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The Melt Up Is in Full Force And It Can Continue

Fund managers are overweight stocks in a big way. History shows that these managers tend to be bullish at the right times. It’s another sign that U.S. stocks – and the Melt Up – can rally from here.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

Fund managers are the most overweight equities they’ve been in years…

In fact, today’s bullishness is the highest it has been in 10 years. This isn’t the kind of bullishness that should scare you out of the market, though.

While there’s plenty of speculation going on, these managers seem to be bullish at the right time.

It’s proof that the Melt Up is in full force… and that it can continue. That’s because the recent high optimism should mean more upside ahead in U.S. stocks, based on history.

Let me explain…

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The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey came out last week. The survey asks more than 200 fund managers questions about the market. And since Bank of America has tracked this data over the past 20 years, it can lead to useful insights.

One of the big takeaways from this latest survey is how bullish the group is on U.S. stocks. A net total of 62% of these managers said they are overweight stocks.

That’s the second-highest reading on record. It’s only lower than the overweight number the survey recorded in 2011.

That’s the Melt Up in action, my friend. Rising stock prices mean everyone is making money. And that makes them want to own stocks in a big way.

It’s a virtuous cycle. But it doesn’t have to mean the fun is over yet. In fact, these fund managers have a history of being bullish at the right times…

The percentage of fund managers overweight equities has been near today’s level a handful of times. We saw similar readings in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011, and more. We also saw this kind of behavior from 2013 to 2015.

U.S. stocks did incredibly well in the mid-2000s. The S&P 500 was up nearly 90% from its 2003 low to the end of 2006. Being bullish in those years led to great gains for investors.

The same was true after fund managers were overweight stocks in 2011. From the end of 2011 to the end of 2012, stocks were up 16%.

The last example we can look at was when fund managers were similarly overweight stocks in the thick of the latest bull market. That time, U.S. stocks went up 25% from their February 2014 lows to their peak in 2015… And that bull market wouldn’t see a 20% drawdown until 2020.

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In short, fund managers are overweight stocks in a big way. The Bank of America survey shows the highest overweight rating since 2011. But this bullishness isn’t a sign that we should get out.

History shows that these managers tend to be bullish at the right times. It’s another sign that U.S. stocks – and the Melt Up – can rally from here.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: What This Massive Sentiment Shift Means for Investors

It shows that we’re nearing a major turning point for the markets…I have never seen such a dramatic change from mass pessimism to mass optimism as we have seen this year.

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud – True Wealth

Deadly virus? What deadly virus?

It seems that extreme optimism is taking hold out there…

I flew home to Florida a few weeks ago, and the plane was packed. Every single seat was taken, including the middle seats. The waiting area in the airport was like old times – shoulder to shoulder.

I went out to dinner the night before in Baltimore with my business partner Dr. David Eifrig, my right-hand man of 10 years Brett Eversole, and a few others. We ate outside… But like the plane and the airport, the restaurant was packed – every seat was taken.

We walked from the Fells Point area, where the bars were packed… to Harbor East, where the restaurants were packed… and we thought: Baltimore is back!

It’s not just Baltimore, either. Good luck getting a reservation at any restaurant these days, much less a seat. And you better make your travel reservations soon… The hotels at home in Florida are booking up FAST.

This is a major change. And as I’ll explain, it shows that we’re nearing a major turning point for the markets…

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Two months ago, we had the opposite situation…

The airport was empty. Restaurants were struggling. And hotels were ghost towns.

I have never seen such a dramatic change from mass pessimism to mass optimism as we have seen this year.

Folks have good reason to be optimistic…

My doctor – who is not a man of hype – says, “Every American adult who wants a vaccine should be able to get one by the end of April.” He says that vaccine supplies are quickly moving from scarcity to abundance.

So what does this have to do with investing?

A lot. Everything. But maybe not in the way you think…

You see, markets don’t actually move higher simply because times are good. And they don’t move lower when times are bad.

Let’s say that Apple reported that earnings are up 20%. Sure, that’s good. But that information isn’t what will move the market. What will move the market is where that number stands relative to expectations…

If investors were expecting earnings growth of 15%, then Apple’s stock will soar. If investors were expecting earnings growth of 25%, then Apple’s stock will crash.

So then… if markets move on expectations, when is the optimal time to buy? When is the optimal time to invest?

The ideal time to buy is when investor expectations are low… when it’s easy for a company or a market to exceed the bar.

Today, people are incredibly optimistic, which is nice – as human beings, we want things to get better. But people might even be irrationally optimistic at this moment.

Two months ago, they were pessimistic. They didn’t want to take the risk. Today, they are willing to take a risk. They’re betting that they’ll be OK.

I’m simplifying it, of course. But I hope what I’m saying makes sense.

