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Dr.Steve Sjuggerud – The Melt Up is back

This morning, I want to give you a little sneak peek from my latest issue of True Wealth.

In the issue we just published last Friday, I wrote:

“After a worrisome December, the Melt Up is back.”

My thinking comes down to a simple indicator called the advance/decline line.

The advance/decline line looks at how many stocks in the U.S. went up in a day versus how many went down.

If more stocks rise than fall in a day, then the advance/decline line will rise. If more stocks fall than rise, the advance/decline line will fall.

It’s a great way to see how strong the stock market really is.

So what’s it doing today?

Well, just last week… the advance/decline line broke out to new all-time highs.

In other words, we’re seeing major rallies in stocks across the board again.

And that’s one reason why today’s bull market is NOT over.

I laid out several other reasons in last week’s Bull vs. Bear Summit. If you’re interested, the replay will be available only until Friday night (that’s tomorrow).


Limited-Time Replay

The 2019 Bull vs. Bear Summit

Join Dr.Richard Smith’s Offer for 2019 Bull vs Bear Summit Attendees plus Grab The Bonuses – Click Here

I strongly encourage you to check it out before midnight Friday.

As part of the special offer made during last week’s Bull vs. Bear Summit, you can claim 1 free bonus year to True Wealth… where I’ll show you the exact stocks you need to own right now, for this final leg of the Melt Up.

Click here for details.

How to Develop Expert-Level Intuition as an Investor

By Dr. Richard Smith – TradeStops

What does it mean to have good intuition… or even expert-level intuition?

When you have expert-level intuition, making the correct decision comes naturally most of the time. You don’t have to force the issue or fight against yourself. It simply “feels right.”

Importantly, you can develop this intuitive sense with investing – what some would call a “gut feeling.”

It doesn’t mean you’ll always avoid mistakes or losses. But it does mean your intuition can be your ally rather than your enemy.

When your intuition has been trained to steer you in the right direction, it means you can “trust your gut” and lean into it… reinforcing your odds of investment success.

Today, I’ll show you how this is possible, and the three things you need in order to train your investor’s intuition…


Limited-Time Replay

The 2019 Bull vs. Bear Summit

Join Dr.Richard Smith’s Offer for 2019 Bull vs Bear Summit Attendees plus Grab The Bonuses – Click Here

What I call expert-level intuition is more formally known as “recognition-primed decision-making,” or the “RPD” model. It’s what allows experts to make intuitive decisions in complex situations.

One of the most famous examples of how this works is a real-world study of experienced firefighters, conducted by cognitive researcher and intuition expert Dr. Gary A. Klein…

One commander told Klein about a time his team was fighting a fire inside a house. The fire was small, but the flames were strangely persistent. For whatever reason, they refused to die out. Meanwhile, the room felt oddly warm.

The team leader was puzzled at first. Something didn’t add up. Suddenly, all his instincts screamed, “Danger!” He scrambled to get the team out of the house. Moments after his crew reached safety, the floor collapsed.

It turned out a fire was raging in the basement. No one had any idea, but the fire commander’s instincts picked up subtle clues that something was off. His experience told him, “This is not how fires are supposed to behave.”

When the fire commander told Klein this story, he said he thought it was ESP, or a kind of sixth sense, that saved his men that day.

But Klein knew it was the power of recognition – the ability of the subconscious to pick up information from small cues and subtle hints, based on experience, and to take the right action as a result (getting everyone out of the house). That’s expert-level intuition.

So how do you develop this skill as an investor?

Daniel Kahneman, the behavioral science pioneer whose Nobel Prize-winning research helped shape our software at TradeSmith, talked about how to make Klein’s discovery work for you in a recent interview.

Kahneman pointed out that to develop expert intuition in a complex field, you generally need three things:

  • A regular world (a consistent and repeating environment)
  • A body of experience (familiarity with different scenarios)
  • Rapid and clear feedback (accurate signals that show what’s happening)

These are all available to investors… but how well you use them depends on you.

