Legendary Stock-Picker Predicts Best-Performing Stock of 2020

Double-Digit Gains in the S&P 500 Index Over the Next Year?

The fall in the fear gauge is actually a sign of more gains ahead. In fact, you can expect double-digit gains in the S&P 500 Index over the next year, based on what’s happening right now.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth


In March, the market’s “fear gauge” hit its highest level since 2008.

That was during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. The market was crashing. And folks were terrified.

Today, fear in the market has subsided as stocks close in on new highs. It’s more than that, though…

This fall in the fear gauge is actually a sign of more gains ahead. In fact, you can expect double-digit gains in the S&P 500 Index over the next year, based on what’s happening right now.

Let me explain…


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Longtime readers know that when I refer to the market’s “fear gauge,” I’m talking about the CBOE Volatility Index (“VIX”).

When uncertainty shows up in the market, people get scared… and the VIX starts to move higher. It can be a great contrarian indicator, showing when folks are giving up on stocks.

Now, we know we want to buy after folks get scared. But remember, uncertainty can always drive the VIX higher than you can imagine.

So instead of just looking at when the VIX hits new highs, we want to see what happens when that fear starts to dissipate.

Again, the VIX spiked in March as pandemic fears took over. But it has fallen recently. While this measure peaked above 80, it’s now below 35 again.

To see what happens when fear subsides, you need to look at every time that the VIX rose above and fell back below a level of 35… like we saw recently. These spikes highlight fear extremes and let us know when things are getting back to normal.

Now that there’s less coronavirus uncertainty in the market, the VIX is back down. Take a look…

You can see the massive spike in the VIX in March. But levels have fallen dramatically since then.

Historically, when the VIX falls back from record highs, it’s a good sign for U.S. stocks. And that means now is actually a great time to buy.

Since 1990, we’ve seen 41 other times that the VIX has rallied above and fallen back below 35. And buying after these extremes often leads to outperformance…

Similar extremes have led to winning trades 82% of the time over the next year. And history shows you can expect solid outperformance compared with a buy-and-hold strategy…

Previous instances have led to 6% gains in six months and a solid 12% gain over the next year. That crushes the typical 7% annual return.

Simply put, the VIX falling back to more normal levels is an “all clear” sign to own stocks, based on history. And that’s happening right now.

It might seem crazy, but now is a fantastic time to buy. History says more gains are likely on the way.

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Big Gains for Contrarian Investors?

The pessimism we’re seeing now tells me the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index are headed higher. If so, it’ll mean big gains for contrarian investors – and big losses for those caught on the short end of the trade.

Editor’s note: Did you miss it? Earlier this week, Steve held an online event to share why real estate is booming today. He says right now – in the wake of a global pandemic – we’re getting a “perfect storm” for Americans to invest in this lucrative asset class. And it’s time to act…

His brand-new project is an easy way to do it through the stock market. You’ll even have the option to get in on private real estate deals – something we’ve never been able to facilitate before. And for a short time, you can join us as a Charter Member for 66% off the normal price. So don’t wait… Watch a replay of the event to learn more.


By C. Scott Garliss, editor, Stansberry NewsWire

You should always be a little scared of consensus…

When everyone’s on the same side of a trade, it typically goes against them.

The reason for this is simple: If everyone’s bullish on an idea at the same time, who’s left to buy and push it higher?

The only momentum that’s coming is likely to be lower. And the opposite is true, too…

Investors today are betting that the market will fall. They’re piling into the same shorts. And as the downside bet increases, a market rally becomes that much more likely.

The pessimism we’re seeing now tells me the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index are headed higher. If so, it’ll mean big gains for contrarian investors – and big losses for those caught on the short end of the trade.

Let me explain…


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Short-selling may seem complicated at first. But it’s actually very simple.

To short an investment, you sell it up front, knowing you’ll have to buy it back at a later date. The trick is that you hope to buy it back at a lower price.

If you “sell high and buy low,” you make money on the trade. You’re betting the price will fall.

