Tag: Bullseye Trades Scam

It’s pretty remarkable to think that just a few short weeks ago traders thought we were setting up for a market crash… we were losing the China trade war…and the bond market signaled the U.S. economy was headed for a recession.

But guess what?

The stock market is back to all-time high levels.

So what exactly changed over the last few weeks… and what can we expect next?

Europe making moves

Well, we’ve already seen the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate — pushing it further into negative territory to support the economy. Not only that, but it relaunched its bond-buying program.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet this week, many traders are wondering what the Fed will do.

Will they move in lock-step with the ECB and cut interest rates to satisfy traders and support the economy?

Or does Fed Chair Jerome Powell and gang still believe the economy is in “a good place”?

Riddle me this?

The Fed is expected to cut rates this week. And the U.S. stock market is near all-time highs.

Typically, rate cuts are done to stimulate a slumping market.

Except this market is running hot.

The best thing to do now is to remain patient and wait to see what the Fed says…I do believe this meeting will be market-moving event.

Do we blast through all-time highs or do stocks take a dive like they did in August?

Either way… I’ll be diving into my grab-bag of trading strategies to pull profits from the options market.

This week’s edition of The Jump includes my favorite trade setups and charts, in-depth coverage on the upcoming Fed announcement, as well as economic catalysts, upcoming corporate earnings, and the IPO calendar.

Do We Have A Slowdown?

Since the end of The Great Recession — just about a decade ago — the market has continued to grow in both revenues and earnings.

Wall Street analysts are now forecasting revenue and earnings to grow at a rapid pace into 2020.

Sure, Wall Street analysts are eternal optimists because it’s bad business for them to indicate slowing revenue and earnings growth. Basically, they’re incentivized to stay overly bullish on the market…

… and if you just look back to 2008… they were forecasting growth, as they watched the market plummet.

But that all traces back to the central banks.

Do we actually trust the central banks to make the right decisions? They’re dogmatic in their mandates to a fault.

Think about when congress questioned Fed Chair Jerome Powell about returning to the gold standard, back in July…

“If you assigned us [to] stabilize the dollar price of gold, monetary policy could do that, but the other things would fluctuate, and we wouldn’t care” – Jerome Powell. July 10th, 2019.

It’s quite clear the Fed is very opinionated and shouldn’t get swayed by what the overall market is doing.

However, when traders are expecting the Fed to cut rates in its upcoming monetary policy meeting… you’ve got to think that Powell and company will try everything in their power so they don’t spook the market, as we saw in the Fed’s last rate cut decision.

Source: CME Group

What to Expect in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Meeting

Traders are pricing in around an 80% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates by another 0.25% — and leave the door open for further rate cuts.

However, the Fed is in a bit of a spin cycle right now that’s got them in a daze.

The Fed has been trying to figure out when to end the cycle of rate cuts…

… and that either ends when the Fed buoys economic growth by cutting interest rates further…

… or the economy actually falls into a recessionary period and the Fed slashes rates and moves towards a 0% interest rate policy.

There isn’t much else the Fed can do… and we’ll be getting some major clues in the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday.

So far, we’ve heard Powell note that the economy is still strong and in a good place… but there are still uncertainties stemming from slower global growth projections and trade wars.

It’s a zero-sum game for the Fed… and the only way to “win” might be to follow through with actual rate cuts… otherwise, it may unwind everything they’ve done to counteract all the growing risks on the table.

So, you have most major central banks outside the U.S. cutting rates to 0% or lower. The Fed is expected to cut rates. And the chart of the SPY looks like this:

Can the market keep going higher despite everything?

Sure.

You have money flying into equities right from the central banks. Even with central banks actively driving up bond prices, can we trust that’s where the smart money is going?

This chart doesn’t exactly look sustainable.

The interesting thing to note is that many traders are pricing in a rate cut… but we’ve seen the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) actually pull back, and it looks like it’s setting up for a bearish crossover… which can send shockwaves throughout the entire market.

How to Trade in This Wacky Environment

Here’s the rub… there are way too signs that the market can pull back and potentially crash from these levels. Consider all of the following:

1. Gold prices have been soaring
2. Bonds are still trending higher
3. Central banks continue to cut rates
4. The dollar keeps inching higher despite Fed rate cuts
5. The S&P P/E multiple sits at 22.4x
6. Tariff wars continue to ratchet up
7. Most major market outside the U.S. is in bear market territory

I can’t look at all these facts with a straight face and say, the market deserves new highs.

It may not happen tomorrow… but one has to believe the market can’t continue making highs without corrections along the way.

However, right now, I’m remaining patient with my market plays and focused primarily on stock-specific setups.

For the most part, I’m placing strategic options bets and focused on my charts.

For example, I opened a call spread position in Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) as a quick trade against the chart resistance.

Some other trades I’m looking to play include:

Call spreads

NFLX, FB, DE, IWM, ROKU, AMZN, NKE, FDX, TLT

Put spreads

FIVE, TWLO, BYND, TWTR, DIS, NOW, YETI, STNE, WYNN, RACE, WWE, W, CVNA, PLNT

Now, let’s take a look at some economic catalysts on the calendar.

