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Your Bias Against These Stocks Is Costing You Money

By Brian Tycangco, analyst, True Wealth Opportunities: China

China and President Trump have something in common…

It seems like 99% of their news coverage in the U.S. is bad.

The problem for China is that unlike Trump, it doesn’t have a Twitter account with 62 million followers.

That’s partly China’s fault… because it bans the use of Twitter. It can’t redirect the narrative being strewn on the mainstream media.

And it can’t effectively counter Trump’s China-bashing tweets, including his most recent…

China’s 2nd Quarter growth is the slowest it has been in more than 27 years. The United States Tariffs are having a major effect on companies wanting to leave China for non-tariffed countries. Thousands of companies are leaving. This is why China wants to make a deal with the U.S., and wishes it had not broken the original deal in the first place…

Look, I’m no preacher for all things China. But you can see why it’s easy to develop a bias against the world’s second-largest economy.

The problem is, bias against China could be costing you a lot of money.

Let me explain…

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Former hedge fund manager with a long track record of accurate predictions says a huge shift is coming towards the U.S. stock market in as little as 6 months that will determine who gets wealthy in America and who gets left behind.

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With the S&P 500 Index up 20.4% for the year, the U.S. stock market is the envy of the world right now.

Most folks haven’t realized it, but Chinese stocks have nearly kept pace with that stellar return. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is up 19.9%.

There’s a similar story taking place in these two countries’ biggest and most important tech companies… where China’s best are nearly keeping pace with the U.S., too.

I’m talking about four of the largest technology-driven Chinese companies – three of which trade publicly in New York.

This includes Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY), JD.com (JD), and iQIYI (IQ). They have a combined market capitalization of nearly $1 trillion. And after a rough 2018, they’re soaring this year…

In 2018, the trade war slammed anything and everything that had to do with China. But so far this year, these stocks have performed exceedingly well.

The average year-to-date return for these Chinese tech stocks is 29%. And that nearly matches the returns from the U.S.’ most famous tech giants…

That group includes Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOGL). They’re collectively known as the “FAANG” stocks.

Combined, they nearly have a $3.5 trillion market cap. That’s about the size of the entire Shenzhen Stock Exchange – the smaller of China’s two stock markets.

But while the FAANG stocks wiped the floor with those top Chinese companies last year, 2019 is turning out to be a different story. Look at how the U.S.’s tech leaders have done…

On average, these U.S. tech stocks are up 32.3%. That’s impressive. And it just barely beats China’s hottest tech companies today.

I don’t expect this will last forever, though. Indeed, last week I showed DailyWealth readers how China’s stock market has severely underperformed its own booming economy. Chinese stocks need to soar an eye-popping 1,100% from present-day levels just to catch up with China’s economy.

That’s why I expect a huge catch-up rally over the coming years. And China’s big tech names will be an important part of it.

The point is… the U.S. is performing fantastically this year. But if you’re only thinking about the U.S., you’re missing out.

You wouldn’t have known this listening to the news. That’s anti-China bias in action. Don’t let it fool you into missing out on the big opportunities happening in China right now.

One of the Biggest Misconceptions in the Stock Market

By Ben Morris and Drew McConnell, editors, DailyWealth Trader

In the markets, you are your own worst enemy.

If you’ve been trading for long, this phrase probably rings true…

Money brings up powerful emotions. And if you let those emotions affect your decision-making, you’ll often make mistakes…

Maybe you take a bigger position than you know you should… Maybe you hold on to a position after you had planned to exit… Or maybe you exit a position before you had planned to.

Why does this happen? Sometimes it’s due to a lack of discipline or experience. But a lot of times, traders hold beliefs about the markets that just aren’t true.

One of the biggest misconceptions in the stock market is about volatility and the Volatility Index (also known as the “VIX”).

Today, we’ll show you what history shows us about volatility, and how you can use it to avoid making a common mistake…

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The VIX is often called the market’s “fear gauge.” It measures expected volatility in the benchmark S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days.

When the VIX is high, it tells us folks are expecting a big move… usually a drop. And when the VIX is low, it tells us folks are expecting a period of relative calm.

