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Three Steps Could Help Your Portfolio Survive the Next Crash

By Dr. David Eifrig, editor, Retirement Millionaire


When my business partners and I decided to create our Stansberry Portfolio Solutions service a few years back, we had one goal in mind: Give subscribers a one-stop shop where they can find a portfolio built around our best ideas.

So Steve and I got together with our company’s founder Porter Stansberry… And we decided to create three portfolios that covered anything subscribers could possibly need and want, based on what we would want if our roles were reversed.

It was an audacious plan…

We created The Capital Portfolio for folks – likely younger ones – who were looking for capital gains over a longer period of time.

The Income Portfolio was created for people who need to preserve capital and use it to generate high current and future income.

We topped these off with The Total Portfolio, which was designed to look across all of Stansberry Research’s newsletters and trading services… and blend our best ideas into a single portfolio that balances growth, value, and income ideas, along with market hedges that protect your principal during a downturn.

As of last year, we added a fourth portfolio to the mix… The Defensive Portfolio. It’s the “stay wealthy” counterpart to Capital’s “get wealthy” objective.

Stansberry Research had never done something like this before. As a group, we were nervous. As the “guru” of my own investment letter, it’s easy to decide what’s best.

But bringing great minds together to agree and allocate… that was going to be interesting.

What if we couldn’t do it? After all, as I’ll show you today, a portfolio isn’t just a collection of good businesses…


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A good portfolio requires matching your position size with your convictions. It requires deciding on specific goals – so far as risk and return goes – and sorting through thousands of potential investments to reach them.

For us, it was a new set of challenges.

For example, the stock market’s bull run is getting older and older. Many market metrics show valuations that textbooks and Nobel Prize-winning economists would have told you were unattainable.

As a result, Total’s cash position has at times exceeded 20% of the portfolio, and short positions have at times made up to 12%. Even Income has been holding 3%-7% in cash at times, looking for safe opportunities to generate income over the long term.

These decisions have consequences for our results…

Growing your wealth safely requires more layers than just picking different stocks. We had to beef up our firm’s position-tracking and analytics, add staff members to monitor every tick in the markets, and regularly convene our investment committee for long discussions about the allocations of winners and losers. For us, a percentage here and a percentage there makes a difference.

And so far… I think we’ve nailed it.

In 2019, the benchmark S&P 500 Index went up 31% annualized. Meanwhile, our portfolios have delivered annualized returns of 42% (Capital), 32.6% (Total), 27.3% (Income), and 20.3% (Defensive).

In other words, Total and Capital both surpassed the broader market. And Income and Defensive both did exceedingly well, despite holding substantial positions in cash and gold, fixed-income investments (for Income), and safe short-term government bonds (for Defensive).

Our audacious plan has turned out to be a good one. But don’t judge us by these returns alone. The true test will be what comes next… Our best performance is still ahead of us.

Anyone could have earned roughly 30% – or close to it – in an S&P 500 Index fund last year (including dividends). Earn that year after year, and you’re on your way to doubling your money every three years or so.

But to be frank… you won’t earn that most years. Most years won’t be anything like 2019. And most stretches of nearly a decade won’t come close to delivering the returns we’ve enjoyed since the market bottomed in March 2009.


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Those index returns are great when you can get them. But a reckoning is coming. It always does.

We don’t know when… but the stock market has 10%, 20%, and 30% drops in its future. That’s just what markets do.

In my view, you can’t – and shouldn’t try to – trade around reasonable declines. Taxes are the most obvious reason. After you pay capital-gains taxes, you’d have to trade a 20% correction exactly right to come out ahead. And no one gets it exactly right.

Instead, when the market correction does come, it will unveil the true strengths of the portfolios we’ve built.

As I said, The Total Portfolio has beaten the stock market. But it has done so while also holding a large amount of capital in short positions, cash, and even gold stocks. Those hedges will lose when the market keeps hitting new highs, but they’ll keep you safe when it declines.

And while this focus on risk management and capital preservation has sometimes muted our results… it will pay off in the long run.

I hope you’ve been putting this model to work in your own portfolio. Of course, this does mean it’s important to select high-quality businesses that deliver large gains and offset what you’ve set aside in conservative investments.

That’s what we’ve done in our Portfolio Solutions. We’ve been able to beat the market without feeling like we overextended ourselves into the hottest names. Our big gainers allow us to hold the safe positions and still ride the market higher.

But no matter what your personal investing approach is, the important thing is to sleep well at night knowing your portfolio can withstand a surprise drawdown.

So make sure you follow these three steps…

Pay attention to your position sizes and your aversion to risk (think losses and roller-coaster stock prices). Don’t be tempted to try timing the tops and bottoms… It’s statistically impossible.

