Buy This One Stock In 2021

Is a 60/40 Portfolio Good? More Reasons To Rethink

Investors are now rethinking the conventional “60/40” investment portfolio. And it’s time for you to consider a new game plan, too…

Investors are now rethinking the conventional “60/40” investment portfolio. And it’s time for you to consider a new game plan, too…


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By Mike Barrett, analyst, Extreme Value

U.S. economist Peter Bernstein regarded the 60/40 portfolio to be the “center of gravity” between risk and return…

We’re talking about a 60% allocation to stocks and 40% allocation to bonds.

The idea behind the 60/40 portfolio was simple… Stocks would provide investors with capital appreciation, while bonds would offer both income and a hedge against “black swan” events – like a pandemic, for example.

In Bernstein’s day, a 40% bond portfolio did generally provide folks with real diversification (and real income). When stocks swooned, bonds typically rose… and vice versa.

But as the pandemic took hold last February and March, the 60/40 portfolio failed miserably…

Investors expecting their bond holdings to rise were in for a rude awakening. Morningstar reports that core bond strategies actually lost 3% on average during this span.

Now, that doesn’t sound bad compared with 30% losses (or worse) in stocks. But the 3% “average” loss also masked incredible volatility – something you don’t expect with bonds. For instance, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (BND) was down an astounding 13.5% at one point last March.

Investors are now rethinking the conventional “60/40” investment portfolio. And it’s time for you to consider a new game plan, too…


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Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of BlackRock’s $2.4 trillion global fixed-income group and co-manager of the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio (BASIX), knows that investors can no longer trust the traditional approach. As he recently told Barron’s

If you are holding the same portfolio as two years ago and expect it to do the same, it won’t. You have to restructure how you think about asset allocation, especially fixed income.

Ben Inker, head of asset allocation for prominent money manager GMO, concurs. In the firm’s second-quarter letter to its clients last year, Inker noted that…

All portfolios that include government bonds have both lower expected returns and higher risk than anyone had a right to expect them to have previously.

So with the old playbook becoming obsolete, what should investors do now?

Back in October, living legend Howard Marks published a valuable essay called “Coming Into Focus.” In it, Marks reasoned that the Federal Reserve’s insistence on keeping interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future leaves investors like us with five less-than-ideal options…

  1. Invest as you always have (meaning 40% in bonds) and settle for today’s low returns
  1. Reduce risk in the face of today’s uncertainty and accept even-lower returns
  1. Go to cash at a near-zero return and wait for a better environment
  1. Increase risk in pursuit of higher returns
  1. Put more into special niches and special investment managers

For most investors, settling for lower returns or going entirely to cash – when the Fed has made it abundantly clear that near-zero rates will be the norm for years – simply makes no sense. That means the fourth and fifth items on the list are your only real options today.

In other words, long-term investors need a new portfolio playbook.

My colleague Dan Ferris and I have constructed an ideal replacement for our Extreme Value subscribers. The cornerstone of our strategy is this: You should add exposure to stocks – but only when the risk-reward trade-off is clearly in your favor

Investors are realizing they must now increase their exposure to stocks in order to pursue higher returns. The problem is, that has driven up stock prices – particularly high-quality, widely held names like Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

So to stack the odds of success in your favor, you must insist on buying only when the trade-off between risk and reward is clearly in your favor.

In a recent blog post, New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran published a graphic that perfectly illustrates how we address this challenge in Extreme Value. Notice “the gap” between a company’s intrinsic value and its current share price…

In short, stock prices are driven by investor sentiment. Meanwhile, a company’s intrinsic value is a product of future cash flows. Alternatively, you can think of intrinsic value as the highest expected price a knowledgeable buyer would pay for the entire business.

When investors become euphoric, intrinsic value and share price converge. The gap closes, eliminating what we call the “margin of safety.”

In other words, the share price starts to resemble the highest sales price that the business would command. And in turn, the stock’s potential further upside becomes limited.

The vast majority of stocks today fit into this group, according to our research.

Extreme value occurs when the opposite scenario happens… Pessimism reaches an extreme, causing the gap between intrinsic value and the share price to widen. In turn, the margin of safety expands.

This is when the risk-reward trade-off is most in your favor. That’s because the risk of further downside is limited, while the potential upside is much greater.

To see what I mean, let’s look at a great business we recommended in April as pandemic-related fear raged…

Constellation Brands (STZ) is an alcoholic-beverage giant. Its holdings include the No. 1 imported beer in the U.S. (Corona), the No. 1 sauvignon blanc in the U.S. (Kim Crawford), and the No. 1 imported vodka in the U.S. (Svedka).

