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Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: How to Know When to Get Back In?

This is the most important question to answer today – after we just experienced the fastest bear market in our investing lifetimes.

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud


When do you get back in after getting out?

This is the most important question to answer today – after we just experienced the fastest bear market in our investing lifetimes.

In 1996, my friend and colleague Porter Stansberry and I tried to figure it out…

We read everything we could on the topic… In particular, we focused on what the most successful traders and investors did with their money over the past 100 years.

After a lot of reading and research, we came up with a simple two-part system. I’ll share it with you today… including what it means for the markets right now.


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Long story short, we realized that getting back in had two components:

  1. A mathematical one, and
  2. An emotional one.

We learned a lot about what the best investors have done throughout history. And we wanted to devise incredibly “dumb” rules for getting back into an investment – rules so simple that it would be obvious if one of us was trying to break them.

It’s easy to get passionate about your ideas… And most of the time, it’s not a bad thing. But sometimes, the markets go against us. So when do we get out? And then, when do we allow ourselves to get back in?

We already had our “sell” rules in place for the first question. We were already using trailing stops to limit our downside risk – even back in 1996.

But we had to set “buy” guidelines to prevent us from emotionally jumping back into what ultimately might be a bad idea. So we settled on two foolproof rules back then:

  1. If the stock or investment hits a new high, then you are allowed to get back in. (That doesn’t mean you have to get back in – a new high might be too expensive for your taste.)
  1. If No. 1 doesn’t look like it’s going to happen, then you need a “cooling-off period” before you are allowed to buy again.

The first rule takes care of the math. The second rule takes care of the emotions…

For the first one, the principle is straightforward. A new high means that the investment has unequivocally erased its loss. And therefore, whatever caused that loss is likely behind us. That keeps it simple and sensible.

For the second one, think about it like buying a gun. There’s often a three-day “cooling-off period” involved. This way, a person can’t just get emotional, buy a gun, and immediately take the law into his own hands. The waiting period gives him time to come to his senses. It’s probably not scientific – it’s just a measure in place to control emotions.

We set our cooling-off period before buying back in at six months. So if a beaten-down investment doesn’t hit a new high to erase the past, you then have to wait past the cooling-off period. There’s no real science to it – it’s just to keep you from making a bad decision based on emotion.

So what does this all mean right now?


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Well, COVID-19 came out of nowhere and clobbered the stock market. Nobody saw it coming. And stocks fell into an official bear market faster than we have ever experienced in our investing lifetimes.

I recommended my readers follow their trailing stops. But today, based on our 1996 rules, it’s time to get back in…

You see, the Nasdaq recently blew past 10,000 for the first time in history – an all-time high. This new high is incredibly important…

Remember what I said earlier? “A new high means that the investment has unequivocally erased its loss. And therefore, whatever caused that loss is likely behind us.”

This is where we are, right now.

To me, this means that the market has moved beyond COVID-19. It means that the Melt Up can pick up where it left off. And it means that stocks can soar far higher than anyone can imagine.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t mean that COVID-19 is behind us. I don’t mean that we can’t have a second wave or that there won’t be more struggles ahead. What I mean is that the stock market has already assessed these factors, and it’s not worried.

We’ve seen new highs in the Nasdaq. So according to our two simple rules, it’s safe to get back in. And I recommend you do just that.

Double-Digit Gains in the S&P 500 Index Over the Next Year?

The fall in the fear gauge is actually a sign of more gains ahead. In fact, you can expect double-digit gains in the S&P 500 Index over the next year, based on what’s happening right now.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth


In March, the market’s “fear gauge” hit its highest level since 2008.

That was during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. The market was crashing. And folks were terrified.

Today, fear in the market has subsided as stocks close in on new highs. It’s more than that, though…

This fall in the fear gauge is actually a sign of more gains ahead. In fact, you can expect double-digit gains in the S&P 500 Index over the next year, based on what’s happening right now.

Let me explain…


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Longtime readers know that when I refer to the market’s “fear gauge,” I’m talking about the CBOE Volatility Index (“VIX”).

When uncertainty shows up in the market, people get scared… and the VIX starts to move higher. It can be a great contrarian indicator, showing when folks are giving up on stocks.

Now, we know we want to buy after folks get scared. But remember, uncertainty can always drive the VIX higher than you can imagine.

So instead of just looking at when the VIX hits new highs, we want to see what happens when that fear starts to dissipate.

Again, the VIX spiked in March as pandemic fears took over. But it has fallen recently. While this measure peaked above 80, it’s now below 35 again.