Economic Calendar

Monday, September 16

• 8:30 AM EST               Empire Manufacturing

 

Tuesday, September 17

• 7:45 AM EST               ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

• 8:55 AM EST               Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

• 9:15 AM EST               Industrial Production

• 9:15 AM EST               Capacity Utilization

• 10:00 AM EST             NAHB Housing Market Index

• 4:00 PM EST               Net Long-term TIC flows

• 4:30 PM EST               API Weekly Inventory Data

 

Wednesday, September 18

• 7:00 AM EST               MBA Mortgage Applications Data

• 8:30 AM EST               Building Permits

• 8:30 AM EST               Housing Starts

• 10:30 AM EST             Weekly DOE Inventory Data

• 2:00 PM EST               FOMC Rate Decision on Interest Rates

• FOMC Rate Decision on Interest Rates at 2:00 PM EST with press conference at 2:30 PM

• Facebook, Twitter and Google to testify before the Senate

 

Thursday, September 19

• 8:30 AM EST               Weekly Jobless Claims

• 8:30 AM EST               Continuing Claims

• 8:30 AM EST               Philly Fed Survey Outlook

• 10:00 AM EST             Existing Home Sales

• 10:00 AM EST             Leading Index for August

• 10:30 AM EST             Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

 

Friday, September 20

• 11:20 AM EST             Fed’s Rosengren speaks in New York

• 12:00 PM EST             Household Change in Net Worth for Q2

• 1:00 PM EST               Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

 

We’ve got a relatively light earnings calendar this week, but earnings season is right around the corner… and it makes sense to gear up for it by watching some of these stocks.

Now, on the IPO front… we’ve got a couple of stocks set to go public this week.

IPO Calendar

• Datadog (DDOG) 24M share IPO expected to price between $19-$22

• Envista Holding (NVST) 26.768M share IPO expected to price between $21-$24

• Exagen Inc. (XGN) 3.33M share IPO expected to price between $14-$16

• IGM Biosciences (IGMS) 7.812M share IPO expected to price between $15-$17

• Ping Identity Holding (PING) 12.5M share IPO expected to price between $14-$16

Trading IPOs is one of the ways to avoid getting roped into trading the market… and they can provide some lucrative opportunities… if you have the right system.

That’s why Jason Bond and I sat down with IPO expert — Ben Sturgill — to discuss the life cycle of an IPO and how to spot three simple patterns to uncover massive opportunities.

If you missed it, make sure to watch the replay before Monday so you know how to prepare for all the stocks set to go public this week.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

You can’t keep a good market down… and despite everything that has been thrown at it… all-time highs are here again…

Not too shabby when you consider all this stuff going on:

• The European Central Bank (ECB) launched a major stimulus package and cut its interest rates, which should have an impact on assets tied to rates (like gold and silver)

• The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is next week — and traders are pricing in an 88.8% chance of a 0.25% rate cut.

• Leading nations are weakening their currencies against the U.S. dollar, which is set to have several implications on global imports and exports.

However, there is a simple way for you to profit from all the uncertainty… and I’m going to pinpoint to you how to do it…

But first, I want to share with you an important chart.

Take a glimpse at an hourly chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

For the last few weeks, I’ve referenced $294 in the SPY as a key resistance level and the Death Line at $282… and how those levels would be decide the next trend in the stock market.

Well, we saw a massive break out and SPY is on its march to all-time highs.

However, with so much confusion surrounding the global economy, trade, interest rates and the strengthening of the dollar — I don’t believe this massive run-up is sustainable over the long term

The U.S. Dollar and stocks shouldn’t behave like this…

Just take a look at the long-term chart in the U.S. Dollar.

Right now, the U.S. Dollar Index is approaching a key breakout level of 100…

Why is it important?

Well, generally speaking, when the dollar strengthens… the U.S. stock market performs poorly.

However, that is not the case at the moment…

In the past, we’ve seen stock market corrections when the dollar has surged like it is currently.

But that’s not the only thing that is off with the present stock market rally…

The bond market is acting kooky ahead of a potential rate cut

Just take a look at the hourly chart in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) — an ETF that tracks long-term bonds.

We saw TLT fail to break out from a key resistance level of $148 — the upper blue horizontal line… and collapse shortly after.

Think about it…

And while the buyers of bonds have been relentless over the last few months…it appears like that trend is now shifting.

What’s more concerning?

Traders are pricing in a high chance for a rate cut next week… but based on how bonds and interest rates move, the price action at the moment isn’t making much sense.

Think about it… if rates are going lower, that’s great for bond prices and the market should be pricing this in.

It almost seems as if traders are being reactive right now… after they saw the 2-year and 10-year spread break back above the all-important 0 line.

Source: Federal Reserve

When traders are acting in this fashion… it’s like the blind leading the blind — just buying and selling with no real reason.

With that being said, I actually placed a short-term put spread trade in TLT. More specifically, I sold a put spread, betting that TLT will bounce very soon. 