Be sure you also think about cash, because at least 10% of the time over a three-year period, cash outperforms the other asset classes. Having some capital for bargain hunting when you need it most will also keep you from having to sell assets at precisely the wrong time (when the selling is overdone).

Finally, the old adage about letting profits run and cutting losses short has never been so critical in our investing lifetime.

Why This Bull Is Sitting on the Sidelines

By Jason Bodner, editor, Palm Beach Trader

The market is off to a rip-roaring start for the year…

The Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 all hit record intraday highs on Wednesday. And it seems like they reach new highs every day. Stocks look unstoppable right now.

But this shouldn’t be surprising. In December 2019, I told you stocks were still headed higher – and I was right.

Now, you’d think a bull like me would be backing up the truck for more. Yet right now, I believe we should hit the pause button.

Today, I’ll tell you why – and more importantly, when will be the right time to jump back into the market…


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Our “Unbeatable” Stock-Picking System

Longtime Daily readers know I used my experience of nearly two decades at prestigious Wall Street firms – trading more than $1 billion worth of stock for major clients – to create an “unbeatable” stock-picking system.

If you’re not familiar with it, here’s how it works…

It scans nearly 5,500 stocks every day, using algorithms to rank each one for strength. It also looks for the movements of big-money investors. And when it sees them piling into or getting out of a stock, it raises a yellow flag.

I put these yellow flags through another filter. If the flag turns red, it means the big money is selling. If it turns green, it means the big money is buying…

It’s that simple: When I see green, the big money is buying.

This system has found triple-digit winners like The Trade Desk (TTD) and Paycom Software (PAYC) for my Palm Beach Trader subscribers (up about 218% and 170%, respectively). In fact, we’re currently sitting on an 87% win rate in our portfolio – with our winners averaging a nearly 50% gain.

But here’s the thing: My unbeatable system doesn’t just look at individual stocks. It can track big-money buying and selling in the broad market, too.

And right now, it’s showing that the buying is off the charts…


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He’s also been called “a true American genius” … and “Wall Street’s most influential technology trader.”

Investors could have made millions on the trends he’s talked about, years ahead of the curve.

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What the Big Money Is Doing

I’ve been saying since November that we’d continue to see the big money flooding in and lifting stocks higher. And just a few weeks ago, we finally saw a big shockwave of buying in stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In fact, all 11 market sectors are seeing massive buying. They all saw an average of at least 50% of available stocks being bought up in a huge way. Now, this is very rare. It only happens one or two times per year.

Normally, sectors will only see this volume of buying when other sectors are being flushed out. We saw this happen last year when the big money was forced to sell out of software… and bought into semiconductors.

And as you can see below, surged buying often precedes selling. This chart shows my system’s ratio of big-money buying and selling…

When the ratio is at 80% (see the red line above) or more, it means buyers are in control and markets are overbought. And when it dips to 25% (the green line) or lower, sellers have taken the reins, leading the markets into oversold territory.


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Now, all this buying might seem like a good thing (and in the long run, it is).

But each time the ratio has signaled overbought levels, it’s quickly fallen back within a few weeks. This means that the big money is selling again – causing the markets and prices to fall, too.

My system pinpointed similar conditions in February 2017, January 2018, and February 2019. And it took between one day and 10 weeks for the market to sell off afterwards.

With my system’s ratio hitting the 80% level on December 27, 2019 (circled in the chart above), we’re due for a pullback soon.

Now, I don’t have a crystal ball. So I can’t tell you exactly when the reset will come.

But now isn’t the time to buy stocks. The market is just too expensive. So let’s sit on the sidelines until the buying dries up.

History tells us it’ll take a few days or weeks before it dissipates. Once it does and the market pulls back, you’ll be able to buy high-quality stocks at a discount.

And if you’re sitting on some gains, consider booking wins as the market rises higher. This way, you’ll have cash ready for action when my system signals the time is right.

Again, I’m still bullish for 2020. But right now, let’s prepare a buy list for the inevitable, healthy correction.

Tax-Free Retirement Income

Zach Scheidt - Editor, The Daily Edge
Zach Scheidt – Editor, The Daily Edge

Let’s face it, no one likes to pay taxes.

Even at today’s relatively low tax rates, it still hurts to see how much Uncle Sam takes out of each paycheck — especially if you’re behind on your retirement goals.

That’s why a huge cornerstone to any good retirement plan should be minimizing the taxes you owe.

To help you create this plan, I’m going to share a special investment that lets you generate income for retirement completely tax-free.

Let’s get to it!


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Make Tax-Free Money — By Lending It to the Government

There’s one source of retirement income that the IRS hasn’t been able to tax, despite its best efforts.