Because the VIX deals with expectations, many people think it’s a contrarian indicator… They think a low VIX means folks are too complacent. So when the VIX drops to low levels, they worry that a big jump in volatility – and lower stock prices – are just around the corner.

This gets folks into trouble. You see, history shows that the VIX is not a contrarian indicator…

On April 11, we ran a historical study on the VIX. We looked at what happened to stocks after the VIX held above 13 (a very low level) for three months, then dropped below 13.

The VIX had done exactly that less than a month earlier, on March 15. Here’s what we found…

The average and median returns across one-, two-, and three-month time frames were all positive. The worst returns weren’t too bad. And returns were positive across all time frames more than 67% of the time…

Folks get worried about stretches of low volatility. But low volatility – and the fear surrounding it – generally tells us we don’t have to be too worried.

Looking at history can help you avoid these kinds of misperceptions.

That’s why when we ran this study in April, we decided to spend the next couple of months mostly recommending bullish trades… and ignoring the common fears.

Now, we’re past the end of June. And we can see how our plan turned out this time around…

The chart below shows the S&P 500 for the three months since the VIX dropped below 13 on March 15. The stock market climbed, dropped 6.8%, then bounced. And the one-, two-, and three-month returns were 2.9%, 0.1%, and 2.3%, respectively…

This picture and the returns don’t match the historical averages perfectly. But “matching the averages” isn’t our goal when we look at this sort of historical study.

Our goal is to get an idea for what has happened in the past in similar circumstances. Then, we can use this information – rather than emotions – to choose appropriate trading strategies.

Our study showed us that the worst returns under similar conditions weren’t too bad… and that most of the time, returns were positive. That gave us more confidence to place bullish trades. And it was the right decision.

Eight of the 11 trades we made in that window of time went up, starting from the date of our study. The average return on all 11 trades (including open positions and a few that we closed as winners) was 1.5% in an average of 24 days, or 23% annualized.

The stock market was flat. But because we had a neutral-to-bullish outlook, we used the right trading strategies… And the results were excellent.

History serves as one of the best guides we have for navigating the markets…

Hopefully you’ve stayed long stocks and kept money in your highest-conviction ideas over the past few months. But even if you haven’t, you can learn from today’s essay…

First, keep watch over your emotions. They’ll often lead you to make bad trading decisions. So when you feel a strong emotion come up, check to see if it’s grounded in reality. History is a great guide.

And second, remember that when the VIX falls to a low level, it doesn’t spell disaster for stocks… If anything, it’s usually bullish.

Corrections Happen… Even in the Melt Up

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

It doesn’t take long for most investors to give up. They think they have a plan… But a bit of uncertainty hits them, and they’re gone.

That’s what happened last month. It was one of the worst Mays in stock market history, as I explained yesterday.

Uncertainty flooded into the market, and investors panicked. Stocks made a one-way move lower in May, falling almost 7%.

Panic set in. But that is the wrong emotion to have right now…

If you look at history, it’s easy to see that what happened in recent weeks, however painful, is completely normal.

Simply put, corrections happen… even during a stock market Melt Up.

Let me explain…

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May was a rough one. Things seemed to be going fine, with the finalized U.S.-China trade deal just days away. Then the deal unwound, and folks ran for the exits.

The market is up again in recent weeks. But last month’s quick downturn has investors around the world asking the same question: Is this the end?

They’re asking if the Melt Up has run out of steam… if the “Melt Down” is just around the corner.

My answer – as you’ll know if you’ve been reading my work – is a firm “no.” I believe the Melt Up is still in place. The recent fall was just a bump in the road.

That’s because history shows us corrections are completely normal, even during a Melt Up in stocks.

It might seem odd that I’d expect to see falls like last month’s during a furious stock market Melt Up. But Melt Ups aren’t all sunshine and roses…

They’re highly volatile. Stocks move up and down vigorously during this final stage. Just look at the chart below to see what I mean. It’s the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index during the dot-com bubble…

Without the arrows and numbers, you might have missed all the corrections that happened during this Melt Up. It would have looked like a one-way move higher for stocks. But that’s not really what happened.