The Bulletproof Strategy for A Broken Market

When the market zigs… I zag.

In other words, I look for stocks that don’t necessarily move in the same direction as the overall market.

How do I do that?

1. Be stock specific
2. Focus on charts
3. Pay attention to price action and volume

For example, I look for relative strength. If stocks are weak, I’m looking to buy strong stocks that are outperforming.

When a stock is weak, I will place bearish bets on it, regardless if the overall market trend is up.

That’s what my Bullseye Trade is all about — spotting and profiting off stocks that are doing their own thing.

Check out the hourly chart in Twitter Inc. (TWTR) — my most recent Bullseye winner.

Compare that chart to the SPY over the same period.

You can clearly see that TWTR was much stronger than the overall market and had a bullish pattern.

On the other hand, SPY was pulling back from a key resistance level at $294 (the blue horizontal line and was still in a downtrend.

With such a strong stock in relation to the overall market, I purchased call options in TWTR and played for the breakout…

I relied on the price action and the stock chart and not my bias on the market to jump in on this trade.

Just a few days later… I locked in a $4,200 winner on that TWTR trade!

Here’s a look at another recent Bullseye Trade…

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) was a recent IPO, and of course, it was moving opposite with the overall market.

With the ZM trade, I was just playing against the support and resistance (the blue lines in the chart above).

The lower blue horizontal line is the support level, while the upper blue line is the resistance level.

I figured the $90 level would hold and ZM would rally back to $95 ahead of its earnings…

… when it got close to $95…  I decided to take profits, especially since the company was set to release earnings data in two days (it’s really risky to hold directional options positions into a volatile event like that).

When the market appears disconnected from reality don’t get frustrated.

The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Instead of fighting the trend, focus on stocks by being trade specific.

Also, rely on charts and price action and not your bias (what you think should happen).

So far, my Bullseye Trades have been ALL winners… and it’s proven to work when the market is crashing (like we saw in August)… choppy… or disconnected like we’re seeing now.

The Federal Reserve Bank officials are gearing up for an upcoming meeting that is set to have heavy implications on the bond and stock market—a week from now.

However, as we all know — with the Fed — you don’t have to wait for its all-important interest rate announcement to make substantial profits off its actions.

In fact, many of the best trading opportunities occur days before…

(Want to take advantage of the Fed announcements? Simplify your trading with Total Alpha)

While there are plenty of traders speculating on what the Fed will do…  yields have been pushed down substantially — and many experts are predicting a Fed rate cut.

Furthermore, the market is pricing a 93.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.50% in next week’s meeting.

Source: CME Group

However, if you think about it… when traders are flocking to safe havens like gold, silver, and bonds… it pushes the Fed against the fence… limiting their strategic options.

As Peter Navarro — White House trade advisor — said, “The problem here, the thing that worries me is that we’ve got a Federal Reserve playing checkers in a chess world.”

That’s true to an extent… because we know the Fed is data-dependent and are naturally behind because they have to wait for clues.

On the other hand, us traders, are forward-looking and are able to adapt to news in real-time.

The Fed plays a different game than we do… and it’s troubling.

You see, when you investigate the clues, you’ll come across some scary signals that could lead to a potential stock market crash.

For traders… that means…countless trading opportunities.

Why?

Because traders thrive off volatility.

Right now, we’re noticing plenty of disconnects in the market… and with the Fed monetary policy meeting scheduled next week, there are a few clues as to how Powell and company will act — and what its impact on the market will be.

Everyone Expects A Crash… But No One is Prepared

If you know me, I’m a contrarian by nature. I don’t see any value in following the herd… because I know that sheep get led to the seller.

When everyone and their mother is buying the dip… I want to position myself and look for shorts. When everyone is selling… I want to be buying.

However, what happens when everyone has the same view as you?

The inevitable happens.

Things get a little twisted here… because we’ve seen all the data points signaling a potential market crash…

… and when everyone expects it and things hit the fan… then you’ll see many market participants panic and look for the exit doors… dumping all their shares and sending stocks lower.

Just take a look at the daily chart in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

We’re seeing so many signals of a weak economy… but the market is closing in on all-time highs — but it’s approaching a key psychological level at $300… and shorts could pile in around there.

That seems like a pretty disconnected market to me.

The thing is… we know the Fed can change all this with one swift move and put traders in check.

Right now, we’re seeing yields slide… but bond traders will be very reactive to every single word that comes out of Powell’s mouth next week, as well as any comments that come out before next Wednesday.

That means there will be opportunities in some bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — TLT to be exact… which has been ballooning over the last few months.

Just take a look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield.

Source: Federal Reserve

We haven’t seen yields at these levels since the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

We’ve seen so many traders flock to bonds in order to protect their portfolios… and that’s pushed yields a lot lower.

Just take a look at this massive runup in TLT over the past 6 months.

Those are signals that traders expect a decline in the market.

What they don’t expect is a crash, just based on the recent price action.

Everyone’s positioned in bonds. At some point, traders will take profits and that safe-haven bubble will burst.