In fact, it’s taken the issue before the Supreme Court on two occasions — and lost!

So it’s truly tax-free income.

I have to warn you, though — the source of this cash stems from something few people understand.

So before I tell you an easy way to earn money that the IRS can’t touch, let me tell you about the investments this strategy is built around — bonds.

A bond is nothing more than a way for companies and governments to borrow money from the public.

Much like a stock share, which represents part ownership of a company, each individual bond represents part ownership of a loan. And like stock shares, they’re put up for sale so investors can buy them.

In most cases, a bond is initially valued at $1,000 — known as par value. The entity that creates the bond decides how long it wants to borrow the money for — an exact date known as the bond’s maturity. It pledges to pay the bondholder $1,000 on that date, if not before.

The entity also decides how much interest it’s willing to pay on that loan. It’s a fixed percentage based on the $1,000 par value, known as the yield. It pays that interest every six months over the life of a loan, known as a coupon payment.

So if you buy a bond, the entity that issued it is legally obligated to pay you back. And until it does, it is required to send you coupon payments every six months.

This is non-negotiable. The only way to avoid the payments is to default on the loan — essentially going bankrupt.

But even if that happens, the entity must figure out some way to pay the money it owes. In the worst-case scenario, assets are typically sold and the proceeds are given to the company’s creditors. Bondholders are creditors… so they’re entitled to anything they can get.

As I said, bonds can be issued by companies or governments. But I don’t just mean the federal government. States, counties and cities can also borrow money from the public by issuing bonds.

They’re called municipal bonds… often called “munis” for short.


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Collect Tax-Free Income From Helping a City Grow

Municipal bonds are simply bonds issued by local governments to fund construction projects.

The government pays the bondholder back from collected taxes or even the proceeds from whatever the money helped build.

One of the defining features of a municipal bond is that you don’t have to pay federal taxes on the coupon payments you receive.

In fact, the IRS has a space for the money you get from munis on its 1099-INT (Interest Income) form, box 8: tax-exempt interest.

Gains from municipal bonds can also be immune from state income tax, too — it usually depends on your state’s laws.

Now, municipal bonds — like all bonds — can be expensive. Remember, they have a par value of $1,000… and most bond brokers require you to buy a minimum number of bonds.

But there is a much more inexpensive way to earn tax-free income from municipal bonds — bond funds.

Big financial institutions can afford to buy large numbers of municipal bonds from all over the country. They can then create stock shares that represent that pool of bonds. They’re known as bond funds.

You can buy shares in these bond funds on the stock market just like any other stock. You just need an account with a stock broker.

When the municipalities make their coupon payments or the bonds mature, the cash goes to the financial institution.


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The institution can use the money to buy more municipal bonds. It also takes out fees for itself. Then it can send whatever’s left over to the fund’s shareholders.

Like a dividend, the money is paid on a per-share basis. So the more shares of the bond fund you own, the more money you will receive.

And since the source of the money isn’t taxable, you generally don’t have to pay federal taxes on the money you receive. (You may have to pay state taxes on income from the fund, however. Check with your broker or a tax adviser to be sure.)

Because of this, a bond’s fund true yield is effectively higher than regular stock dividends.

Think about it..

If you buy a regular stock that pays a 5% yield, you’ll pay taxes on that income. If you get 5% from a municipal bond fund, you won’t pay taxes on it — so your investment dollars go farther.

So these bonds could be a great way to generate tax-free income to fund your retirement!

This Is Your “Magic Number” for Retirement

By Chaka Ferguson, managing editor, Palm Beach Daily

Nearly half of Americans are heading into retirement with little or no savings…

That’s according to a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) survey.

It found that nearly half of Americans nearing retirement had nothing saved in a 401(k) or an individual retirement account (IRA). Even more disturbing, 48% of people over 55 had no savings in an IRA.

I sincerely hope you’re not one of those people. IRAs and 401(k)s are great tax-deferred ways to build your wealth. And if you don’t have one of them, you’ll probably need to rely on the government to take care of you in your golden years.

And that’s not a safe position to be in…

But even people who are saving are far behind the curve. According to another study by the GAO, the median amount of savings for households of people aged 65 to 74 is only about $148,000.

That’s probably not enough to get you through your golden years…

If you were to put those savings in an inflation-protected annuity, you’d receive about $650 per month in retirement. Adding that to the average monthly Social Security payment of about $1,470, you’d have about $2,100 per month in income – around $25,000 annually.

Would that be enough for you to live off of when you’re in the later stage of your life? If not, you need to do some planning.

And that’s what I’ll show you how to do today…


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The “Magic Number”

The first thing you need to do when putting together your retirement is to pick a retirement age.

