Garrett Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV targets 100x gold miner gains using Buffett Indicator’s 209% warning. But, is it legit?
Key Takeaways: Garrett Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV leverages the Buffett Indicator’s 209% warning to pitch four small gold miners with up to 100x potential, driven by a rare “Golden Anomaly” where profits soar but stock prices lag. Fueled by Trump’s mining reforms and a global gold revaluation, the $189 portfolio offers a low-risk shot at massive gains in a decade-long gold boom, though risks like market timing and mining challenges remain.
The Buffett Indicator: A Signal That Moves Markets
The financial world leans on signals to make sense of chaos, and few carry the weight of Warren Buffett’s favorite tool, the Buffett Indicator.
It’s a simple ratio: total stock market capitalization divided by the non-financial economy’s GDP—Wall Street versus Main Street. When it climbs too high, it’s a warning that stocks are overvalued, and smart investors start looking for safer bets. As of today, it’s above 209%, the highest ever recorded, screaming that stocks, especially tech giants like the Magnificent Seven, are in risky territory.
Garrett Goggin, a gold analyst with a sharp eye for opportunity, uses this signal to fuel his Golden Portfolio IV (GPIV), pitching four small gold miners with the potential for 100x returns. He ties this to a rare market gap he calls the “Golden Anomaly,” where miners’ profits soar but their stock prices lag.
Goggin predicts a decade-long gold boom as stocks falter, driven by this indicator and global shifts. But is the Buffett Indicator as reliable as he claims, and does his portfolio deliver? Let’s break down the indicator, Goggin’s strategy, and the forces pushing gold higher.
What Is the Buffett Indicator?
The Buffett Indicator is dead simple. It compares the total value of stocks to the GDP of the non-financial economy. When it rises above 120%, stocks are getting expensive. Above 140%, it’s bubble territory. At 200% or more, Buffett himself warns you’re “playing with fire.”
Right now, above 209%, it’s signaling a historic overvaluation. This isn’t just a number—it’s been a guide for Buffett’s biggest moves, helping him sidestep crashes and pile into undervalued assets. Goggin leans on it to argue that stocks, particularly growth names like Nvidia or Tesla, are set to underperform, while gold and its miners are poised for a massive run.
A Track Record of Warning and Winning
The indicator’s history backs its clout. In 1969, it flagged the Nifty-Fifty bubble; stocks crashed 48% while gold soared from $35 to $850 by 1980—a 24x move. In the early 2000s, it hit 145% before the dot-com bust, with the NASDAQ plunging 80% and gold climbing from $250 to $1,900 over a decade—a 7.5x gain. Back in the 1920s, before the Great Depression, it would’ve pointed to a 90% stock crash while Homestake Mining, a gold miner, jumped 518%. Goggin calls it 100% accurate for these major shifts, and with today’s above 209% reading, he sees a repeat: stocks tanking, gold surging.
Garrett Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV: The Pitch
Who Is Garrett Goggin?
Goggin isn’t your typical analyst. A Certified Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT), he’s one of 200,000 CFAs worldwide, with training equivalent to a PhD. Unlike desk-bound analysts, he travels to mines, meets management, and digs into assets firsthand. His 15 years at Stansberry Research, mentored by gold investing legend John Doody, honed his ability to spot winners. Past picks include Newmarket Gold and SilverCrest Metals, with gains like 2,038% and 8,358%. Now independent, Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV aims to help regular investors catch the next gold wave with four small miners poised for explosive returns.
The Golden Anomaly Explained
At the heart of Goggin’s strategy is the “Golden Anomaly”—a rare gap where a miner’s profits (measured as free cash flow, or FCF) explode, but its stock price doesn’t follow. This discrepancy, between a company’s market cap and its net asset value (NAV—the total FCF over a mine’s life), lets you buy a dollar’s worth of value for cents. Goggin claims his four picks are trading at discounts up to 96%, with potential to turn small stakes into fortunes. He points to SilverCrest Metals, which delivered an 83x return when its anomaly closed, as proof this works.
Why Gold? The Case for a Decade-Long Boom
The Buffett Indicator’s Gold Signal
When the Buffett Indicator spikes, as it has now at above 209%, it’s not just a sell signal for stocks—it’s a buy signal for real assets like gold.
Stocks rely on earnings and market sentiment, but gold thrives when trust in paper assets fades. With U.S. debt at $36 trillion, plus $100 trillion in future liabilities and $30 trillion more expected by 2028, governments are printing money to keep up. This slashes the dollar’s purchasing power—down 46% against gold since September 2022.
Goggin predicts gold could hit $9,250 an ounce, driven by this currency debasement and a global shift toward gold as a safe haven.