I don’t know any trader out there who looks at the 10-Year Treasury yield and TLT — thinking those moves are sustainable.

Sure, most could see yields doubling from here.

But what happens if we see funds get pulled from bonds?

Due to the inverse relationship of bonds and yields — when bond prices rise, yields drop… vice versa — it’s not crazy to think that traders would take profits at these levels and look to other safe havens, which would throw a barrage of needles at the bubble.

I don’t think the market could handle that right now… and that could spark a crash.

With this sort of action in the bond market… you better believe the Fed will mention inflation and the state of the economy.

So what can we expect in this Fed meeting?

The Federal Reserve is Shook

The Federal Reserve is worried about inflation… and they will most likely talk about where inflation levels could head next.

Any dovish tone about inflation should send the market higher… as well as bonds because that’s the market we’re in now.

Bad news is good news… and good news is bad news.

Just take a look at where expected inflation is at…

Source: Bloomberg

Expected inflation one year ahead plummeted to 2.4% — the lowest level since 2013.

You better believe Powell & Co. will be focused on inflation expectations because that’s a key driver in the economy.

We’ve already seen Fed officials cut interest rates — back in July, for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis… and you know what the reason was?

Low inflation… slowing global growth… and the trade war.

Right now, we’re seeing that same pattern…

… trade war uncertainty has caused concerns about global trade to hit 10 times its peaks in the previous decades… and it could damage global growth by 0.75%.

With that being said, traders are expecting the Fed to deliver yet another rate cut after it’s all said and done next week.

However, on the off chance, Fed officials don’t cut rates and indicate that inflation should pick back up… the markets will be sent into a frenzy, and you could see a pullback in SPY, TLT, as well as GLD (the gold-tracking ETF) and the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) — the tech tracking ETF.

I’m seeing some interesting price action in these ETFs, and I’ll be ready to pounce when I see a clear pattern.

Take a look at the hourly chart in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

We actually saw a bearish pattern in TLT the other day — the blue line crossing below the red line in the encircled area — causing the bond ETF to pull into a key inflection point at the blue horizontal line.

TLT is sitting right at the 200-hourly simple moving average (the green line)… and this will be a key level I’m focused on all week.

The reason this is so interesting is the fact that traders are pricing in a 93.5% chance of a rate cut… and we’re actually seeing bonds pull back, when they should be grinding higher.

The same idea with GLD.

It’s also at a key inflection point right around $141… and sitting at the 200-hourly SMA. If we see a break below ahead of the Fed — there will be multiple ways to profit in both GLD and TLT.

When we look at the overall market… we’re seeing some really weird action.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was on its march to all-time highs… but my money pattern seems to be flashing a sell signal right now — blue line looks like it could cross below the red line.

If I do see that pattern materialize, I’ll be ready to place a strategic options bet in SPY.

With QQQ, I actually jumped the gun a bit… because tech stocks are the most susceptible to plummeting fast… and we saw that yesterday morning.

With this setup, I saw the money pattern set up, as the blue line was approaching the red line fast — a signal that QQQ could head lower. Now, I placed a strategic options bet on Monday… and have already seen QQQ have a “massive” move.

All eyes will be on the Fed for the next couple of days… and there are so many trading opportunities out there that sometimes, it gets hard to find the best one.

However, I’ve actually simplified trading for everyone and developed Bullseye Trade. It’s my highest-conviction trade idea — it’s all about 1 trade, once a week and I’m looking to return at least 100% on these trades.

If you’re having trouble figuring out what to do with the Fed… then check out Bullseye Trade and see how it can make trading easier and more profitable for you.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

Well, the talking heads are one step behind… yet again. The market is on its march to all-time highs, but we’re still hearing talks of recession.

However, we’ve already heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplay those talks of the U.S. and the rest of the world heading for a recession — sending stocks higher on Friday.

Not only that, but with a mixed September’s jobs report, the Fed may be looking to cut interest rates this month… something traders have been looking for.

This is something I expected and let my clients know about. We’ve simply taken a lot of the directional risk out of the markets, and the thing is… you can still make money without ever touching the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Right now, I’m going to be patient and wait for all the news to flesh out before placing a directional bet on the market… because as we all know, when everyone behaves like sheep — they get led to the slaughter.

However, that doesn’t mean I won’t be stalking stocks for opportunities… because there are plenty I’m seeing pop up like moles and I’ll be ready to whack em’ every chance I get.

For the most part, I’m going to be sticking with my charts, and I do see some setups in a few names right now — like some recent IPOs, and stocks that aren’t moving in tandem with the market now — NFLX, FB, CGC, TWLO to name a few.

With that being said, this week’s edition of Jump includes some of my favorite setups and charts I’m watching currently, as well as economic catalysts, and corporate earnings and IPO calendars.

The Best Way to Make Money in the Market? Trade Uncorrelated Stocks

With the market acting the way it has… I’ve actually been looking to stocks that haven’t been moving with the market — ones that are uncorrelated to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

So how do you spot these opportunities?

It’s actually really simple.

All I really do is compare the charts of some stocks on my watchlist to the SPY chart.