Yes, the Nasdaq Composite did roughly triple in under two years. But it actually fell by roughly 10% on five separate occasions over the same period. Said another way…

There were five opportunities for folks to get scared out of the last big U.S. Melt Up.

It’s totally normal for stocks to fall, even during a Melt Up. I believe we just saw one of those corrections last month… The Melt Up is still in place in the U.S.

Of course, even if a correction is normal, it doesn’t mean that it isn’t the start of something worse. A 50% crash, after all, has to begin with a 10% decline.

Sure, stocks only fell 7% from all-time highs last month. That alone isn’t much. It’s not a decline you’d ever notice 10 years from now when you look back.

But folks aren’t worried about a 7% fall. They’re worried this could be just the beginning… and that the market could fall another 10%, or 20%, or 30%.

Fortunately, the market has already recovered well. Stocks are up 5% in just two weeks. And if my prediction of a continued Melt Up is correct, they still have much higher to go from here.

On average, declines like this one have actually led to double-digit gains in stocks over the next year.

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That’s why I urge you to remember this lesson. Corrections are normal. And they even happen when stocks are melting up.

So don’t let yourself get scared out of the market… You want to stay long now.

One More Reason the Melt Up Isn’t Over Yet

If you thought the Melt Up was over after last month, you need to read today’s message…

Stocks fell 6.6% last month. It was the worst May we’ve seen since 2010. And the only other time we’ve seen a worse May decline over the past 70 years was way back in 1962.

That’s right – last month’s decline was a once-in-a-generation type event. And it has a lot of folks wondering if the Melt Up is already over.

Normally, that would be the right assumption. Big declines tend to precede more big declines. But history says that’s not the case with major May losses.

In fact, buying after major May declines has a perfect track record over the next year. It’s led to double-digit gains, on average. And it’s one more reason why the Melt Up isn’t over yet.

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After a major correction in December, stocks bottomed just before the start of 2019. Then, they rocketed higher in the first four months of the year.

The Melt Up was back.

The S&P 500 was up 18% for the year through the end of April. It was a one-way ride higher, hitting new all-time highs along the way.

It seemed like another easy year in the markets… Then the bottom dropped out.

Again, stocks fell 6.6% in May. It was the third-worst May going all the way back to 1950. You can see the decline in the chart below…

Investors were getting cozy with the stock market. And they paid the price last month. The question now is what this major monthly decline actually means…

Is this the end of the Melt Up? Is it time to pack it in and move on?

You might expect that to be the case. But history tells a different story…

To see this, I looked at every May decline of 5% or more since 1950. These kinds of falls happened eight other times. And if you’d bought in those cases, you’d have made money a year later every single time.

That’s a perfect track record. Take a look…

Not only did buying after major May losses make money every time, it often made big money.

The market soared 20%-plus half the time. And on average, stocks jumped 18% over the next year. That’s dramatically better than the typical 8% a year the market has returned since 1950.

There are no guarantees here, of course. This could be the time this strategy doesn’t work. But we have a lot of history that says stocks are a smart bet over the next year.

This already beginning to play out. Stocks have stormed back so far in June. And we’re approaching new highs once again.

I see this as the Melt Up kicking back in. You don’t want to miss this next wave higher. And that’s why my advice remains the same… stay long.

What the Trade War Means for the Melt Up

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

“All right, Mr. Melt Up. Where’s your Melt Up now?”

I’ve been bullish on stocks for the last decade. It was March 20, 2009, when I told readers a major bull market was underway.

Since then, I’ve stayed bullish consistently. And every time we see a crack in the armor – every time the market falls, even just a little bit – I hear questions like the ones above.

Folks want to know what I expect to happen next. They know me as “Mr. Melt Up”… And they want answers when times get tough.

Tough times are here now. The escalating trade war has had a major impact on the U.S. market. Stocks fell in a big way last month.

Folks are getting worried. But I’m not. Today, I’ll explain why…

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Stocks hit new all-time highs at the end of April. Then they fell throughout most of May.

We’re now down around 7% from those all-time highs. And the speedy decline has folks scared. But let me repeat that last part again…

U.S. stocks are just 7% below all-time highs!

This hasn’t been some major crash. And to me, it’s no reason to panic. It’s completely normal market action.