To see what happens when fear subsides, you need to look at every time that the VIX rose above and fell back below a level of 35… like we saw recently. These spikes highlight fear extremes and let us know when things are getting back to normal.

Now that there’s less coronavirus uncertainty in the market, the VIX is back down. Take a look…

You can see the massive spike in the VIX in March. But levels have fallen dramatically since then.

Historically, when the VIX falls back from record highs, it’s a good sign for U.S. stocks. And that means now is actually a great time to buy.

Since 1990, we’ve seen 41 other times that the VIX has rallied above and fallen back below 35. And buying after these extremes often leads to outperformance…

Similar extremes have led to winning trades 82% of the time over the next year. And history shows you can expect solid outperformance compared with a buy-and-hold strategy…

Previous instances have led to 6% gains in six months and a solid 12% gain over the next year. That crushes the typical 7% annual return.

Simply put, the VIX falling back to more normal levels is an “all clear” sign to own stocks, based on history. And that’s happening right now.

It might seem crazy, but now is a fantastic time to buy. History says more gains are likely on the way.

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Big Gains for Contrarian Investors?

The pessimism we’re seeing now tells me the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index are headed higher. If so, it’ll mean big gains for contrarian investors – and big losses for those caught on the short end of the trade.

Editor’s note: Did you miss it? Earlier this week, Steve held an online event to share why real estate is booming today. He says right now – in the wake of a global pandemic – we’re getting a “perfect storm” for Americans to invest in this lucrative asset class. And it’s time to act…

His brand-new project is an easy way to do it through the stock market. You’ll even have the option to get in on private real estate deals – something we’ve never been able to facilitate before. And for a short time, you can join us as a Charter Member for 66% off the normal price. So don’t wait… Watch a replay of the event to learn more.


By C. Scott Garliss, editor, Stansberry NewsWire

You should always be a little scared of consensus…

When everyone’s on the same side of a trade, it typically goes against them.

The reason for this is simple: If everyone’s bullish on an idea at the same time, who’s left to buy and push it higher?

The only momentum that’s coming is likely to be lower. And the opposite is true, too…

Investors today are betting that the market will fall. They’re piling into the same shorts. And as the downside bet increases, a market rally becomes that much more likely.

The pessimism we’re seeing now tells me the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite Index are headed higher. If so, it’ll mean big gains for contrarian investors – and big losses for those caught on the short end of the trade.

Let me explain…


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Short-selling may seem complicated at first. But it’s actually very simple.

To short an investment, you sell it up front, knowing you’ll have to buy it back at a later date. The trick is that you hope to buy it back at a lower price.

If you “sell high and buy low,” you make money on the trade. You’re betting the price will fall.

It’s the reverse of a typical “long” investment – where you buy expecting that the stock will go higher. But there’s another key difference many investors don’t think about…

When a long investment goes against you, your losses are limited. A stock can only fall to zero – it can’t go any lower. But there’s no limit to how high a stock can soar. So when a short investment goes against you, your downside is infinite.

Right now, investors are overwhelmingly bearish on stocks. To see it, let’s look at the most recent Commitment of Traders report…

This is a weekly report produced by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. It shows us what futures traders are doing with their money.

According to the data, the net short position for the S&P 500 is the largest it has been since 2011. Take a look at the chart below…

Now let’s look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Here, the net short position is the largest on record…

You get the idea. And it’s a similar story with the Nasdaq, too. The net short position increased last week to 1,800 contracts – the largest amount of short interest since 2011.

All this means one thing…

If the stock market keeps going up, all these short traders will need to get out. They’ll need to cover their positions and buy them back.

Typically, that doesn’t happen until it’s too late. At that point, it will be like trying to put out a fire with lighter fluid. Prices could absolutely soar as traders scramble to buy and close their positions.

Importantly, this isn’t the only sign that the market’s pessimism has gone overboard…


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We can also see it in the recent survey from the American Association for Individual Investors (“AAII”). This poll asks investors where they think the stock market is headed over the next six months. It’s simple – they’re either bullish, bearish, or neutral.

According to the most recent report, 48.9% of respondents were bearish. That’s well above the historical average of 30.5%.

On the other side, bullish sentiment came in at just 24.1%, well below its historical average. This shows individual investors are still scared of the market. They’re not prepared for a move higher.

Bearish investors stand to lose a lot of money when this situation reverses. But you don’t have to be one of them…

As investing legend Warren Buffett likes to say, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”

Today, investors have too much money riding on a move lower. We’re likely to see the opposite. And that tells me it’s time to be greedy.