For example, take a look at this hourly chart on Twitter Inc. (TWTR).

Now, compare that to the hourly chart in SPY over the same period.

As you can see, TWTR has actually been trending higher and trading above the 200-hourly simple moving average (SMA). On the other hand, SPY was just bouncing around between two levels (the support area at $282 and the resistance at $292).

Just by spotting that chart setup in TWTR… I was able to add to my winning streak with my Bullseye Trade — all of them have been winners so far!

But I haven’t been the only one taking advantage of these setups… in fact, many of my clients have been pulling in some massive winners.

That’s pretty much what I’ll be doing for many of my plays. For example, I’m keeping a close eye on Netflix (NFLX) and will place a strategic bet once I see my pattern come up.

Companies like NFLX may have once traded in tandem with the markets. Now, outside of short squeezes, the stock and its story are broken.

When you compare NFLX to the SPY or QQQ, the charts look nothing alike. Sure they can trade together for multiple days in a row. But the overall trend in NFLX is lower.

Just take a look at QQQ — the tech tracking ETF — over the same period that NFLX has been plummeting.

Those two charts look nothing alike.

For me, I will be using chart patterns and resistance levels, and I’m confident selling call spreads in stocks exhibiting this pattern, even when the market itself is bullish.

Some call spreads I’m watching include:

FB, DE, IWM, ROKUE, NKE, FDX, TLT and AMZN

For put spreads, I’m keeping an eye on:

FIVE, CGC, TWLO, BYND, DIS, NOW, YETI, WYNN, SQ

Sizzling Opportunities in IPOs

I’ll also be keeping an eye on some recent IPOs as well.

You see, with IPOs they don’t trade with the market… they move to the beat of their own drum — that’s the perfect solution when you’re having trouble finding opportunities in the market.

I actually stumbled upon a brand-new IPO trading system developed by Ben Sturgill. If you don’t know who Ben is… I actually sat down with him recently as he interviewed me on the WealthWise Podcast.

It’s something we’ve never revealed before… and here’s a taste of how he trades IPOs.

Just take a look at the daily chart in InMode (INMD).

This is a big way that Ben trades IPO breakouts. He showed me this INMD chart… and even though I wasn’t watching it on IPO day… I’ll be keeping this stock on my radar because it’s not moving with the market whatsoever.

However, I don’t know all the ins-and-outs of his system… but Jason Bond and I will be sitting down with Ben Sturgill on Thursday, Sept. 12 at 8:30 PM EST — as he reveals how he finds EXPLOSIVE opportunities in IPOs every single week…

… with the IPO market heating up, this is going to be one strategy to add to your toolkit.

Some other recent IPOs I’m watching currently are CRWD, ZM, INMD, LK and GO— and I’ll get with you tomorrow about those setups.

The reason why I’m looking to other areas to make money is due to the fact that there are so many different catalysts that could move the market… and when we look to the economic calendar —you’ll see some important indicators.

Not only that, we’ve got the Fed meeting later this month… and who knows what their decision will be.

Economic Calendar

Monday, September 9

• 3:00 PM EST               Consumer Credit for July

Tuesday, September 10

• 6:00 PM EST               NFIB Small Business Optimism for August

• 7:45 AM EST               ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

• 8:55 AM EST               Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

• 10:00 AM EST             JOLTs Job openings for July

• 4:30 PM EST               API Weekly Inventory Data

Wednesday, September 11

• 7:00 AM EST               MBA Mortgage Applications Data

• 8:30 AM EST               Producer Price Index (PPI)

• 10:00 AM EST             Wholesale Inventories

• 10:30 AM EST             Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Thursday, September 12

• 8:30 AM EST               Weekly Jobless Claims

• 8:30 AM EST               Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• 10:30 AM EST             Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

• 2:00 PM EST               Monthly Budget Statement for August

Friday, September 13

• 8:30 AM EST               Import & Export Price

• 8:30 AM EST               Retail Sales

• 10:00 AM EST             University of Michigan Confidence

• 10:00 AM EST             Business Inventories

• 1:00 PM EST               Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

Other Key Events:

• Apple (AAPL) product event announcements (September 10)

• Democratic debate (3rd one) in Houston (September 12)

• 2019 World Conference on Lung Cancer, 9/7-9/10 in Barcelona, Spain

• Barclay’s Global Financial Services Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York

• Credit Suisse 32nd Annual Basic Materials Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York

• Deutsche Bank Technology Conference, 9/10-9/11, in Las Vegas

• HC Wainwright Healthcare Conference, 9/9-9/10, in New York

• Morgan Stanley 17th Annual Healthcare Conference, 9/9-9/11, in New York

Now, here’s a look at the upcoming earnings calendar — it’s going to be relatively light until earnings season picks back up in October.

We’ve got a couple of IPOs this week… and there’s one person I’m going to turn to and find the hottest ones — Ben Sturgill and his IPO Payday System.