That’s not how most folks feel, of course. No one expected the trade deal to fall apart. And sentiment in the markets reversed completely as a result.

Negative sentiment isn’t a bad thing, though. In fact, it’s exactly what I love to see… because prices tend to move higher when folks are scared, like they are today.

We can see how scared they are by looking the CBOE Volatility Index – known as the “VIX.” It jumped 50%-plus in less than two weeks during May. And it hit a multimonth high in the process.

Clearly, investors are nervous about what’s going to happen with the U.S.-China trade war. And that’s true of professional investors too, according to the most recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey…

This survey asks a couple hundred professional money managers what they’re doing with their money, what they’re worried about, and what they’re excited about. It’s a fantastic indicator of what the pros think. And the May edition gave more great insights into current investor fear.

The professional investors are scared. And that has caused them to hedge their portfolios at one of the highest levels we’ve seen since the Great Recession. Roughly a third of respondents say they’ve taken out protection against a sharp fall in the stock market over the next three months.

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In other words, the renewed trade war has spooked mom-and-pop investors and professionals alike. No one knows what to think… or what to expect next.

That negative sentiment is powerful. But again, stocks are only 7% below all-time highs. This means we have a major opportunity… When the fear blows over, prices should reverse in a big way.

As for what happens next, my view is simple…

Trump wants to stay in power. He wants to be re-elected. And that means he’ll be willing to go to the table and renegotiate.

This is why last week, I said Trump would do anything to end the trade war. I still believe that’s the case. He needs to get a deal done. And a deal will be good for the health of the U.S. market, too.

So, what about the Melt Up?

Easy – the Melt Up is doing just fine.

I see the recent fall in prices as a minor pause. This is a temporary setback… nothing more. The final push of this Melt Up will be here soon. Don’t miss it.

A Rare Buying Opportunity in This Hated Sector

By Brett Eversole

Editor’s note: Brett Eversole joined Stansberry Research in 2010. He worked alongside Steve Sjuggerud to develop True Wealth Systems. And he now works with Steve Sjuggerud on True Wealth, True Wealth Systems, True Wealth Opportunities: China, and True Wealth Opportunities: Commodities.

It’s crazy to think about. But the right political rhetoric can quickly sink a sector.

That’s what’s happened in recent weeks in the health care sector.

But remember, political rhetoric is just that… rhetoric. It doesn’t mean changes are certain. And when it crushes a major industry, it creates an opportunity.

Health care stocks were beaten down recently after political calls for “Medicare for All.” Folks are worried about the future of this major industry. And prices have suffered.

So we have to ask ourselves, is this the end of the health care industry as we know it? Or have investors overreacted… giving us a rare opportunity to buy?

History says the second scenario is far more likely. And we could make double-digits profits by acting now.

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The health care sector had been on the rise. Then the rhetoric kicked in.

Now, the overall market is hitting all-time highs, and health care stocks have lagged. They even fell 7% in just a few days last month.

But history says the recent fall is overdone… and profits are likely from here.

Simply put, the sector recently hit major oversold levels. It moved too far, too fast, based on the relative strength index (RSI).

The RSI is a simple tool. It tells us when investors have gotten ahead of themselves in one direction or another. And when that happens, a reversal is likely.

If a stock falls into oversold territory – below an RSI level of 30 – a rally is likely to ensue. And that’s what just happened in the health care sector.

The recent decline pushed health care stocks into oversold levels. You can see it in the chart below…

This was a major oversold reading. The health care sector didn’t just fall below an RSI of 30… It kissed a level of 25.

That’s a rare event. But going back to 2000, it has actually led to big upside. The table below shows the details…

The health care sector has been an OK performer since 2000… returning around 5% a year. But buying when the sector is beaten down and completely oversold tends to lead to much better gains.

Similar instances led to 5% gains in three months, 7% gains in six months, and an impressive 11% gain over the next year. That’s solid performance and roughly double the typical return for the sector over the same time frame.

Of course, we don’t know if the current political rhetoric will turn into something more. But it certainly won’t do so anytime soon.

That means the recent panic is likely overdone. And health care stocks are a smart bet right now.