For simplicity’s sake, if you want a “conventional” retirement, you should aim for age 70. But of course, this age will differ for each individual. Some people want to retire before 70… and others, after.

Once you decide when you want to retire, you need to determine how much income you’ll need to live comfortably when you stop working.

At PBRG, we call this your “magic number.”

First, you need to think about your necessities when you’re not working… Will you have rent or mortgage payments? Property taxes? Healthcare expenses? Car payments? Think about them. Write down how much they’ll cost today.

Then, think about the things you’ll want to do… What are your hobbies and interests? Will you travel? How much will they cost? Write those down, too.

Now, add up all those numbers… That’s how much income you’re going to need every year from your savings and investments to live off of.

Once you find out this “magic number,” you can then determine how much you need in your account to retire.


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Now, this is only a general rule of thumb… But most conservative portfolios can earn 8% over their lifetimes. So divide your magic number by 0.08.

For example, if you think you’ll need $50,000 per year to live comfortably, divide $50,000 by 0.08. That means you’ll need a retirement account of $625,000 – if you want to retire today.

If retirement is further down the road, you’ll have to adjust for inflation. But that gets a little complicated…

Fortunately, the PBRG team has put together a free tool to help you calculate your magic number. You can download it here.

Remember, doing these calculations just once won’t cut it. You need to do them every year because the inputs will keep changing.

And we get it… Not everyone has saved enough for retirement. Or maybe you don’t want to retire at all. So what if you still need (or want) to work in your later years?

Here are three simple options you can consider…


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Three Other Steps You Can Take

If you plan on working in your golden years, here are three simple suggestions…

  • Work part time.

Just because you’ve passed the official “retirement age” of 62 it doesn’t mean you have to stop working. A part-time job can provide you a second stream of income.

And I’m not just talking about becoming a Walmart greeter (although that’s a perfectly fine option). You can also work for yourself – from home…

E-lancing is one idea. It simply means selling some skill you have to people looking for that skill on the internet. These skills can include anything: photography, graphic design, translation, dictation, research, analysis, or writing, just to name a few.

As an e-lancer, you’ll deliver work electronically – meaning you can work your own hours, anywhere you want. So if you have a skill, the market for you to sell it is huge.

  • Use your hobbies to create additional income.

Did you know it’s possible for even amateur photographers to earn $50 to $500 for a single photo taken on a weekend hike? You just need a camera and computer to start your own business.

A blog is another great way to turn your passions or expertise into a reliable income stream. When done right, you can easily earn $5,000 per month or more with zero risk.

And the internet has made it possible for ordinary people to sell thousands of copies of their books online. It takes some knowledge and skill to write and publish a book… But anybody can learn while writing part time in the mornings, evenings, and weekends.

  • Join the peer-to-peer (P2P) economy.

The P2P economy is another opportunity for extra income. P2P is where people buy or sell goods and services directly online with each other.

One example is Airbnb. It’s an online platform allowing people to rent their extra living space to other people short-term. You can start bringing in income almost right away.

I’ve looked at the available rentals near our Delray Beach offices, and the average price for renting out a room is about $70 per night. If you did that for 200 nights per year, you’d have an extra $14,000 in annual income.

And think about all the extra stuff in your attic, too… You could auction it off to the highest bidders through an online platform like eBay.

The point is: You can’t trust the government to fund your retirement. You’re on your own. So either make sure you have enough money set aside to fund your retirement… or consider earning some extra, part-time income.

This Gold Loophole Could Help You Save on Taxes

By Grant Wasylik, analyst, Palm Beach Daily

Most people don’t know this… But there’s a way to turn losses on your gold holdings into immediate tax savings – without losing possession of your precious metals.

It involves a loophole under Section 1091 of the IRS code. It’s known as the “wash-sale rule.”

A wash sale is when an investor sells a security at a loss to claim a tax write-off… only to repurchase the same (or nearly identical) security within 30 days of the sale.

Now, the IRS prohibits such sales. However, its rules don’t cover “precious metals.”

This means they’re not subject to a holding period for tax-swap sales.

So if you’re sitting on losses on gold bars, numismatic coins, or silver, you’ll want to take advantage of this loophole before the end of the year. And I’ll show you how.

But first…


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“Wash” Your Gold or Silver

I wanted to find out why conducting a wash sale now would be good for precious metals owners. So I spoke to some of the top precious metals dealers in the country.

Rich Checkan is president and chief operating officer of Asset Strategies International. It’s one of the most reputable precious metals dealers in the country.

Here’s what he told me:

Now is a particularly good time to consider this strategy. Gold is about midway between its 10-year high and low. And over the last decade, silver is nearly 10 times closer to its low.