It’s the reverse of a typical “long” investment – where you buy expecting that the stock will go higher. But there’s another key difference many investors don’t think about…

When a long investment goes against you, your losses are limited. A stock can only fall to zero – it can’t go any lower. But there’s no limit to how high a stock can soar. So when a short investment goes against you, your downside is infinite.

Right now, investors are overwhelmingly bearish on stocks. To see it, let’s look at the most recent Commitment of Traders report…

This is a weekly report produced by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. It shows us what futures traders are doing with their money.

According to the data, the net short position for the S&P 500 is the largest it has been since 2011. Take a look at the chart below…

Now let’s look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Here, the net short position is the largest on record…

You get the idea. And it’s a similar story with the Nasdaq, too. The net short position increased last week to 1,800 contracts – the largest amount of short interest since 2011.

All this means one thing…

If the stock market keeps going up, all these short traders will need to get out. They’ll need to cover their positions and buy them back.

Typically, that doesn’t happen until it’s too late. At that point, it will be like trying to put out a fire with lighter fluid. Prices could absolutely soar as traders scramble to buy and close their positions.

Importantly, this isn’t the only sign that the market’s pessimism has gone overboard…


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We can also see it in the recent survey from the American Association for Individual Investors (“AAII”). This poll asks investors where they think the stock market is headed over the next six months. It’s simple – they’re either bullish, bearish, or neutral.

According to the most recent report, 48.9% of respondents were bearish. That’s well above the historical average of 30.5%.

On the other side, bullish sentiment came in at just 24.1%, well below its historical average. This shows individual investors are still scared of the market. They’re not prepared for a move higher.

Bearish investors stand to lose a lot of money when this situation reverses. But you don’t have to be one of them…

As investing legend Warren Buffett likes to say, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

Today, investors have too much money riding on a move lower. We’re likely to see the opposite. And that tells me it’s time to be greedy.

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The Coronavirus Won’t Stop Gold Sector From Soaring

Which industries to keep on your radar as the pandemic continues? Read below to learn the name of the one industry that’s safer than others.

By Andrey Dashkov, analyst, Casey Research

Hertz was one of the biggest American success stories of the 20th century. And now, it’s one of the highest-profile failures.

Founded over 100 years ago by 22-year-old Walter Jacobs, Hertz was essentially a startup, not unlike those launched in Silicon Valley by ambitious entrepreneurs today.

Over the next century, Hertz grew to over 12,000 locations and over $9.6 billion in annual revenue. It became one of the biggest car rental companies in America.

But the good times appear to be over for Hertz. Back in May, it filed for bankruptcy.

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It’s obvious Hertz wasn’t prepared for a crisis like this. It’s just one example of a once-thriving company that’s been decimated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, the market decided that Hertz will be fine – and that speculating on it after it filed for bankruptcy was a good idea.

Its shares are still in high demand thanks to novice investors, making Hertz seem like a good deal. This is why you have to be careful investing in popular, mainstream companies.

There are much better ways to put your speculative capital to work.

And below, I’ll show you which industries to keep on your radar as the pandemic continues… and the one industry that’s safer than others.

First, let’s talk about what’s going on with Hertz…


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The Hertz Saga

It’s easy to see what triggered Hertz’s downfall. Due to COVID-19, fewer people are traveling, so the demand for rental cars disappeared.

Hertz wasn’t prepared. Despite its high revenue before the pandemic, it posted losses in four out of the past five years. It also has over $20 billion in total debt.

Now, Hertz is in bankruptcy.

However, if you’ve been watching Hertz’s share price, you may think the company has turned itself around.

On May 21, the day before it filed bankruptcy, Hertz’s shares traded at $3.07. After it filed, its shares collapsed, falling all the way to $0.56 on May 26. That’s an 82% drop.

Normally, that would have been it for Hertz. But then, the share price staged a rally of monster proportions, soaring by almost 10 times in a matter of days – breaking $5.50 on June 8.

As of writing, it’s down two-thirds from that level – and only 36% below its pre-bankruptcy level.