One simple way to own the sector is the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). This fund tracks the overall sector. And importantly, it has already started rising off last month’s lows.

History says those gains should continue. And we could see 11% upside over the next year. It’s an opportunity worth considering now.

‘China-Phobia’ Is Real… Don’t Fall Into It

By Vic Lederman, analyst, True Wealth

It’s crazy how similar the questions always are…

Every American I talk to about China has the same fears. They all worry about the same things. And they all ask the same questions:

Is China going to regulate my investments out of existence? What about government control? Can these companies really be trusted?

The funny thing is that these questions show a deep misunderstanding of today’s China. They’re rooted in the China of the 1990s. But a lot has changed since then.

China is more capitalist than most realize. And it’s home to many of the world’s most innovative businesses. It’s just that Americans haven’t learned it yet…

Most Americans are stuck worrying about the old China. And those who have caught up have new worries… namely, that Chinese companies want to rule the world – and micromanage America along the way.

Either way, we’ve got “China-phobia.” And it’s time to get over it. Because the investment opportunity is too good to miss.

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China-phobia often reaches all the way to the top of industries…

Representatives of Epic Games faced this just last week. The company is a major player in the gaming industry. It’s the creator of the Gears of War franchise, as well as the wildly popular Fortnite.

Epic also has a Chinese partner. China’s mega app-maker Tencent (TCEHY) bought a 40% stake in the company in 2012. And even now, all these years later, China-phobia is still coming out of the woodwork.

Last week, Epic fielded some pointed questions about Tencent at the Game Developers Conference (“GDC”) – a major industry event. During a public Q&A session, an attendee asked…

[I’m] wondering if it was Tencent’s idea to abandon Unreal Tournament’s community?

The question was about the game Unreal Tournament, which Epic Games decided to stop developing in December. The user didn’t like the direction Epic chose to go. And they assumed the problem was Epic’s Chinese investor… Tencent.

Steve Allison, head of Epic Games Store, took the question head on…

Tencent has no, zero, input on our business. They do not talk to us about what we’re doing. They don’t suggest what we should be doing. They don’t make any decisions for us. They are not in our building.

Everything we do is with our team, and the final point of conversation when it goes up to the top is Tim [Sweeney, CEO]. And Tim does not take orders from Tencent. Believe me.

Tencent does have the power to nominate board members at Epic. And its 2012 investment led to the departures of many top company veterans. Things changed for Epic, and that was enough to spark China-phobia for many who follow the company.

That fear is completely misguided, though. Since Tencent’s investment, Epic has not suffered at all…

Fortnite, Epic’s absolute smash hit, came out long after Tencent made its investment. And it helped the company to earn a $3 billion profit last year.

Tencent is the world’s largest gaming company. It has interests in several major game studios. And those investments are succeeding as well… For example, Tencent owns Riot Games, the company responsible for League of Legends – another global hit.

In the end, Chinese companies and American companies share the same goal: profit. The goal is not to micromanage their investments to death.

And if you think it is… take a closer look. You might be falling prey to China-phobia.

This kind of thinking could cause you to miss out on major investment opportunities. Folks often have a hard time getting on board with our China research… But those who have followed our recommendations had the chance to earn huge profits.

The long-term opportunity in China is still fantastic. I’ve visited the country twice in two years, and I’m as bullish now as ever.

So please, if you have a case of China-phobia, work hard to get past it. You don’t want to miss out on investing in China in the coming years.

The ‘4-2-1 Problem’ and What It Means for Investors

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud – True Wealth

Ever heard of the “4-2-1 Problem”?

It is THE biggest problem facing the world’s second-largest economy.

Fixing it will require trillions (yes, trillions) of dollars.

Here’s the deal: China is about to grow old before it grows rich…

Thanks to China’s “one-child policy,” which lasted from 1979 to 2015, each young Chinese worker today faces supporting four grandparents and twoparents as they get older.

That is the 4-2-1 Problem. And today, I’ll share why solving it will shift up to a trillion dollars into Chinese stocks in the coming years.

Here are the details…

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As China has changed from a poor country to the world’s second-largest economy, it hasn’t set aside enough money for its retirees – yet.