IPO Calendar

• 10X Genomics Inc. (TXG) 9M share IPO expected to prices between $31-$35 per share

• Alerus Financial 3.25M share IPO expected to price between $22-$24 per share

• Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) 35M share IPO expected to price between $10-$12 per share

• Satsuma Pharmaceuticals (STSA) 5M share IPO expected to price between $14-$16 per share

• SmileDirectClub, Inc. (SDC) 58.53M share IPO expected to price between $19-$22 per share

• SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX) 7.35M share IPO expected to price between $16-$18 per share

There’s going to be a lot of opportunities out there this week… ones that don’t move with the market, and I’m putting my focus on those until further notice.

Right now, I think IPOs are going to be filled with a lot of moneymaking opportunities… and that’s why Jason Bond and I are sitting down with Ben Sturgill to hear what he has to say about his IPO Payday System.

It all goes down Thursday, Sept. 12 at 8:30 PM EST… and if you had plans of watching the Democratic debate, I’d suggest you skip that, otherwise, you’re going to miss out on a potentially life-changing opportunity.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

It’s an extended holiday weekend, but come Tuesday… Wall Street’s bigger plays return from vacation and get back in the saddle…

With so many traders chasing alpha… it means things can even whackier.

Market volatility has taken a toll on a lot of traders already… but the last stretch of 2019 looks no different…

Currently, there are several catalysts on the table that can potentially pop off and send volatility through the roof.

… we still don’t have a trade deal – and U.S. tariffs have already hit Chinese goods at 12:00 AM today… U.S. presidential election on the way, interest rates signaling a potential recession, the Fed, and so many more landmines all over the place.

So how can you adapt in a way that allows you to profit in this environment?

It’s simple really…

All you have to do is focus on what the charts are saying and only trade your best setups… also, shortening your holding period can help (don’t be scared to take profits quickly or cut losers right away).

That’s exactly what I’ve been doing with my Bullseye Trades. It’s my one trade a week –  highest-conviction idea – that I aim for triple digit returns (or better).

And so far, it’s been working really well.

(Having a hard time navigating through this market volatility? Simplify your trading with Bullseye Trade – my best trade idea delivered to you once a week. Since the launch, every single alert has been a monster winner. And I couldn’t be happier. Join now)

Heck, I haven’t a single loser yet…

And you know what else?

I’m going to be sticking to my guns and focusing on the strategies that can generate massive returns like the one you see below… regardless if the trend is up, down, or sideways…

and if the market decides to tank… you better believe I’ll have a way to play it.

But despite my bearish bias… I won’t let my ego dictate my trades… and if the charts are screaming a buy… I won’t hesitate putting on bullish bets either… like this one:

If you know me, I also focus on the macro view, and even though sentiment hasn’t always been the easiest to read… I’m now seeing a clearer picture, and feel a real good sense on where stocks are headed next.

With that being said, it’s charts-galore in this edition of The Jump – and I’ll be going through with you my favorite setups, as well as my top macro ideas, the economic catalysts I’m watching, and some surprises too…

Can History Repeat Itself?

Before we get into what I’m watching over the short term, I’d really like to take a moment to give some perspective on where we are in history… because a lot of the times history repeats itself, and we’re seeing some similar action in the markets right now.

Check out this chart of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. the S&P 500 Dividend Yield.

Source: CNBC

We’re just seeing the S&P 500 dividend yield provide higher rates than the 30-Year Treasury yield…

… the last time this happened?

March 2009.

Yes, we’ve seen long-term bond prices skyrocket… but short-term yields currently offer more than their longer counterparts. Hence the inverted yield curve.

We’ve seen inverted yield curves signal recessions… and we could be due for that.

Right now, the 10-Year Treasury Yield is right near levels we haven’t seen since the aftermath of the Great Recession.

However, during the recession – the Fed was trying to stimulate the economy and bought bonds to do so… right now, we don’t have the same easy money policy… and the Fed may be running out of ways to continue the economic stimulation.

So how does this make sense?

It really doesn’t.

Considering the other yields around the world are negative, where would you park your money?

So, the question I am asking myself now is whether investors will forgo bonds for the stock yields?

In the short-term, we’ve seen and could continue to see an appetite for safe yield stocks. We’ve already seen this with utilities and consumer staples outperforming the broader market.

Here’s a look at the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU).

Here’s a look at the Consumer Staples Select sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Now, here’s a look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

When you see those two charts, you can see that clearly XLU and XLP have seen on a tear… while SPY has been all whipsawy.

Not only that, we’re seeing some moves in precious metals – something traders turn to when there’s heightened volatility.

Just take a look at this massive run that the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has had over the last 6 months.

Silver has also been on a tear…

… and we’re seeing platinum prices breakout now too.

So how am I going to adapt this environment?

Well, for the most part… it’s simple. I’m going to only be focused on my best ideas and keep my holding periods shorter… as well as, keep my crashing stocks strategy in my back pocket.

Right now, you can see that the positions I’m in currently have no more than a few trading weeks until expiration (I’m trading options).

Some names I’m watching currently are NFLX, FB, DE, IWM, ROKU, FIVE, BYND, DIS.

I’m going to be sticking to my charts and the money pattern.

Basically, once I see my charts telling me a stock could pop or drop… I put it on my watchlist and wait for my signal.