The business has an army of loyal consumers, which helps Constellation earn large profits and consistently produce tons of free cash flow.

But as you know, when the pandemic hit, the ensuing shutdowns across the country crushed the restaurant and bar industry. In turn, investors panicked out of Constellation’s stock… It plunged from about $210 per share in February to the low $140s by early April.

More important, as this sell-off played out, the “gap” between Constellation’s intrinsic value and share price became so large that you could drive an oversized 16-wheeler through it


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He explains everything, right here.


And while consumers were stuck inside due to COVID-19 restrictions, they didn’t quit drinking… They simply drank at home. Investors overlooked the fact that roughly 85% of Constellation’s business is done “off premise” at places like grocery stores and liquor stores.

In short, the pandemic didn’t hurt Constellation nearly as much as investors expected. And the huge gap between its price and intrinsic value at the time allowed us to help our subscribers profit…

Today, Constellation is once again trading for well over $210 per share. And subscribers who followed our advice in early April are up about 55%.

In a world of near-zero rates, you must shift exposure toward stocks and away from bonds… which increases your portfolio risk. So to sleep well at night, you absolutely need to become attuned to the gap between share price and intrinsic value.

And you should insist on only adding new positions where the odds of success are clearly stacked in your favor.


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WARNING!!!

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And if you want to take advantage, you must position yourself in the early days of 2021.

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Editor’s note: More people are starting to realize the bull market won’t last forever. But Mike and Dan’s Extreme Value readers are in on the perfect stock idea for these times. It’s a company that can succeed if the bull market continues, but will likely do even better in a downturn… Learn why Dan believes it could be his most important recommendation ever – with 1,000% upside over the long term – right here.

You Want To Own Emerging Market Stocks

You want to own emerging market stocks given the powerful momentum in place today. The trend is strong… and that means more gains are likely.

You want to own emerging market stocks given the powerful momentum in place today. The trend is strong… and that means more gains are likely.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

We’ve gotten a bit numb to new all-time highs here in the U.S.

They seem to happen weekly, if not daily, with the current Melt Up in place. Stocks are soaring… setting new records, then breaking them.

While that has become commonplace in the U.S., it’s not similar everywhere else in the world.

In fact, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) last hit an all-time high in 2007. Unbelievably, that record lasted more than a decade.

EEM is a simple fund that tracks emerging market stocks as a whole. And while we saw this basket of stocks test those highs in 2018, it didn’t break the 2007 all-time high.

Today, EEM has finally broken through those previous records. It hit new all-time highs for the first time in more than 13 years.

Even more, emerging markets experienced a rare phenomenon in the process. And history shows double-digit gains are likely from here as a result.

Let me explain…


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Regular readers know that we always follow the trend. While there are plenty of ways to analyze investments, if prices aren’t going in your favor, little else matters in the short term.

In the case of emerging markets, we just saw the first new high in more than a decade. We also saw these stocks rally 12 days in a row. That’s a rare setup we’ve only seen a handful of times since 2003.

You might wonder why that matters at all. But stringing together multiple positive days in a row usually means the trend is strengthening. And that’s a sign of more gains to come.

Emerging markets are no exception. EEM has been in a strong uptrend for almost a year. And the recent string of up-days led to a new all-time high for this basket of stocks. Take a look…

EEM’s 13-year record was shattered last month. We are officially in uncharted territory for emerging markets. But that’s not a sign to sell just yet.

In fact, we could see even higher highs over the next year. Emerging markets tend to rally double digits after extremes like today’s.

Specifically, emerging markets tend to go up 9.9% per year after these kinds of extremes. And while the typical return in emerging markets has been barely below that level, at 9.7%, the message from today’s extreme is still clear…


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You want to own emerging market stocks given the powerful momentum in place today. The trend is strong… and that means more gains are likely.

Shares of EEM are the simplest way to take advantage of the opportunity. The fund holds the largest and most important companies in emerging markets. And given the powerful uptrend it’s experiencing today, history shows us that it’s worth checking out.

Are You Worried About The Price of U.S. Stocks?

If you’re worried about the price of U.S. stocks, you need to consider China right now.

If you’re worried about the price of U.S. stocks, you need to consider China right now.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

The rally in the U.S. stock market has been impressive…

The S&P 500 is up 78% since bottoming in March. That surge has sent valuations in the U.S. through the roof.

Even more, it’s causing a major imbalance between other world markets.

Chinese stocks, for example, have also been moving higher. But their valuations are nowhere near what we are seeing in the U.S.

In fact, Chinese stocks trade at a 61% discount to their U.S. peers today. That’s one of the largest discounts we’ve seen over the last 15 years. And it’s a strong tailwind for this market over the next year.