And even though the Chinese save money at a much higher rate than Americans, surveys show most Chinese adults still worry they won’t have enough to retire.

They’re right to be worried. The threat for China is dire…

According to the World Bank, pension fund assets in the U.S. are roughly 135% of GDP. In China, the number is just 1.5% of GDP. (The World Bank defines a “pension” as “any plan, fund, or scheme that provides retirement income.”)

China doesn’t have enough money set aside today to support future retirees. And the young people can’t pick up the slack on their own…

In China, young people are supposed to look after their parents and grandparents. It’s expected. (Actually, it’s more than expected – for example, Shanghai recently passed a law requiring adult children to visit their parents in nursing homes.)

But the country doesn’t have enough young people working to pay for the old people, thanks in part to its former “one-child policy,” which lasted decades.

That’s why each young Chinese worker will face supporting four grandparents and two parents in the coming years. It’s the source of the 4-2-1 Problem.

The total numbers are staggering… By the year 2050, 330 million Chinese people will be over age 65. That’s almost a quarter of the population.

So trillions of dollars need to be saved, starting now, to head off this problem.

Not only does China need to increase the money going into pension assets, it also needs to increase the return on those assets. It’s the only way China can resolve its pension crisis quickly enough. And it needs to happen – now.

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So where can you go for a higher return on your investments over the long run? The stock market…

That’s exactly what China is planning to do. It has authorized one of its two main pension funds to invest up to 40% of its assets in stocks. But this fund has only invested about half that amount so far. It’s a similar story with the other pension fund.

And that means huge growth potential as China races to increase its pension assets…

Research firm KPMG predicts China’s two main pension funds will have more than $3 trillion in assets by 2025. If they invest just one-third of that money in the stock market, that’s $1 trillion headed into stocks by 2025.

This is going to happen. It has to, for China to solve the 4-2-1 Problem. As much as $1 trillion from Chinese pension funds should head into stocks by 2025.

Of course, that kind of massive money shift will be a huge tailwind for the Chinese market. It’ll create a steady stream of buyers, consistently helping to push prices higher.

This is one more major reason I’m bullish on China over the next few years. We have another trillion dollars soon headed into Chinese stocks… The smart bet is to get your money there first.

Why U.S. Stocks Could Rally Double Digits From Here

By Brett Eversole

Making this mistake could cost you double-digit gains in 2019…

I’m talking about staying on the sidelines of today’s rally. If that’s you, listen up… You haven’t missed it.

Sure, it’s been a record-setting year in the markets so far.

We experienced the best January for equities in 30 years. February led to more of the same, with stocks continuing higher. And recently, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index moved higher for 10 weeks in a row.

But that doesn’t mean the rally is over. If you stay on the sidelines today, you could be leaving double-digit gains on the table, based on this rare event…

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Recently, the extended rally hit another incredible mark we haven’t seen in nine years. It has only happened 11 other times since 1928.

The S&P 500 closed above its 10-day moving average for 40 trading days in a row. That’s a rare but powerful event…

You see, following the trend is at the core of our investment criteria. Without an uptrend, we’re not interested.

One way to define an uptrend is by tracking stocks against a moving average. This tool tracks the average closing prices over a given period to “smooth out” volatility. If the stock price is above its moving average, that signals an uptrend. And if the stock price is below its moving average, the trend is down.

You make the most money when prices are above the long-term moving average (usually the 200-day moving average). But looking at short-term moving averages is useful, too.

That’s where we find today’s rare event. The S&P 500 Index recently closed above its 10-day moving average for 40 consecutive trading days. Take a look…

Stocks stayed above this short-term moving average for most of January and all of February.

Since 1928, buying the S&P 500 after similar occasions would have led to winning trades one year later 64% of the time. And importantly, history shows a 10%-plus rally is possible from here.

Here’s what happened one year after each of the 11 events we’ve seen throughout history…

Only four of these instances led to losses a year later. And the biggest was a loss of just 7%.

That means the risk of a major decline is small, and the possible upside is large. You see, the winning trades outweighed the losers. Seven of the 11 extremes led to double-digit rallies over the next year. And the biggest return was 22%.