Central Banks and the Monetary Reset
Central banks are moving fast. From Germany to China, they’re dumping U.S. Treasuries and buying gold at record rates. Russia, holding 13% of GDP in gold after the U.S. seized $300 billion of its dollar reserves, is a prime example. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has reinstated gold as a Tier 1 asset. Goggin calls these “Gold Re-Valuation Accounts,” a clear hint from the world’s top monetary authority. Yet retail investors are ignoring gold, with ETF interest at historic lows despite its price breaking $3,000. This disconnect fuels the Golden Anomaly Goggin’s targeting.
Trump’s Role: A Policy Push for Gold
The Executive Order Changing Mining
On March 20, Trump signed an executive order using the Defense Production Act to cut mining permit times from a decade to ten days. This is a game-changer for Goggin’s picks, especially one with a Nevada project holding 16 million ounces of gold, set to produce 2 million ounces annually. Faster permits mean quicker profits, boosting mine values. Trump’s move isn’t just about mining—it’s about positioning the U.S. for a monetary reset where gold anchors trust. With $36 trillion in debt and deficits piling up, Goggin sees Trump preparing for a system where gold regains its role as real money.
Why It Matters Now
Trump’s policies align with global trends. Central banks, wary of a weakening dollar, are hoarding gold. China bans gold exports, while Russia and others take physical delivery. The BIS’s Tier 1 move signals banks must hold more gold by mid-2025. Goggin argues this isn’t just a price spike—it’s a structural shift. Trump’s order ensures U.S. miners can compete, making Goggin’s picks timely bets for a gold-driven future.
The Golden Portfolio IV: Four Miners, One Big Bet
Pick #1: High-Grade, High Potential
Goggin’s first pick has a market cap of $300 million but an NAV of $1 billion, like buying gold at $1,255 an ounce—a 56% discount. Its ore grades hit 74 grams per tonne, among the highest ever, and it owns the sixth-ranked trophy asset globally. This miner’s in the “sweet spot,” with permits and financing done, ready to ramp up production.
Pick #2: Massive Discount, Massive Upside
The second pick, with a $77 million market cap and $2.8 billion NAV, trades like gold at $1,141—a 60% discount. Its grades reach 13.2 grams per tonne, 13 times the average, with a million ounces in an open-pit mine that’s 90% recoverable. It’s positioned for anomaly-sized profits as production scales.
Pick #3: Low Cost, High Reward
The third miner, with a $50 million market cap and $1.56 billion NAV, is like buying gold at $113—an astonishing 96% discount. Its 2.5 grams per tonne deposit is among the highest for open-pit mines, with 3.6 million ounces of easy-to-access gold. Led by a former banking executive, it’s in the top 25% for productivity and bottom 25% for costs.
Pick #4: Derisked and Ready
The fourth pick, 20% owned by a top mining family, has a $500 million market cap and $2.2 billion NAV, like gold at $570—an 80% discount. Its trophy asset is derisked, with permits and capital secured, in a region where gold is mined 40% faster than average. Already up 3x in 2024, it’s a sign of strong momentum.
Bonus Pick #5: A Late Entry with Big Promise
For $189, you also get a fifth pick—a miner entering production in 2026 with a $394 million market cap and $2.28 billion NAV, an 83% discount. Its 5 million ounces are near the surface, with an all-in sustaining cost of $979 per ounce, yielding over $2,000 profit per ounce at $3,000 gold. Led by a CEO with a $1.2 billion win in Peru, it’s a low-cost, high-upside play.
Is the Buffett Indicator Really 100% Accurate?
The Case for Reliability
Goggin calls the Buffett Indicator 100% accurate, citing its warnings before the 1929, 1969, and 2000 crashes. Each time, stocks fell hard, and gold or its miners soared. The current 209% reading aligns with those moments, suggesting a rotation to real assets. Historical data supports this: gold’s 24x, 7.5x, and 5x runs followed high readings. Goggin’s confidence rests on this pattern, amplified by today’s debt and currency pressures.
The Skeptic’s View
No indicator is perfect. The Buffett Indicator measures broad market valuation, not specific sectors. Stocks could stay inflated longer if AI hype or other factors persist. Gold’s past surges tied to inflation and geopolitics, not just the indicator. While 209% is a red flag, the timing of a crash or gold boom isn’t certain. Goggin’s decade-long prediction assumes a swift rotation, which may take time.
Risks and Rewards of the Golden Portfolio IV
The Upside Potential
For $189, Golden Portfolio IV gives you the names and tickers of four miners, plus the bonus pick, a starter guide, quarterly updates, and live portfolio data. Goggin’s past wins—101%, 114%, 2,038%, 8,358%—show his knack for spotting anomalies. With discounts up to 96%, a $1,000 stake per pick could become $100,000 if the mania hits. The Nevada pick benefits directly from Trump’s order, while global revaluation trends support all five.