Why is that important? It’s simple. The lower the price when you execute a tax swap, the bigger the tax advantage, and the smaller the cost to capture it.

And if you act quickly, you should be able to put this to work this tax year.


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Here’s an example of how it works…

Let’s say you bought an MS-64 $20 Saint-Gaudens gold coin for $2,200 per ounce in 2010. Today, those coins are worth about $1,581.

Under the wash-sale loophole, you could sell your coins at the current market price… and then immediately repurchase them for the same price.

In this hypothetical transaction, you’d realize a taxable loss of $691 per coin – which will lower your 2019 tax bill. But you’d still be able to keep your coins.

Now, there’s a transaction fee on the sale (1–4% on numismatics and 1–2% on bullion), and the shipping costs. So you’ll want to make sure these costs are less than what you’ll write off in taxes.

Plus, if you don’t use up all your losses this year, you can roll them forward into future tax years. And if you don’t have an offsetting gain, you can still take up to a $3,000 loss in the current year.


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How to Execute a Tax Swap

Remember, this information is for general tax purposes only. We strongly encourage you to consult your accountant or tax adviser before making a tax swap.

If you do, here are the steps you should take:

  • Talk to your tax adviser: Tell them what you’re contemplating. Could you use some losses to offset gains on a one-for-one basis? There’s a chance your CPA may not even know this avenue exists.
  • Contact a gold dealer: We recommend Asset Strategies International or David Hall Rare Coins. Both can help you decide if a precious metals tax swap makes sense. Remember to do your due diligence. (Note: PBRG doesn’t receive any compensation for recommending these dealers.)
  • Know your situation: Before you reach out, you’ll need to know the types of precious metals you own, the quantity, the price you paid, your tax bracket, etc.

And if you’re ready to make the swap after talking to your tax consultant and a dealer, here’s a preview of what comes next…

You’ll have to physically mail your coins to a dealer. Dealers can “fix” the price. This means they can immediately arrange a buy-and-sell order on the same day.

If coin values spike in transit, you can have the dealer mail them back to you. No harm, no foul.

This tax loophole allows you to benefit from falling precious metals’ prices (in the past or in the future). And you’ll still be able to keep the exact same metals you started with… just with a new cost basis.

Be sure to act before the end of the year if you want to use any losses for 2019.


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Trump Just Gave Us a Big-Money Buying Discount

By Jason Bodner, editor, Palm Beach Trader

It’s not often I see a profitable setup in the markets like the one I’m seeing today. Let me explain…

On Tuesday, President Trump appeared to pour cold water on any pending resolution to the U.S.-China trade war.

During a NATO press conference in London, the president said: “A China trade deal is dependent on one thing: Do I want to make it?”

Then, he added: “I have no deadline… In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election, if you want to know the truth. But I’m not going to say that, I just think that.”

Now, with Trump, you can’t tell whether he’s blowing smoke or stating official U.S. foreign policy. And for our purposes, it doesn’t really matter.

But his words do matter to the markets.

Soon after his comments, the S&P 500 dropped 1.3%… the Dow 1.5%… and the Nasdaq 1.48%. His words also hit one sector in particular – which dropped nearly 2%.

Here’s the thing… My stock-picking system recently picked up big-money buying in this same sector. And the last three times this happened, we saw average returns of 26% in about 12 months.

Today, I’ll tell you which sector it is – and why you should buy this dip…


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The “Agnostic” Stock Picker

I spent nearly two decades as a Wall Street trader at firms such as Cantor Fitzgerald. In fact, I was one of only a handful of people in the world who could trade $1 billion or more for big financial institutions.

Now, I couldn’t track the big money alone. So I coded computer programs to help. And when I left Wall Street, I decided to build my own stock-picking system. It cost me over $250,000 and years of my life… But it’s proven to work over and over again.

Here’s what it does…

It scans 5,500 stocks every day, using algorithms to rank each one for strength. It also looks for the signs of big-money investors. And when it sees them moving in or out of a stock, it raises a yellow flag.

Then, I put these yellow flags through another filter. If the flag turns red, it means the big money is selling. If it turns green, it means the big money is buying…

It’s that simple: When I see green, the big money is buying.

The beauty of my system is, it’s completely agnostic. It doesn’t panic. It ignores tweets, headlines, and noise. It doesn’t sell on fear or buy on fantasy.

It just follows the money…


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Why Christmas could be fantastic this year

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It could be a very, merry Christmas for you and your loved ones this year…

Here’s why…

On Wednesday, December 11th, this Market Wizard and retired billion-dollar hedge fund manager will show you the secret he used to generate over $270 million in profit over an 8-year period…

You can use the same secret to generate over $200,000 this year (or more), according to this individual.