To give ourselves a shot at the biggest gains, we want to buy when everyone is overly pessimistic about an asset or market. Then, we want to ride that uptrend as far as possible.

When investors get overly optimistic – like they are today – it’s a major warning sign. But importantly, it’s not the sell signal…

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The Melt Up is still in place for now. And we want to ride it as high as possible.

The sell signal arrives when the downtrend arrives… That’s when we want to get out. And despite a huge shift in sentiment, we’re not there yet.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: This Bull Market Will Come To an End And The Melt Down Will Begin Sometime This Year

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: I’m predicting this bull market will come to an end… and the Melt Down will begin… sometime this year. The smarter plan is to sit back and wait. If we don’t do that, we could miss out on fantastic gains.Just like I did in 2000, in the last Melt Up, I will follow my trailing stops… And GET OUT WHEN THEY ARE HIT.

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

I’m predicting this bull market will come to an end… and the Melt Down will begin… sometime this year.

Whether you agree or not, you might be asking a question…

“Why even participate? Why not just sell now?”

The answer is pretty simple. While I believe I know how things will play out, I don’t think I’m smarter than the market.

So instead of forcing my will, the smarter plan is to sit back and wait. If we don’t do that, we could miss out on fantastic gains.

Let me explain…

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To better understand my point, you need to think about the current psychology that’s driving investor behavior.

Market commentator Josh Brown explained it best recently in his blog The Reformed Broker. Talking about cryptocurrencies and crazy investing ideas, he said, “That sounds stupid… I’m buying some just in case.”

He continued…

With 6% economic growth, plus zero percent interest rates, plus millions of people sitting around on their phones all day speculating in stupid sh*t on the internet, your regrets will multiply daily as said stupid sh*t continues to grow…

Simply put, you never know just how high a boom can go on. As the saying goes, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” That goes for booms, too.

And we want to be on board for as much of it as possible… no matter how stupid it gets.

Trust me, it’ll get stupid. I lived through the boom that peaked in March 2000. It was a crazy time… and the “stupid” gains were piling up.

In January 2000, I issued the most serious warning of my career to my 40,000 subscribers…

We are at the peak of most likely the greatest financial mania that will ever be seen in our lifetimes, and possibly the greatest ever witnessed…

As long as the mania continues, we’ll continue to hold and even buy the best participating companies… How can we buy stocks when we know it’s reached the mania stage? It’s easy, we have a disciplined system of investing that’s been proven to make money.

In short, we had an exit strategy – just like the one we’re preparing now, 21 years later.

Here’s how it went down back then… The market peaked in March 2000. Our exit strategy signaled for us to get out of most of our positions in April 2000. At the time, selling our positions because they hit their trailing stops felt like I was failing my readers. Times seemed so good. It felt so wrong to sell!

But in the end, it was by far the right thing to do. I had no idea that the market would keep going down, and down, and down… eventually bottoming – years later – in 2003.

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This Melt Down will be brutal too. It could last for years… which means investors are potentially facing years of poor returns. This could be the last chance many of us get to make irrational gains in the U.S. market.

So just like I did in 2000, in the last Melt Up, I will follow my trailing stops… And GET OUT WHEN THEY ARE HIT.

That is our exit strategy. It is the only thing that will protect the gains you have made… and keep you from losing more money when the Melt Down arrives.

If you follow this plan, there’s no reason to simply sell today. Instead, your plan should be to ride the Melt Up as far as you can… and use your exit strategy (trailing stops) to pocket your gains.

Things could get stupider from here. So don’t sell yet. But have a plan for when the time comes.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: How You Handle the Melt Down Could Be The Most Important Event Of Your Financial Life

For the majority of investors today, how you handle the Melt Down could be the most important event of your financial life…Today, I’ll share why too many investors will make that mistake… and how you can avoid it.

By Steve Sjuggerud, editor, True Wealth

For the majority of investors today, how you handle the Melt Down could be the most important event of your financial life…

In recent days, I shared why a Melt Down is inevitable. And more specifically, why I believe it’ll begin sometime this year.

You might not agree with me. But you should at least consider the possibility. If not, you could end up handling it all wrong.

Today, I’ll share why too many investors will make that mistake… and how you can avoid it.

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If you are 55 years old and you handle the Melt Down the wrong way, you might lose half of the money you have invested.

That might cause you to work an additional 10 years before retirement… all because of a few bad decisions made in 2021.

So… don’t be that guy.

Look, here are the basics: An investment “bubble” has kicked in recently. And it will certainly end. Unfortunately, most folks who just started “playing” in the markets this year will lose money. A good portion of them will lose a lot of money.

Here’s how it will go…

New investors will make a good amount of money on the way up. They will gain confidence.