The Mining Minefield
Mining isn’t easy. Political risks, environmental protests, and cost overruns can derail even good projects. Goggin mitigates this by picking high-grade, low-cost miners in stable regions, with permits secured. Still, gold’s price isn’t guaranteed to hit $9,250, and retail interest could stay low, delaying the anomaly’s closure. A full mania depends on broader market shifts, which aren’t certain.
Why This Matters Now
The world’s financial system is under strain. U.S. debt, currency debasement, and central bank gold buying point to a reset where gold takes center stage. Trump’s policies, from mining reform to preparing for a new monetary system, align with this.
Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV isn’t about ETFs or bullion—it’s about miners where high FCF and low market caps create a rare opportunity. For $189, you get a front-row seat to a potential 100x play. If Goggin’s right, a small stake could reshape your finances. If not, the risk is minimal—a smart bet in a world where gold’s role is growing.
FAQ: Golden Portfolio IV Review – Is Garrett Goggin’s Buffett Indicator Legit?
What is Garrett Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV?
Garrett Goggin’s Golden Portfolio IV (GPIV) is an investment guide costing $189, featuring four small gold mining companies with potential for 100x returns, plus a bonus fifth pick. It includes a starter guide for gold investing, quarterly updates, and access to a live model portfolio with real-time data. Goggin, a CFA and CMT, targets miners with high-grade ore, strong free cash flow (FCF), and a “Golden Anomaly”—where profits soar but stock prices lag, offering deep discounts up to 96%.
What is the Buffett Indicator, and why does it matter?
The Buffett Indicator compares total stock market capitalization to non-financial GDP, signaling overvaluation when high. At 209% in March 2025, it’s at a historic peak, warning of a stock market bubble. Goggin cites its accuracy in predicting crashes (1929, 1969, 2000), followed by gold surges (24x, 7.5x, 5x). He argues it signals a decade-long gold boom as investors shift from overvalued stocks to real assets like gold.
What is the “Golden Anomaly” in Goggin’s strategy?
The Golden Anomaly is a market gap where a miner’s FCF (profits) far exceeds its market cap, letting investors buy a dollar’s worth of value for cents. Goggin’s four picks have discounts of 56% to 96%, with net asset values (NAV) far above their stock prices. For example, one miner has a $50 million market cap but $1.56 billion NAV, like buying gold at $113/oz. Past wins like SilverCrest Metals (83x return) show the anomaly’s potential.
What are the four gold miners in the Golden Portfolio IV?
Goggin’s picks are small miners with high upside:
Pick #1: $300M market cap, $1B NAV, 74 g/t ore, 56% discount ($1,255/oz).
Pick #2: $77M market cap, $2.8B NAV, 13.2 g/t ore, 60% discount ($1,141/oz).
Pick #3: $50M market cap, $1.56B NAV, 2.5 g/t ore, 96% discount ($113/oz).
Pick #4: $500M market cap, $2.2B NAV, 13 g/t ore, 80% discount ($570/oz). A bonus fifth pick, entering production in 2026, has a $394M market cap, $2.28B NAV, and an 83% discount.
How does Trump’s policy impact these miners?
On March 20, Trump signed an executive order using the Defense Production Act to reduce mining permit times from a decade to ten days. This directly boosts one pick with a Nevada project holding 16 million ounces, set to produce 2 million ounces annually. Faster permits mean quicker profits, increasing mine values and aligning with a potential gold revaluation driven by global financial shifts.
Is the Buffett Indicator 100% accurate?
Goggin claims the Buffett Indicator is 100% accurate, citing its warnings before the 1929 (90% stock crash), 1969 (48% crash), and 2000 (80% NASDAQ crash) downturns, each followed by gold surges. However, it measures broad market valuation, not specific sectors. Stocks could stay inflated longer due to AI hype or other factors, delaying the gold boom. Its reliability depends on timing and external triggers like geopolitics.
What do you get for the $189 price of Golden Portfolio IV?
For $189, you receive the names and tickers of four miners, a bonus fifth pick, a starter guide on gold investing, quarterly updates, and access to a live model portfolio with real-time data. The guide covers finding high-return miners and strategies for future gold price dips. All picks are accessible through major brokers, requiring only a small stake for potential life-changing returns.
Why focus on small gold miners instead of ETFs or bullion?
Goggin dismisses gold ETFs, which underperformed the S&P 500 by 14% in 2024 despite gold’s 40% rise, and bullion, which is expensive at $3,000+/oz with high storage costs. Small miners, with high FCF and low market caps, offer 100x potential when their anomalies close, unlike larger miners (e.g., Newmont) or ETFs, which lack the same upside.
What are the risks of investing in these miners?
Mining faces challenges like political risks, environmental protests, and cost overruns. Goggin mitigates this by selecting high-grade, low-cost miners in stable regions with permits secured. However, gold prices could stall, retail interest may remain low, and a full mania depends on broader market shifts, which aren’t guaranteed, posing risks to the 100x potential.