For example, here’s a look at Five Below Inc. (FIVE).

Sure, we saw FIVE gap up massively… but the money pattern is signaling FIVE could pull back. Not only that, we saw FIVE get into the gap up it had last week.

With that being said, I’m look at putting on a put spread if I do see a break below… and I’ll be sure to let my clients know when I’m getting in… just as I did with my massive FIVE winner just 2 weeks ago.

I’m pretty much going through the same process with all the stocks I’m watching.

Now, it’s time to look ahead and see what catalysts are on the table because they could give us clues as to where stocks can head.

Economic Calendar

Monday, September 2

• Markets closed

Tuesday, September 3

• 7:45 AM EST                   ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM EST                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 9:45 AM EST                   Markit US Manufacturing PMI
• 10:00 AM EST                 ISM Manufacturing
• 10:00 AM EST                 Construction Spending
• 4:30 PM EST                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Wednesday, September 4

• 7:00 AM EST                   MBA Mortgage Applications Data
• 8:30 AM EST                   Trade Balance for July
• 10:30 AM EST                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM EST                   Fed’s Beige Book released

Thursday, September 5

• 7:30 AM EST                   Challenger Job Cuts
• 8:15 AM EST                   ADP Employment Change
• 8:30 AM EST                   Nonfarm productivity
• 8:30 AM EST                   Unit Labor Costs
• 8:30 AM EST                   Weekly Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM EST                   Continuing Claims
• 9:45 AM EST                   Markit US Services PMI
• 9:45 AM EST                   Markit UC Composite PMI
• 10:00 AM EST                 Factory Orders
• 10:00 AM EST                 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
• 10:30 AM EST                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

Friday, September 6

• 8:30 AM EST                   Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
• 8:30 AM EST                   Change in Private Payrolls
• 8:30 AM EST                   Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
• 8:30 AM EST                   Unemployment Rate
• 8:30 AM EST                   Average Hourly Earnings
• 8:30 AM EST                   Average Weekly Hours
• 1:00 PM EST                   Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

Other Key Events:

• Baird 2019 Global Healthcare Conference, 9/4-9/5, in New York
• Barclay’s CEO Energy-Power Conference, 9/3-9/5, in New York
• Barclay’s Global Consumer Staples Conference, 9/3-9/5, in Boston, MA
• Citigroup 14th Annual Biotech Conference, 9/4-9/5, in Boston, MA
• Citigroup 2019 Global Technology Conference, 9/4-9/6, in New York
• Cowen 12th Annual Global Transportation Conference, 9/4-9/5, in Boston, MA
• DA Davidson 18th Annual Technology Conference, 9/4, in New York
• Deutsche Bank 9th annual Aircraft, Finance and Leasing Conference, 9/3-9.4, in New York
• Goldman Sachs 26th annual Global Retailing Conference, 9/4-9/5, in New York
• KBW Inc. Insurance Conference, 9/4-9/5, in New York
• Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, 9/4-9/5 in Boston, MA
• Fed’s Williams speaks in New York on Wednesday at 9:25 AM EST
• Fed’s Bullard and Bowman at event in St. Louis on Wednesday

We’ve got a relatively light earnings calendar… but there are still some names to keep an eye on this week.

With so many potential catalysts on the table that could spark even more volatility… now’s the time to lock in and focus on charts and clear signals.

What I’m going to do is stick with what’s working… and that’s my Bullseye Trade and  Total Alpha strategies.

They’ve proven they can work in choppy environments, and that tells me that when markets finds a direction… I can achieve even higher returns, especially if stocks start crashing.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

Well, the markets are trading higher today and rebounding from the August “sell-off”… and all seems to be fine in terms of macros… for now.

Treasury yields are rebounding – stymying fears of a possible recession… and the U.S. agreed to extend its temporary ban on doing business with Chinese telecom giant Huawei.

Not only that, Trump came out and said, “I don’t think we’re having a recession.”

But I’m not playing that he said, Xi said game.

I’m looking for actual data points that could affect the market… ways that can make me money in all this volatility.

You see, we still have some conflicting signals in the market right now… but we’ll get some clarity this week, as we will get the minutes from last month’s Fed meeting – when it cut rates for the first time in a decade.

Not only that, we’ve got the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium taking place Aug. 22 – 24.

We’ve seen Fed Chair Jerome Powell has moved markets before… and he could move them again this week.

All eyes will be on Powell this week, as he will speak for the first time since the bond markets were sent into a frenzy – sounding the recession siren – which spilled over to stocks.

So what am I looking for specifically in these Fed events and how can we take advantage?

All Eyes on Powell and The Fed

Sure, we’re getting a bounce in the market to kick off the week… but there is one man who can change it all – Powell.

First things first, we’ll get a recap of last month’s Fed meeting… and we should see some language clues that will let us know exactly where the market is headed. Either way, the market is headed, you can use this simple options strategy to potentially double your money, week after week.

We’re still seeing signs of economic strength. After all, inflation and retail sales picked up in July.