The stock market is a regular world in the sense that the same things tend to happen over and over again. Market history never fully repeats, but it certainly “rhymes.” The same factors drive investor behavior year in and year out. The same long-term economic cycles continue to oscillate… And so on.

This regular world allows you, as an investor, to develop a body of experienceover time – because future market environments will have characteristics and factors you can recognize.

You can experience different investment scenarios and learn from them. (Ideally, with the more painful and unpleasant scenarios, you can observe others experiencing them and learn from a distance.)

But in order to turn this body of experience into expert intuition, an investor needs clear feedback on his or her decisions.

And this is where a disciplined investing approach, with structure and rules, truly pays off.

If someone says he has 20 years of experience in the market, but he never developed any logical rules or a structured way of doing things in all that time, then his years of experience don’t mean much. He never attempted to turn market feedback into a set of logical, repeatable decisions.

If you do create a set of rules and set out to improve them, however, you give your intuition something to build on. You can look at the market’s feedback on your decisions to determine whether they were good or bad… and whether you should use them again in the future.

Do this consistently over time, and you can develop the natural “feel” – the expert intuition – we are talking about.

The best way to start is to make a plan for your trades, follow the plan, and track the results. Know when you got in, when you’ll get out, and why. Then, improve on that process based on your results.

From there, great software can help you analyze the current state of markets and make wise decisions in the moment. It can also track results from the past and give you meaningful ways to learn from your own investing history.

That is why software designed to help make investors successful (not to replace them) is at the heart of my own work.

When you put it all together, it is possible to develop good intuition, or even expert-level intuition, as an investor. And the benefits are more than just financial.

You’ll find that investing becomes much easier when you no longer fight or sabotage yourself. You’ll improve your chances of making big profits… And you’ll have more fun doing it.

Editor’s note: Richard has designed a simple software solution to help you make better buys and sells… with clear signals to guide your decisions. Not only that, but he recently held a special event to share why it could make a huge difference for your profits in 2019.

For the details, watch a replay of the event right here.

Read Full TradeStops Review Here

This Ain’t the Peak. Here’s Exactly Why…

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud – True Wealth

Last week, we came together for the first-ever Bull vs. Bear Summit

I was on a panel of experts. And I talked through my position as a bull – someone who believes the markets are headed higher.

The bears on the panel, though, made a darn convincing case. (I urge you to watch a replay of the event, if you haven’t already… Read on for the details.)

I think most people will feel more comfortable siding with the bears…

I get it. This bull market has gone on for 10 years. It’s simply easier to “just say no” and sit on your hands. Nobody will fault you for being prudent – right?

Personally, I think that’s a HUGE mistake. To be fully open here, I do believe the bears will be right – eventually.

Just not yet…

I believe the stock market is headed much higher from here. And while sitting on your hands might feel safer, you will most likely miss out on some incredible gains as we approach the final top.

Let me share with you just one reason why: Great stock bull markets, like the one we are in right now, always die the same death…


Limited-Time Replay

The 2019 Bull vs. Bear Summit

Join Dr.Richard Smith’s Offer for 2019 Bull vs Bear Summit Attendees plus Grab The Bonuses – Click Here

Two things happen at the end of a great bull market.

First, stocks reach extreme valuations. Then investors become euphoric and lose their sense of reality.

We saw the second half of this equation most recently in real estate in 2006. Back then, investors expected house prices to soar 20% a year – in a world where incomes and the population were growing by low single digits. That’s what I mean when investors lose their sense of reality.

Right now, investors are nowhere near the euphoria they felt about real estate in 2006. Stock investors are more pessimistic than optimistic today.

But what about valuations?

The last great boom peaked in early 2000. Tech stocks were the leaders back then – and I expect they will be the leaders this time around, too.

So let’s look at the valuations of the major tech names at the end of 1999 versus their valuations at the end of 2018 – and see how they compare. We’ll use the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, one of the most common ways to measure value.