Simply put, if you’re worried about the price of U.S. stocks, you need to consider China right now.

Let me explain…


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The U.S. often carries a valuation premium to other markets. And that’s how it should be. It’s the most important stock market in the world, and the largest by a long shot.

The two premier exchanges in the U.S. have a combined market value of $40 trillion. For comparison, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, China’s largest exchange, has slightly less than $5 trillion in market value.

So it’s no surprise that the U.S. sports a higher valuation than most markets. But today’s valuation gap between the U.S. and China is far from normal.

We can see this by looking at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for each market.

Since 2005, Chinese stocks have traded at an average discount of 30% to U.S. stocks based on this measure. Today, they are trading at a 61% discount. Take a look…

As you can see, the discount has largely been widening since 2007. But when the discount nears today’s levels, we tend to see a rally in Chinese stocks.

Take a look at what happened in 2014. Chinese stocks were trading near a 60% discount to U.S. stocks that May. Then, prices started to make a comeback…

China’s market rallied 46% in a year, while U.S. stocks were up just 13%.

We saw another example of this play out in 2016. The valuation gap was back near record levels. But that didn’t last long – Chinese stocks turned higher shortly after…


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China’s market rallied 31% in a year following that extreme. And the discount dropped to nearly 40% over the same time.

Today, the valuation gap between U.S. and Chinese stocks is near its largest on record. China’s market trades at a 61% discount to the U.S.

This won’t last long, based on history. And it’s likely to reverse with a major rally in Chinese stocks. We could see a double-digit run-up in China from here.

If you’re interested in making that bet, the iShares MSCI China Large-Cap Fund (FXI) is the simplest way to do it. It holds a basket of China’s major large-cap companies.

Now, I realize a lot of folks don’t like the idea of investing in China. But today’s opportunity is a good one. And if you’re getting worried about valuations in the U.S., it’s a no-brainer.

Small-cap stocks have tripled the return of large caps since October

Small-cap stocks have tripled the return of large caps since October. Small-cap stocks have tripled the return of large caps since October. But the move is far from over.

Small-cap stocks have tripled the return of large caps since October. Small-cap stocks have tripled the return of large caps since October. But the move is far from over.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

Last October, we saw an incredible setup in a part of the market many investors ignore – small caps. These stocks were trading at a near-50% discount to their larger peers when I first highlighted the massive value disparity. I shared how small caps were likely to outperform as a result. And that’s exactly what’s happened since…

Small caps are up 40% since then. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index of large-cap stocks is up just 12% over the same period.

This is starting to close the valuation gap. Today, small caps are trading for the smallest discount to the S&P 500 in more than a year.

Don’t expect this trend to reverse, though. Small-cap stocks have plenty of upside left.

Let me explain…


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Full details here.


Markets take turns in the limelight. Large caps will beat out smaller companies for a few years… And then the exact opposite will be true.

After underperforming for most of the last decade, small caps are starting to catch investors’ attention once again.

The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 Index has tripled the return of the S&P 500 since mid-October. That kind of move is closing the valuation gap I highlighted at the time.

We can see this using the price-to-book (P/B) ratio for each sector. It measures how expensive a market is based on its assets.

Today, small caps trade at a 34% discount to large caps based on this measure. That’s the smallest discount in more than a year. Take a look…

You can see the discount has been closing quickly. It moved from a multidecade low to much more normal levels. But the chart also shows that this gap has much more room to close from here.

Take a look at what happened from 2001 to 2007. Small caps went from a 50% discount to the S&P 500 to a discount of less than 10% in 2006, and they hovered there for about a year into 2007. Importantly, they also crushed the S&P 500’s returns over those years…

Small caps were up 92% from the end of 2000 into July 2007. The S&P 500 was up just 31%. That’s massive outperformance in small caps.

We saw another example of this from early March 2009 into July 2011. Small caps rallied 158%, while the S&P 500 was up just 110%.

Now, it’s happening again. Small-cap stocks have tripled the return of large caps since October. But the move is far from over.


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“Penny Trade” Pays Warren Buffett as Much as an Extraordinary 4,429%?

image

“Penny Trades” are cheap and explosive…

Warren Buffett grabbed 46 million of them for 1¢ a pop.

Right now, he’s up as much as a rare 4,429% on this trade.

But “Penny Trades” aren’t reserved for billionaires like Buffett.

Thanks to SEC loophole 30.52, you can play them in your brokerage account.