With that confidence, they will add even more money to their accounts, as they will believe they know how to succeed.

Then the market will turn against them… and they will start to lose money.

At first, they will see it as a golden opportunity to invest even more money, because assets are “on sale.”

Ultimately, they will lose even more money on the way down than they made on the way up.

It will take tremendous personal and emotional strength to avoid that path… to not end up like everyone else.

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Your instincts will tell you to buy more. But your instincts will be wrong. In fact, you will need to do the opposite – you will need to sell, just when you feel like you want to buy.

Importantly, you will need a plan – set in advance – for how you will get out with most of your gains still intact. If you don’t have that plan in advance, then you will sink with the ship. And even then, having the plan doesn’t guarantee that you will follow it.

If you want to keep most of your money, you will need to follow the plan.

That’s because – unlike the fall we saw in March last year – a true Melt Down doesn’t end quickly…

“As the market goes down, will people rotate out of speculative stocks into less speculative ones?” one of my colleagues asked me recently.

“No, they won’t,” I replied. These market newcomers will ultimately give up after big losses. They will throw in the towel. They will pull what little money they have left out of the markets – and vow to never return.

At least, that’s the way it went in the 1999 to 2000 Nasdaq Melt Up… which ended in an 80% fall in the Nasdaq between the March 2000 peak and the bottom in 2003.

The exodus you see during a Melt Down doesn’t happen overnight. People are stubborn. It takes a while. Therefore, the Melt Down could take a while. And it could be severe. This slow exodus gives you time to exit your positions before most everyone else.

But you still have to act – and sell – when the time comes.

Your goal from here should be to participate in all of the upside potential that is left in the Melt Up… and then get out with most of your gains when the Melt Down arrives.

It’s easier said than done. But you now know why the Melt Down will inflict maximum damage on anyone who isn’t ready for it.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: The Melt Down Is Looming

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: I’ve made a name for myself calling the Melt Up in recent years. I’ve been bullish and right. But I can’t ignore what I see brewing in the markets right now. Today, I’ll share why I believe this major prediction is a near certainty.

By Steve Sjuggerud, editor, True Wealth

The Melt Up will end sometime this year.

That’s the big prediction I shared last week. It’s a major shift in opinion for me.

I’ve made a name for myself calling the Melt Up in recent years. I’ve been bullish and right. But I can’t ignore what I see brewing in the markets right now.

Today, I’ll share why I believe this major prediction is a near certainty.

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What’s happening today is simple… It’s the Greater Fool Theory.

Folks are hoping that by buying today, there will be a greater fool than them to pay a higher price tomorrow. But think about this for a second…

Right now, we’ve got multiple rock stars (and Elon Musk!) pushing Dogecoin – which the founder admitted was formed as a joke and should never be worth much.

Once Musk, Snoop Dogg, Gene Simmons, and all the kids in the local high school have put their money to work… where can the next greater fool possibly come from to drive prices higher?

“The single most dependable feature of the late stages of the great bubbles of history has been really crazy investor behavior, especially on the part of individuals,” legendary investor Jeremy Grantham wrote earlier this year. “For the first 10 years of this bull market, which is the longest in history, we lacked such wild speculation. But now we have it. In record amounts.”

That gets to the heart of it…

To me, what we’re seeing now is “really crazy investor behavior, especially on the part of individuals.”

The thing is, to make the most money, you want to buy when everyone is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy (to quote billionaire investor Warren Buffett). And right now, individual investors – many of whom are buying for the first time – are darn excited…

An astounding 28% of all Americans bought GameStop or other viral stocks in January, according to a Yahoo Finance-Harris poll. The median investment, according to the poll, was just $150. The largest group of buyers was men aged 18 to 44. And 43% of these folks said they had just signed up for a brokerage account in the last month.

So in new individual investors, we have seen a dramatic shift in investor attitudes and behaviors. In short, basically since GameStop, we moved from a stock market boom to an investing bubble.

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We may not know the exact date… But the Melt Down is coming. And if I haven’t convinced you yet, consider this…

The main index of tech stocks – the Nasdaq – hit another scary record last month. From its bottom, it was up 105% in 47 weeks. To give you some frame of reference, that was the best 47-week performance in the 50-year history of the index.

The Nasdaq has only been up over 100% after 47 weeks twice in history… The last two 100% moves ended in March 2000 and in July 1983. The stock market performed terribly immediately after those huge moves higher. Take a look…

The last two times in history that we saw a market up over 100% in the same short period of time, the Melt Down was knocking at our door. It’s as simple as that.

There are several points here. But the takeaway is an easy one…

Market sentiment and performance are both hitting bubble levels. And that tells me the top is near.

I expect the Melt Down to begin sometime this year. And that means the time to prepare is now.