Click Here To Learn More


Riding the Green Wave

Now, the chart below shows the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF). It holds 67 of the top financials companies.

The green bars show when big buying has started. When the big money comes to play, it means big gains ahead.

The green bars appear when there’s more than twice the normal average of buying in a stock. As you can see, my system triggered on November 8. So the big buyers are back to play.

And the last three times XLF triggered my system, it marched higher. The average return a year later was an astonishing 26%.

Instance

Date

XLF One-Year Return

1

8/3/2016

33.6%

2

11/15/2016

23.2%

3

2/6/2019

20.7%

4

11/8/2019

?

 Average

25.8%


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And as I mentioned, President Trump just handed us a gift.

You see, financial stocks suffered a broad sell-off on Tuesday morning as trade-war fears sent the 10-year Treasury yield toward its biggest decline in over three years. Investors panicked, giving us an even better entry price into XLF. It’s been down as much as 2.8% since December 2.

But my system doesn’t care about any of that. It looks at one thing and one thing only: big institutional buying. And we’re seeing it again.

Financial stocks are headed higher in the coming months. So take advantage of this setup and add some financials to your portfolio today.

If you want broad exposure to the sector, consider XLF. It’ll position you for a possible 26%-plus return by this time next year.

This Industry Just Started Seeing Big Buying

By Jason Bodner, editor, Palm Beach Trader

It was the summer of 2001…

I’d just started my job at an investment bank in London. And the days were grueling.

As the newbie, I had to get everyone’s lunches… make their teas (this was London, after all)… and take all sorts of verbal abuse in the process.

But then, luck struck. Michael P. shouted through the speaker at all 25 traders on my desk:

I’ve had enough of you all thinking you know more than me! I want your most junior trader to cover me. I’ll mold him how I want.

I was that junior trader. And Michael P.? He was the biggest derivatives trader in Europe – and an absolute bear to deal with.

He traded over 2,000 stocks. And he wanted me to find every trade over $5 million… every day… across all of Europe.

Heaven help me if I missed one.


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I knew I couldn’t track that many stocks alone. So I coded computer programs to help me. And that’s when I learned the biggest lesson of my life…

To make big money in the markets, you have to follow the big money.

You see, guys like Michael P. can send the price of a stock rocketing higher. When they buy, they buy multimillion-dollar chunks.

But here’s the thing: They don’t want you to know they’re buying until they’re finished. So they try to cover their tracks.

It took me years of studying. But I finally built a system to track them down before anyone else.

And today, I’ll tell you exactly which sector the big money is buying now – and how to ride alongside it for big profits…


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My Unbeatable Stock-Picking System

I spent much of my Wall Street career (including time with big firms like Cantor Fitzgerald) working on computer programs to track big-money buying in the markets.

It cost me over $250,000 and years of my life. But it’s the best stock-picking system I know of.

Here’s how it works…

It scans 5,500 stocks every day, using algorithms to rank each one for strength. It also looks for the signs of big-money investors. And when it sees them moving in or out of a stock, it raises a yellow flag.

I put these yellow flags through another filter. If the flag turns red, it means the big money is selling. If it turns green, it means the big money is buying…

It’s that simple: When I see green, the big money is buying. So where is it headed next?


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Big Money Is Buying Here

The chart below shows the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV). It holds 94 of the top companies in the space.

The green bars appear when there’s more than 1.5 times the average amount of buying in a stock. In other words, it’s showing us the big-money buying.

And as you can see, each time big money comes in, it’s off to the races…

My system triggered on it most recently on November 7. And it’s not too late to ride this new wave of buying. You see, we went back and crunched the numbers…

We’ve seen this level of big buying seven times since 2016. And the average six-month return after our signal triggered is around 11%. Annualized, that would translate to 22% per year.

Instance

Date

IGV Six-Month Return

1

2/16/2017

16.3%

2

6/24/2017

7.8%

3

9/21/2017

20.8%

4

1/20/2018

10.6%

5

5/25/2018

0.5%

6

2/1/2019

16.7%

7

6/29/2019

4.2%

8

11/7/2019

?

 Average

11%

So if you want exposure to the software space, consider IGV. If history is a guide, you could make 22% or more over the next year riding alongside the big money.

Why the Platinum Peak Could Be Behind Us

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud


If you want a near-guaranteed way to generate poor returns, this is it…

I’ve spent more than 20 years investing. And I’ve found that betting with the crowd almost never wins. In fact, I’ve spent my career trying to do the exact opposite. That’s how you really make money.

Longtime readers know that mom-and-pop investors tend to buy at the worst possible moments. They sit on the sidelines through most of the rally and then pile in at the end… once the rest of the crowd has done the same.