I want you to take a look at the valuations in this table closely – and tell me what you see…

Here’s what I see:

  • Microsoft ended 1999 three times more expensive than it ended 2018.
  • Apple ended 1999 three times more expensive than it ended 2018.
  • Intel and IBM were almost four times more expensive in 1999 than in 2018.
  • Oracle was seven times more expensive in 1999 than in 2018.

Of course, the tech giants Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) didn’t trade back in 1999. But Google’s P/E ratio at the end of last year was 24… close to Microsoft’s.

Facebook’s P/E at the end of 2018 – stunningly to me – was just 17. I say “stunningly” because the company’s profit margin is in excess of 40%! To put this another way, 40% of Facebook’s sales turns straight into profits for the company.

With a profit margin like that, Facebook’s stock wasn’t expensive at the end of 2018 – it was cheap!

I apologize for running all those numbers by you. But they are important… They make the point: We are not in a stock mania yet. Not at all.

Nearly all great stock market booms end in a mania phase. I expect this 10-year bull market will do the same.

You can disagree with me… and sit on your hands and wait for the crash. Or you can take advantage of the Melt Up phase of this great bull market. I suggest you do the latter.

I also urge you to watch the Bull vs. Bear Summit, so you can hear both sides of the debate and decide how you’ll handle the markets.

Importantly, during the summit, my good friend Dr. Richard Smith shared exactly how you can make money in the next 12-18 months… regardless of whether the bulls or the bears are right.

(I’m biased, of course… I believe the bulls will be right. But you can make the call for yourself.)

Stocks are not in a mania – yet. But they will enter one before this great bull market is over. That’s my take.

Get your money in place to take advantage of it.

Editor’s note: The Bull vs. Bear Summit will only be available to watch for a short time… so don’t miss it. You’ll hear Steve’s latest thoughts on the Melt Up… Plus, you’ll learn how a simple set of tools can help you profit in today’s much-debated stock market. Click here to view the replay now.

One of the most important tools for any investor

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud – True Wealth

During last week’s Bull vs. Bear Summit (which you can still  watch right here for a limited time), I talked about one of the most important tools for any investor.

It’s a trailing stop. Which is essentially a pre-determined price you’re committed to selling a stock, after it has fallen.

Trailing stops are a great way to limit your downside, and un-limit your upside on every position in your portfolio – which is why I recommend them on just about every recommendation I make.

It’s a simple strategy. But it can be hard to implement. Tracking all the numbers that go into the calculations can get complicated.

In fact, years ago – I used to track mine on Excel spreadsheets. Definitely not an ideal system.

Then I met my friend and colleague Dr. Richard Smith… who built an entire software system to help me track my trailing stops.

But then he took it a step further. Richard’s a U.C. Berkeley-educated mathematician and Ph.D., and he used his math background to create  an even better version of my trailing stop system.

In fact… here’s what the returns of my True Wealth recommendations would’ve looked like, if I had simply left the selling to Richard and his system:

BvB Summit DailyWealth Chart

For a limited time only, you can  check out Richard’s software risk-free for the next 30 days.

This is a no-brainer offer for anyone who reads my work. So I encourage you to check it out while it’s still available.

Read Full TradeStops Review Here

Bull vs. Bear Summit Offer – Massive Stock Event Caught On Camera

Last week was a game-changer for anyone with money in stocks…

For the first time in history, some of the most famous Bulls and Bears in the world met under the same roof to debate where stocks are headed in 2019 – and what you can do to prepare.


Limited-Time Replay

The 2019 Bull vs. Bear Summit

Join Dr.Richard Smith’s Offer for 2019 Bull vs Bear Summit Attendees plus Grab The Bonuses – Click Here

Tens of thousands of people from all over the world tuned in to watch.

I was one of them – and I simply can’t believe what these titans of the investing world shared with the audience, live and on camera.

They opened up about the crucial indicators they see in today.s market… their personal investing mistakes… and what they’re currently doing with their own money to profit in 2019.

If you missed it, you’re in luck…

Because we recorded the entire event and just released a full-length replay.

You can check it out right here.