  • One of these “Penny Trades” shot up 183% in one day…
  • Penny Trades can pay far MORE than stocks…
  • Our readers just saw a 19¢ trade shoot up as much as a rare 5,100%…

Here’s the No. 1 “Penny Trade” for RIGHT NOW


If you’re interested in taking advantage of it, the iShares Russell 2000 Fund (IWM) offers a simple way to make the trade. It tracks the benchmark Russell 2000 Index and should move higher as this trend continues.

In short, today’s valuation gap between small caps and their larger peers is closing. But with the discount still at 34%, there’s plenty of upside left in small caps.

President Biden’s “New War” Is Driving This Special Investment Class Higher

Within days of taking office, President Biden declared war. Targeting people who have been at the center of some of the biggest moves in the economy during the last decade. Oil and gas drillers. But this “New War” is creating a massive shift… and lighting a fire under a special class of investments… 

Within days of taking office, President Biden declared war. Targeting people who have been at the center of some of the biggest moves in the economy during the last decade. Oil and gas drillers. But this “New War” is creating a massive shift… and lighting a fire under a special class of investments…

By David Forest, editor, Strategic Investor 

It didn’t take long. Within days of taking office, President Biden declared war.

This isn’t a battle in the Middle East, or even a peacekeeping mission in some far-flung country.

It’s a war right here in America. Targeting people who have been at the center of some of the biggest moves in the economy during the last decade.

Oil and gas drillers.

But this “New War” is creating a massive shift… and lighting a fire under a special class of investments…

In fact, one of these investments recently delivered over 1,700% in just six months.

I’ll tell you more about it below… and how you can set yourself up for these types of gains as this shift takes off…


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“Penny Trade” Pays Warren Buffett as Much as an Extraordinary 4,429%?

image

“Penny Trades” are cheap and explosive…

Warren Buffett grabbed 46 million of them for 1¢ a pop.

Right now, he’s up as much as a rare 4,429% on this trade.

But “Penny Trades” aren’t reserved for billionaires like Buffett.

Thanks to SEC loophole 30.52, you can play them in your brokerage account.

  • One of these “Penny Trades” shot up 183% in one day…
  • Penny Trades can pay far MORE than stocks…
  • Our readers just saw a 19¢ trade shoot up as much as a rare 5,100%…

Here’s the No. 1 “Penny Trade” for RIGHT NOW


This “Weird” Investment’s Rocketing Higher

Just a week after taking office on January 20, President Biden declared war on the oil and gas sector. He ordered a freeze on all new oil and gas projects on federal lands across America.

Biden’s unusual move sent a strong message to the markets. And stocks reacted in a major way.

Since the November 3 election, the “green energy” sector has rocketed higher. Share prices of companies in solar power, electric vehicles, and energy metals took flight.

Many green energy stocks doubled or better the last three months. Two stocks I cover in the lithium industry, for my Strategic Investor advisory, jumped 102% and 195%. Lithium is a key component in batteries for electric vehicles. Investors view it as key to the green energy buildout.

Those gains are exceptional. But one particular class of investments in green energy did even better…

On November 18, an investment with an unusual symbol quietly listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Many investors didn’t – and still don’t – understand what it is.

But since the day it listed in mid-November, this “weird” investment took off. At peak, it’s been up 373% as the green energy sector surged. It’s consistently been one of the biggest daily gainers on my screen the last few months.

Here’s what its trading symbol looks like:

image

Although this symbol appears confusing, it’s actually a trend I’ve been following for some time. The “.WS” shows this is a class of investment that’s extremely easy to buy – just as easy as any stock – but comes with explosive upside that is almost unheard of in the “normal” stock market.

My team and I have used these instruments to book absolutely phenomenal gains in the past year. One of these investments yielded a maximum 4,942% – enough to turn $1,000 invested into an incredible $49,420.

Another of these investments returned 2,805% for us. If you’d thrown in just $500 on this investment, you would have walked away with over $14,000…


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According to MarketWatch, ordinary Americans are being put on “restriction lists,” being banned from using certain businesses.

Why is this happening? And what does it mean for you?

Widely-followed geopolitical expert Nick Giambruno explains:

“This is just the beginning of a much larger movement I’ve been watching unfold for years in the United States.

Law-abiding Americans will soon have a critical decision to make.”

Will you be banned next?

Go here to find out


The Hottest Play in This New Energy Shift

I’m talking about warrants.

Some of you may be familiar with warrants…And my colleague, John Pangere, has written extensively about his system for finding and analyzing warrants in our Strategic Trader advisory.

I won’t get too deep into the details here. But a warrant gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a share of stock at a fixed price at any time during a predetermined period.

And as I’ll show below, they often produce far greater returns than a regular stock…

Though warrants are extremely easy to buy, finding them on your own can be difficult… because it’s a strategy most everyday investors have never heard of.