This happens all over markets, from stocks to real estate to commodities. And we’re seeing this setup play out right now in the precious metals market, too.

Platinum rallied more than 25% from its bottom in August 2018 to its peak in September this year. Now, the crowd is piling into the trade. And according to history, that means the top could be in.

Let me explain…


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Wild levels of investor sentiment can give us incredibly valuable information. They tell us when an investment is too loved or too hated… and that, in turn, tells you to buy or sell.

One fantastic source of sentiment data is the Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report. It’s a weekly report that tells us what futures traders are doing with their money.

This kind of real-money indicator is as good as it gets in the sentiment world. And it’s a great contrarian tool when it hits extreme levels.

The simple truth is that when futures traders all bet in one direction, the opposite is likely to occur. And that’s exactly what we are seeing in platinum today.

After a strong rally in 2019, bets on higher platinum prices hit a multiyear high. In fact, we’ve only seen levels this high three other times over the last decade. Take a look…

Futures traders are all betting on higher platinum prices once again. And those bullish bets recently hit their highest level in roughly three years.

We’ve only seen sentiment get this bullish three other times over the past decade. Similar cases happened in 2013, 2014, and 2016.

Each time, platinum prices dropped over the next year. And the overall losses were substantial. Take a look…

Futures traders went all-in on platinum prices at the worst times back then. And they lost double digits over the next year in each case.

Platinum has already pulled back since peaking in September. But with bullish bets at multiyear highs, prices could fall much further.

Don’t make the mistake of getting caught up in the crowd. Futures traders are wildly bullish. And that means the top could already be in for this precious metal.

Here’s Why Stocks Will Continue to Hit All-Time Highs

By C. Scott Garliss, editor, Stansberry NewsWire


Stocks continue to hit new highs. And the market’s current record run is coming from an unexpected source… corporate earnings.

Heading into the current reporting season, analysts were pessimistic. For the third quarter, they expected the earnings of S&P 500 Index member companies to fall 4.6%.

Only a few months earlier, those same analysts were anticipating a 0.6% decline. So clearly, they expected that the negative headlines would be baked into company results.

That turned out to be a blessing, though.

All that pessimism has made it easy for companies to beat estimates. Companies have beaten earnings expectations at a huge pace this quarter.

That’s helped propel stocks higher. Plus, there’s another reason we could see this rally continue in the coming weeks.

Let me explain…


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Through the end of last week, 92% of the S&P 500’s companies have released earnings. A huge 75% of those companies reported an earnings-per-share beat, versus the five-year average of 72%. Earnings have tended to be 3.9% better than expected.

Sales have also been better than expected, too. So far this season, 60% of companies have reported better-than-expected sales. And those sales have been 0.8% above expectations. The blended revenue growth rate has been 3.1%, picking up steam from 2.8% a couple of weeks ago.

The results caught the market by surprise. But they shouldn’t have. During this bull run, analysts have tended to underestimate earnings.

And it looks like Wall Street is setting itself up for a repeat in the fourth quarter.

In October, analysts began lowering their next earnings estimates even further, dropping them by 2.8%. That’s below the five-year average decline of 1.7% during the first month of the quarter. Since this summer, analyst expectations for the fourth quarter have dropped from growth of 5.6% to a decline of 1.4%.

Once again, Wall Street’s expectations could be overly conservative. It’s also worth noting that analysts are anticipating a rebound in earnings growth starting in early 2020. This all bodes well for stock prices going forward. But it’s not the only catalyst out there…

Even as the catalyst of earnings beats is removed from the market, another one will replace it: buybacks.

Companies are prohibited from repurchasing their shares in the weeks leading up to their earnings releases. So the end of the reporting season means they can resume buying back shares.

Take a look at the chart below. It measures the performance of the top 100 stocks with the highest buyback ratio in the S&P 500 Index.

Clearly, owning companies that buy back their own shares is a good thing. And it’s positive for the overall market, too.

Consumer-electronics giant Apple (AAPL) is the single largest corporate share repurchaser. It’s already announced fourth-quarter earnings, so the company is likely back in the market buying shares. And even though Apple is the biggest repurchaser, it’s far from alone.

Based on the activity in the first half of this year, S&P 500 companies will likely buy back as much as $1 trillion worth of stock in 2019. Not only would this break last year’s record of $806.4 billion, it would also provide support for the stock market heading into year’s end.

In short, negative sentiment is a big reason why stocks have been hitting all-time highs. Most companies have found it easy to beat Wall Street’s low expectations. Now, that negativity is setting the market up for a solid fourth quarter… And companies getting back out there to buy shares is another positive.

When you combine the two, it’s easy to see why stocks have been hitting – and should continue to hit – all-time highs. And it’s why you want to stay long right now.