And Hertz continues to be heavily traded. It’s even trending on popular trading applications – like Robinhood, where there are currently over 167,000 users invested in Hertz, up from less than 2,000 three months ago.

But just because it’s popular doesn’t mean it’s worth buying. You should stay away from Hertz. The company is already in bankruptcy. Its equity is essentially worthless.

And the Securities and Exchange Commission agrees. On Wednesday, trading for Hertz was briefly halted after the company tried to raise an additional $500 million in new shares. After the SEC stepped in, the shares were retracted – and Hertz even warned potential buyers that its equity would probably become worthless.

But it’s not the only company suffering from this pandemic…


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Watch Out for These Sectors

The pandemic is tossing a curveball at all kinds of companies. While Hertz and the car rental industry have been on shaky ground for years, even sectors that were once considered rock-solid may not be so safe anymore.

So, I decided to look at the historical data of bankruptcies in the US to understand what industries are more susceptible… and how some of our favorite ones, like gold, compare.

I looked at 395 bankruptcies that took place over the last 20 years, from a wide variety of industries with companies listed on US stock exchanges.

In short, gold and gold miners did very well. The chart below shows the five industries with the highest number of bankruptcies since 2000. To be clear, gold is not the sixth-highest industry for bankruptcies. It is only in the chart as a comparison.

Even though the gold industry is one of the most volatile, gold companies don’t go bankrupt nearly as often as those in industries like application software, biotech, or oil and gas.

Even taking into account the sizes of each of these industries, bankruptcies in the gold sector still occur at a lower rate compared with other industries.

One of the reasons is that gold is an extremely resilient commodity. That means miners tend to perform especially well in times of crisis, while other companies struggle.

We’re seeing this today. While the world is struggling with COVID-19, and long-time giants like Hertz are going down, the gold industry is outperforming the broader market.

Since the March 23 selloff, gold is up 11%. And gold miners have outperformed the S&P 500 by about 11 percentage points.

Of course, there are still risks. Mining juniors can deliver both stellar returns and big disappointments. That’s why we always suggest that you diversify your portfolio and don’t bet the farm.

If you want to speculate – and have a lower chance of running into worthless companies – the gold mining sector is a good place to start. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is an excellent way to get some exposure. It holds a basket of major gold miners that are sure to do well as gold continues its rise.


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Big stories like Hertz get all the attention… but if you want to find profitable opportunities most investors only dream of, you have to look outside the mainstream.

That’s why you need to hear this urgent message about the coming 5G revolution. Some investors are expecting to make a fortune from this trend… but there’s a fatal flaw in the technology that few know about. And it could stop the 5G story dead in its tracks.

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Teeka Tiwari: My Disturbing Wall Street Discovery

Teeka Tiwari: At the beginning of the second quarter of this year, I noticed a string of strange anomalies in my trading data. The trading action was so far off the norm, I knew there had to be a flaw somewhere in my data collection.

By Teeka Tiwari, editor,  Palm Beach Daily

Sometimes, a $1.4 billion fine is just the price of doing business.

For most companies, it’d be a death blow. But for Wall Street bankers, it’s barely a slap on the wrist.

Let me explain…

After decades of bad behavior, Wall Street’s misconduct truly got out of hand during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. It was so bad, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched one of the biggest investigations in its history.

In 2003, the SEC hit Wall Street and 10 of its biggest bankers with a $1.4 billion fine.

In one example, analysts from Credit Suisse published false reports on Digital Impact, an early dot-com marketing company. Undisclosed to the public, bankers at Credit Suisse held a stake in the company.

Likely, millions of dollars flowed into Digital Impact’s stock thanks to favorable ratings. All the while boosting the value of Credit Suisse’s stake in the company.

In 2000, the 10 firms charged had made over $213 billion… That’s in just one year.


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Put together the decades of unchecked abuse, and the $1.4 billion “fine” becomes meaningless in comparison.

But all of that is old news now.