In fact, John is one of the only analysts anywhere publishing research on warrants. It’s a sector that even the biggest investment banks largely ignore in their research (although investment bankers themselves love warrants. They’re one of the best-kept secrets of billionaire investors. That’s why we often call warrants Warren Buffett’s No. 1 private investment.)

I’ve discussed how warrants allow us to invest in almost any sector. Whether it’s tech, energy, consumer goods, or banking, there’s a warrant for it – if you know where to look.

That’s great news. Warrants carry potential for explosive growth. So if we use them to bet on the hottest sectors in the market, the profit potential is stunning.

Just look at the warrants I showed above, which trade under the symbol MP.WS. These are for one of the hottest plays in green energy right now: rare earth metals.

If you haven’t heard of rare earth metals yet, you’re about to hear lots. If lithium is the lifeblood of the electric vehicle industry, rare earths are the “juice” behind many of the largest defense technologies.

Rare earths are used in guided missiles, fighter jets, and nuclear submarines. As it happens, they’re also a key component for 5G communications technology, and even massive green energy sectors like electric vehicles.

Rare earths are so important, the Pentagon itself wants to mine them. In January, the Defense Department dropped a cool $30 million into a leading rare earths mining company.

How To Retire Rich Off a Single “Boring” Stock

This sector is so critical, it’s getting funding from multiple government agencies. In addition to the Pentagon, the Department of Energy is pouring funds into American rare earths mining. They just awarded $21.9 million to a tiny rare earths company I recommended to readers of my International Speculator resource advisory. Shares of that firm surged as much as 160% in just 12 days.

My readers were ecstatic about the gains. But as the green energy revolution President Biden kicked off unfolds… I see even bigger potential in this sector from warrants…

Juice Up Your Returns With Warrants

With warrants, we can upsize our profits. Let me show you how – using the rare earths play I talked about above, MP.WS.

These warrants are for a rare earths mining company called MP Materials. It owns America’s only operational rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, California.

Now, check out the share price for the common stock of MP Materials. Since the middle of November, it’s jumped over 150%. Pretty damn good.

image

But now, look at the price chart for the MP Materials warrants. Remember, these warrants are just as easy to buy as MP’s stock. But the difference in gains is striking.

image

Since mid-November, MP Materials warrants soared 373%. These warrants multiplied the gains on the common stock.

I know which one I’d want to own.

And the overall gains on the MP Materials warrants were even bigger than that…


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1,761% in Six Months

You see, the MP Materials warrants were originally issued attached to something called a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC for short. It’s a “blank check” company created to go out and acquire active businesses.

If you’d bought the warrants in mid-November, you’d be sitting on a nice 373% gain.

But if you bought warrants of the SPAC back in July of last year, in just six months you could have booked a 1,761% profit – enough to turn just $1,000 into over $17,600.

Soaring sector + high-potential warrants = massive profits.

Now, I’m not recommending MP Materials’ stock or warrants today. I’m just using it as an example.

The point is, there will be more explosive opportunities like this.

Large investment groups are listing new SPACs almost daily. With green energy soaring under President Biden, many of them will target businesses in this sector.

In January, one of the most successful billionaires in natural resources – Robert Friedland – raised $200 million for a SPAC to acquire businesses for a “paradigm shift away from fossil fuels towards the electrification of industry and society.”

Just weeks later, Bill Gates raised $1 billion for a new fund – solely dedicated to clean energy investments.

You can see where this is going. And consider this: all of these SPACs – every single one – come with warrants attached.

If You Don’t Grab These Gains, Someone Else Will

All of these warrants trade on major U.S. stock exchanges. And they’re as simple to buy as regular stocks. But the hard part is knowing how to find them… and how to pick the best ones.

Luckily, that’s exactly what John Pangere and I do – using his unique warrants system – to bring exciting warrant investments to our Strategic Trader advisory. We analyze the underlying trends, and the characteristics of the individual businesses and their warrants, to pinpoint the ones with the biggest upside.

And we don’t want anyone to miss out on this explosive strategy. That’s why we decided to bring warrants to our Strategic Investor advisory, too.

We even put together the first-of-its-kind, five-video Warrants Master Course to help you get into the world of warrants with ease. It’ll walk you through exactly how to trade these warrants, right from your brokerage account. And our top pick to get you started.

I urge you to take advantage of this opportunity – and tap into the stunning profit potential of warrants.

Just ask the people who made over 1,700% gains on rare earths mining with MP Materials warrants during the first inning of Joe Biden’s green energy boom. If you don’t grab these exceptional profits, you can bet someone else will.