the laptops, Apple unveiled a state-of-the-art Mac Studio desktop boasting a chip designed for advanced AI functions. This new high-performance machine starts at $1,999, and custom configurations can reach upwards of $14,000.
The decision to reduce the MacBook Air price aligns with a keen eye from both Apple customers and investors regarding how the company will respond to the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration.
Notably, the new iPad Air launched this week retained its starting price of $599. The fresh iPhone 16e, however, comes at $599, effectively replacing the previous low-cost model introduced in 2022, which started at $429.
Bank of America Securities analysts projected that PC manufacturers, including Apple, would likely transfer increased costs to consumers. In fact, Acer reported price hikes in laptop models last month as a direct consequence of U.S. tariffs.
“Tariffs on imported PCs function as a tax that manufacturers typically pass on to the end-user,” commented Bank of America analysts.
Given that a significant portion of Apple’s products are produced in China, they may be susceptible to two sets of 10% tariffs levied by Trump on Chinese imports, raising concerns of retaliatory actions from China that could impact Apple’s operations and third-largest market.
In January, Apple CEO Tim Cook had a meeting with Trump at the White House, where Trump remarked that Apple is keen to avoid the tariffs. Cook previously assured investors that Apple was “monitoring the developments closely.”
In recent years, Apple has diversified its supply chain, relocating some assembly of Macs to Malaysia and Vietnam, thus circumventing Chinese import tariffs. However, the company did not specify the production locations for the new MacBook Air models.