This Simple Idea Can Snowball Your Wealth

By Chaka Ferguson, managing editor, Palm Beach Daily

It’s slow and boring… but it’s one of the surest ways to build wealth…

It’s the law of uninterrupted compounding.

Compounding is a simple investment strategy in which you put your money in an investment that pays interest. At the end of the year, you take the interest you earned and reinvest it with your original stake.

Now, your interest earns a return, as well.

The next year, you’ll get a bigger interest payment. Then, you’ll reinvest that payment, and so on…

It’s a key lesson I learned from my friend and PBRG co-founder Tom Dyson.

If you’re not familiar with Tom, he was co-editor for The Palm Beach Letter along with PBRG guru Teeka Tiwari. Like Teeka, Tom doesn’t shy away from bold, off-the-grid ideas he believes can build your wealth.

(I consider Teeka and Tom two of the top investing minds in our industry. Yet, you’ll seldom find these titans on tape together. So I dug up a couple of rare conversations between them out of the PBRG archives to share with you. Click here to watch them.)

Tom once told me a snowball is the best analogy for compounding:

As you roll the ball through the snow, the surface area gets bigger. The more surface area on the snowball, the more snow it picks up. The snowball gains mass slowly at first… but pretty soon, you can’t move it because it’s so huge. Gradually, the interest you earn grows, and your reinvestments increase. And the longer you allow your money to compound uninterrupted, the more it grows.

Today, I’ll show you the power of compounding to build your wealth, and why it’s a mistake to interrupt it.


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The Hockey Stick

Tom taught me the key to compounding is to let it work over many years.

Just look at the chart below… It shows the value of an account growing at 10% per year over 60 years. We call this the “hockey stick” chart, because the money grows slowly for several decades, then really picks up speed after about 40 years.

If you don’t interrupt it, compounding produces a fortune.

At 10% interest, it takes 40 years for $10,000 to grow into $411,000 (see the red arrow).

That’s pretty good. But do you see what happens next? The growth of the account explodes.

By year 50, it’s grown to just over $1 million.

By year 60, it’s grown to more than $3 million.

In short, the power of compounding is most effective when you let it work over many decades.


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Avoid This Mistake

Now, the compounding process works only if you don’t interrupt it. That means you can’t pull money out of the account along the way.

The chart below shows what happens if you make an early withdrawal and pull $150,000 out of your account in year 40.

As you can see, first, the balance in your account drops. That’s the red line you see dipping below the black line.

Second, there’s less money in the account to produce interest. You’ve interrupted the compounding.

Look what it does to your wealth…

In year 50, you’ve got $713,000, instead of $1 million. And by year 60, you’re left with $2 million instead of $3 million.

Your account balance is $1 million less in year 60.

As you can see, one small withdrawal causes your wealth to plummet.

Thirty-, 40-, and 50-year periods are long. They’re hard for most people to fathom. But we use these time frames to illustrate one important point:

Tom says interrupting the compounding process – by liquidating part or all of your funds – is the single biggest destroyer of wealth.


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As he points out, these interruptions are not always easy to spot:

For example, a 20% decline in the stock market interrupts the compounding process in your 401(k) account. That’s because your account balance dropped by 20%. And you have less money producing interest.

Or, you could cash out part of your 401(k) or IRA to buy a new car or house or to give a gift. That interrupts compounding as well.

Or, consider your child’s college fund. You start putting money into it when your child is born. It compounds and grows tax-free in a Coverdell account or 529 plan.

But when your child reaches college age, you liquidate the account to pay for tuition expenses. You’ve interrupted the compounding process after only 18 years.

Bottom line: To benefit from the snowball effect, don’t interrupt your compounding.

If you want to determine how much your money can grow using the power of compound interest, try the Investor.gov compound interest calculator. It’s a free tool you can use to plan your financial future. I suggest you bookmark it.


Now, leaving your money alone and letting it compound can produce great wealth. But there’s one downside to this: Interest rates are at historic lows.

Let’s say you invested $100,000 in a Treasury bond at 7% and then reinvested those funds over 30 years. You’d end up with about $760,000.

Today, the average interest rate across bank accounts and bonds is closer to 1%. So you go from making about $660,000 on your principle to about $35,000. That’s a 95% reduction.

Teeka Tiwari says these low rates are creating an income crisis for savers.

But here’s the good news… He’s found a way for you to take back control of your own financial future – without putting your current financial position at risk.

It’s a system that can help you take $12,000 per month in extra cash off the table – often in only a few days. So you can take your original stake off the table… and simply roll your profits into each new investment, so you’re essentially playing with “house money.”

It’s a completely new way to compound. And Teeka has all the details right here