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Teeka Tiwari: My Disturbing Wall Street Discovery

Teeka Tiwari: At the beginning of the second quarter of this year, I noticed a string of strange anomalies in my trading data. The trading action was so far off the norm, I knew there had to be a flaw somewhere in my data collection.

By Teeka Tiwari, editor,  Palm Beach Daily

Sometimes, a $1.4 billion fine is just the price of doing business.

For most companies, it’d be a death blow. But for Wall Street bankers, it’s barely a slap on the wrist.

Let me explain…

After decades of bad behavior, Wall Street’s misconduct truly got out of hand during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. It was so bad, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched one of the biggest investigations in its history.

In 2003, the SEC hit Wall Street and 10 of its biggest bankers with a $1.4 billion fine.

In one example, analysts from Credit Suisse published false reports on Digital Impact, an early dot-com marketing company. Undisclosed to the public, bankers at Credit Suisse held a stake in the company.

Likely, millions of dollars flowed into Digital Impact’s stock thanks to favorable ratings. All the while boosting the value of Credit Suisse’s stake in the company.

In 2000, the 10 firms charged had made over $213 billion… That’s in just one year.


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Put together the decades of unchecked abuse, and the $1.4 billion “fine” becomes meaningless in comparison.

But all of that is old news now.

The reason I’m writing to you today is because Wall Street is yet again up to its old tricks of feeding off the savings of America…

My Disturbing Discovery

At the beginning of the second quarter of this year, I noticed a string of strange anomalies in my trading data.

Data that had been working for years suddenly went “wonky.” Trades built on sound methods and data started failing.

The trading action was so far off the norm, I knew there had to be a flaw somewhere in my data collection.

That’s when my team and I started a three-month journey to get to the bottom of what was happening to the data feeds my subscribers and I rely on.

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Big Wall Street firms, hedge fund managers, and big-money men of every ilk were making public statements that had the effect of changing the data we see on our charts.

At the same time, they were relying on a different way to “hide” their activity (much of which was opposite to their stated positions), that it never showed up in the charts you and I rely on.

These aren’t trades you’ll see on the New York Stock Exchange ticker tape. They don’t show up on volume charts. And you’ll never have the chance to get in on them.

In fact, our research suggests 40% of all trading will never show up on the public charts.

No wonder my performance was lagging. The good news is, once I factored this data in, our trading results improved dramatically.


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We could see the S&P 500 Index rally double digits over the next year

Stocks rallied more than 10% in April alone. A one-month move like that hasn’t happened since 2011. It turns out, these rare moves have been extremely bullish over the last 70 years. 

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

It has been a violent ride…

First, we experienced the fastest bear market ever in U.S. stocks. And now, the rally has been just as aggressive.

This kind of whiplash has a lot of folks confused. Even for the investing pros, it’s tough to get a read on what’s next for stocks.

Could the next sharp fall be right around the corner? Or will this market keep heading higher?

Fortunately, recent market action gives us a little insight on how to answer those questions.

You see, stocks rallied more than 10% in April alone. A one-month move like that hasn’t happened since 2011. And it has only happened a handful of times going back to 1950.

It turns out, these rare moves have been extremely bullish over the last 70 years. We could see the S&P 500 Index rally double digits over the next year.

Let me explain…


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U.S. stocks haven’t looked back since bottoming on March 23. The S&P 500 is up 36% since then.

Rumors of an intensifying trade war and the constant onslaught of coronavirus news could have stopped the rally. But they’ve failed. History now shows us that today’s upward move still has room to run.

Stocks rose again in May, jumping more than 3%. But as the chart shows, the stronger move from stocks was in April. And history tells us how rare it was, too.

A move of 10% or more in a month has happened just 12 times since 1950. And that includes this recent instance. This kind of momentum often leads to more upside as well…

Nine of the previous 11 extremes led to further gains in the S&P 500 over the next year. And it can mean significant outperformance. Check it out…

The broad market has returned nearly 8% a year since 1950. That’s impressive. But buying after moves like this can lead to much better results…

Similar instances have led to 4% gains in three months, 11% gains in six months, and an impressive 12% gain over the next year.

Simply put, buying after a move like we saw in April can turn a boring 7.6% gain into a solid double-digit win over the next year.


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The market seems tough to gauge right now. First the major crash… then the major rally. But history points to more gains from here.

The S&P 500’s jarring rally is likely to continue. Make sure you’re on board.