So, it’s true that U.S. stocks have had a stellar start to 2019. We saw the best January for stocks in more than 30 years.

But that doesn’t mean the fun is over. This occurrence is one more reason the gains in stocks should continue this year – and this decadelong bull market isn’t finished yet.

Don’t let fear keep you on the sidelines today. You want to own U.S. stocks right now. And history says double-digit gains are possible from here, thanks to this rare event.

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Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: The Best and Brightest Just Gave Up on Commodities… And I’m More Bullish Than Ever

“Merrill Lynch got OUT of the commodities business in 1998 because they weren’t making any money,” investing legend Jim Rogers told me over dinner in New Orleans many years ago…

Then, with a twinkle in his eye, he winked and said, “That’s the same year I launched my commodity index fund.”

The pencil pushers at investment bank Merrill Lynch had done the math – they knew that the main commodity index had lost half its value between 1980 and 1998 – and they threw in the towel.

What happened next?

The Rogers International Commodity Index soared from a starting value of 1,000 in 1998 to a peak near 6,000 a decade later.

Jim Rogers might be the world’s most successful investor… In the decade of the 1970s, he delivered a 4,000%-plus return to investors in his hedge fund. Then he retired. (Legend!)

So when Jim told me that story, I took note. And today, something similar is going on.

The best and brightest are getting out of commodities once again. And that means we could be near the start of a major move higher.

Let me explain…

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The venerable investment bank Goldman Sachs is giving up on commodities.

Commodity prices have lost two-thirds of their value since their 2008 peak. So the pencil pushers at Goldman have decided there’s no money to be made in the commodities business. They’re throwing in the towel.

The Wall Street Journal broke the story last month. And the explanation from Goldman on closing its commodity businesses was beautifully simple…

The business uses too much capital for too little profit.

I love it.

It’s identical to the lesson I learned from Jim nearly two decades ago.

It’s a major shift from one of the world’s most powerful investment banks. And it has made me more bullish than ever on commodities…

That’s because this landmark decision tells us exactly what the market sentiment is toward commodities today. It’s terrible. It would have to be, for Goldman to close down its commodity business. And that tells me that our opportunity is huge.

Goldman has given up on commodities. And it feels like nearly every other investor has, too.

The perception is that commodities are dead… that there’s no way to make money in the businesses… that the next boom might not ever come, so it would be better to move on.

As I’m sure you realize, this is great news. It means we’re on the edge of a turning point…

This is darn near the best signal we can get that a commodity boom is about to begin.

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No one is talking about this… because it’s not something you can pin down with a special indicator. It’s not derived from a formula. And it’s not based on secret relationships in the stock market.

Instead, this move by Goldman tells us how investors really feel. And this time, it reveals an entire industry is about to shift.

That’s because this is a “real money” indicator. It’s a business decision made by the pencil pushers at Goldman Sachs who are watching Goldman’s bottom line… and reining in the institutional investors. These kind of business decisions aren’t made lightly – they really mean something.

Sure, you can see negative sentiment when individual investors flee the market. But that’s easy to see. They’re the small fish. And just a little volatility can shake out Mom and Pop investors.

It’s not nearly that simple with institutional investors… or large investment banks like Goldman Sachs. Those folks live for big market swings. It’s where they make the most money.

That also means that when these folks begin to turn their backs on an asset, the climate is about as bad as it can get. The pencil pushers have won out over the institutional investors.

When that happens, that means the market is truly “hated.” And it’s exactly what we’re seeing today in the commodities market.

Make no mistake… This is setting up a huge opportunity to make money.

When Merrill Lynch closed down its commodity business in the late ’90s after years of underperformance, the company almost perfectly pegged the bottom in commodities.

The decade that followed proved to be one of the best ever for commodity prices. Again, the Rogers International Commodity Index soared from a starting value of 1,000 in 1998 to a peak near 6,000 in 2008 – a fantastic 500% return. And anyone who invested when Merrill pulled out made incredible profits.

Now, Goldman Sachs is doing the same thing. And that makes a long-term commodity bull market, starting now, a real possibility.

It’s the kind of setup contrarian investors dream about. And it’s here now. I encourage you to take advantage of it.