However, we’re still in the midst of the U.S. – China trade war… and even though there are signs of optimism, that can all change with a tweet from Trump, or comments from Xi.

With that being said, there is a lot of conflicting data… and that is one of the few reasons that caused all the back and forth action in the market.

The big questions now are how the Fed is going to adapt and what’s the monetary policy going to look like?

If you recall, Powell gave the market what it wanted last month… but it confused the market because the message was muddled. Powell didn’t give the markets too many clues about future rate cuts…

… after the initial pop, we saw markets convulse and sell off into the close on the Fed meeting day.

If you look at the hourly chart in SPY… it looks like the Fed actually sparked all this back and forth action.

Right now, I’m going to be looking closely at this chart, as we’ve got some key levels to watch. The $294 level is going to be a heavily-watched level. We’ve seen SPY try to break back above it three times already.

It’s quite clear the bears aren’t backing down here. I’ll be watching my money pattern and the $294 resistance level very closely, which will allow me to uncover opportunities in this back and forth market.

But where do we go from here?

The one thing that could actually make or break the market right now is the language changes in the Fed Minutes.

We saw a 25 basis point cut, upbeat sentiment about the economy, as well as a confusing press conference.

In the Fed meeting minutes, there are a few scenarios that could happen:

• The minutes show that the Fed is leaning more on the dovish side and looking for more rate cuts as an “insurance” policy for the Trade War risks
• The Fed remains prepared, but will wait for economic data points before they make any monetary policy moves
• The Federal Reserve shocks the market and uses a more hawkish tone – potentially causing the market to sell-off

Some specific language clues include:

• “Patient” – We’ve heard the Fed use this word a lot, and we’re going to see if it brings it back into play.
• “Transitory”
• “Is rising at a moderate rate” – We’ve seen the Fed change this a few times. For example, back in June, the Fed changed its language from “… the economic activity rose at a solid rate” to “… the economic activity is rising at a moderate rate”
• “Growth”
• “Have been soft”
• “Declined”
• “Uncertainties” or “risks” about the economic outlook
• “The Committee will monitor implications of incoming information”
• “Will act as appropriate”
• “Mid-cycle adjustment”

This is going to be one of the most important Fed minutes of the year because we will get more details as to how the Fed will make moves during the fourth quarter of 2019 into 2020.

Not only that, we’ve got the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and that is where Powell will speak on the economy, which can give us even more clues as to where rates are headed.

Right now, we’re seeing traders looking for a no-rate-change decision in the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting in September.

Traders are pricing in a 95% chance of no rate changes… and just 5% for a 0.25% basis point cut…

… and it seems like they’re all waiting for what Powell will say this Friday before they make any moves… because as we all know, anyone comment could change the direction of not only the interest rate and bond markets but the stock market as well.

So what can we expect in Powell’s speech?

Is Powell Going to Bend the Knee to the Market?

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will have a lot of material to pull out of his grab bag of topics. On Friday, there is going to a special speech on the challenges for monetary policy right now.

Of course, there are a lot of risks on the table… the Trade War which has sparked a deglobalization shock, low interest rates indicating a potential recession, a massive amount of global debt ($16.7T in negative-yielding bonds).

Not only that, we’ve got some geopolitical tensions going on throughout the world… something the Fed cannot influence whatsoever.

The market has been calling for lower interest rates… and the big question is whether Powell will bend the knee and fold to the market… and actually look for more and bigger rate cuts down the road.

However, it’s not a zero-sum game for the Fed… it’s a lose-lose situation.

If they cut rates when the economy is strong, everyone will know that the Fed has caved in to the pressure from Trump and the market.

On the other hand, if it doesn’t raise rates, it could actually cause the market to crash as traders have been pricing in rate cuts for quite some time now.

We really don’t know what Powell can say or do… but he will likely focus on the different monetary policies in different countries and how they can affect the overall market.

What I do know is that I’ll be looking closely for clues as to whether the Fed will reconsider its interest rate cuts as an “insurance” policy. I’ll also be looking for their comments on external risks… which can cause contagion risk and potentially spark a massive crash.

You’re probably wondering, Jeff, how are you going to play this?

I’m going to stick with my bread-and-butter… something that has worked for me when there are big Fed events.

With SPY, we’re really in no man’s land still. There is a big resistance level at $294… and until we get above that, there is still a risk of the market pulling back to the Death Line… and if Powell says anything “negative”, it could pull the market back to that level.

Not only that, I’ll be watching the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Right now, the money pattern is setting up in TLT, and I’ll be watching this very closely.

Why do I just stick to a few names when I’m looking to trade around the Fed?

It simplifies trading for me… and I’ve actually been successful trading these names.

(Want to simplify your trading and lock in winners like these? Bullseye Trades is my highest conviction trade idea delivered to you once a week. The goal is simple– return triple digits and try again next week. Since the launch, every single alert has been a monster winner. And I couldn’t be happier.)

With the Fed having two big events this week… all eyes will be on them this week, as it’ll give us clues as to where the market is headed. No matter what direction the market goes, I’ll be ready to use my alpha-generating strategies.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link