The reason I’m writing to you today is because Wall Street is yet again up to its old tricks of feeding off the savings of America…

My Disturbing Discovery

At the beginning of the second quarter of this year, I noticed a string of strange anomalies in my trading data.

Data that had been working for years suddenly went “wonky.” Trades built on sound methods and data started failing.

The trading action was so far off the norm, I knew there had to be a flaw somewhere in my data collection.

That’s when my team and I started a three-month journey to get to the bottom of what was happening to the data feeds my subscribers and I rely on.

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It wasn’t easy. We’ve spent over $1 million researching it, including consulting with experts… buying massive data sets… and building algorithms from the ground up with a whole new data set.

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Big Wall Street firms, hedge fund managers, and big-money men of every ilk were making public statements that had the effect of changing the data we see on our charts.

At the same time, they were relying on a different way to “hide” their activity (much of which was opposite to their stated positions), that it never showed up in the charts you and I rely on.

These aren’t trades you’ll see on the New York Stock Exchange ticker tape. They don’t show up on volume charts. And you’ll never have the chance to get in on them.

In fact, our research suggests 40% of all trading will never show up on the public charts.

No wonder my performance was lagging. The good news is, once I factored this data in, our trading results improved dramatically.


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On Thursday, June 25, at 8 p.m. ET, I’ll reveal exactly how Wall Street is secretly getting away with billions of dollars in profits by misleading the public.

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During the event, I’ll also show you how I’ve been using this simple strategy to generate backtested trades that yield an average of $19,740 from a simple two-minute trade. So don’t delay, click here to reserve your seat.

Palladium is a Precious Metal to Keep a Close Eye on Today

Palladium earned its place as the most valuable precious metal in the world in 2019. And at nearly $2,000 an ounce, it still trades for more than the value of gold and platinum today.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

It didn’t take long for traders to abandon one of the best performers of 2019…

This asset more than doubled the return of gold and silver last year. And it was up more than 50% in total.

All of that success turned on a dime in February, though. What goes up eventually falls back to Earth… And traders entered full-on “panic mode” when it happened.

Today, this precious metal is down 32% since its February peak. And traders have had enough.

Futures traders have completely abandoned the metal. They’ve forgotten about the success it had last year. And this means we could see another big rally get underway soon.

Let me explain…


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Palladium earned its place as the most valuable precious metal in the world in 2019. And at nearly $2,000 an ounce, it still trades for more than the value of gold and platinum today.

Still, despite its rise to dominance, investors aren’t holding on to the success of last year.

The recent downturn in palladium has them spooked. They’ve sold in a hurry.

We can see this sentiment extreme through the Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report for palladium. This weekly report tells us what futures traders are doing with their money.

That’s important… because when these traders are all betting in one direction, the opposite is likely to occur.

Lately, futures traders are placing record bearish bets on palladium. Take a look…

Investors have given up on palladium. These COT levels are the lowest we’ve seen in years, which tells us futures traders expect the fall to continue.

Unfortunately for these folks, history shows they are likely making a terrible mistake.

We saw similar negative sentiment in 2012, 2016, and 2018. Bets on lower palladium prices reached similar levels back then. But in each case, selling was a bad idea…

First was May 2012. Traders wanted nothing to do with palladium… But the metal then rallied 23% through May 2013. Selling at that time was the wrong call.

Another bearish event happened in February 2016. Palladium was down more than 30% from its 2015 high. Things turned around, though…

Palladium jumped 56% through February 2017. If you bet against palladium in February 2016 alongside these traders, you missed out on huge gains.

Our most recent bearish case came in August 2018. Once again, getting out then would have cost you big time. The metal rallied 57% through August 2019.


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Simply put, futures traders tend to get it wrong at the extremes. And they’re giving up on palladium right now, in an extreme way.

History shows us that following their lead is a bad idea. In fact, palladium is likely to take off thanks to this hugely negative sentiment.

The trend hasn’t reversed yet, so it’s not safe to buy today. But once that happens, palladium is set up to retake its star-performer status. And that makes it a precious metal to keep a close eye on today.