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Jeff Clark: Bad News for Bitcoin

It looks like the King of Crypto – Bitcoin is headed lower for the next few weeks.

By Jeff Clark – the editor of the Jeff Clark Trader

The price of Bitcoin is breaking down.

It’s been a few weeks since we last looked at the King of Cryptocurrencies. Back then, we noted how Bitcoin was approaching the apex of a large consolidating triangle pattern. It was headed for a BIG move one way or the other. But, we didn’t know the direction. All we knew was that it would be a big move.

Now we know the direction. It’s lower.

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Look at this updated chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)…

Bitcoin broke down last week. The price is now below the support of its 50-day moving average (MA – blue line) and its 9-day exponential moving average (EMA – red line). So, those former support lines are now resistance on any rally attempts.

More importantly, the 9-day EMA is about to cross below the 50-day MA. This sort of “bearish cross” has often signaled the start of significant declines in Bitcoin.

The black circles on the chart mark the three previous bearish crosses over the past year. Each of them led to declines of 30% or more within just a few weeks. It looks like we’re headed for something similar this time around.

Of course, it’s worth pointing out that we don’t yet have a bearish cross in the moving averages. As of Friday, the 9-day EMA was still above the 50-day MA. So, it’s possible that if GBTC rallies sharply today we can avoid that bearish signal.

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Anything short of a big rally in Bitcoin today is going to create a bearish crossover in the moving averages. And, with the financial markets shifting from a “risk-on” environment to “risk-off,” we’re not likely to see a big rally in Bitcoin today.

So, it looks like the King of Crypto is headed lower for the next few weeks.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Prices Rise as Halving Approaches

A rally in bitcoin led the cryptocurrency market higher ahead of a major technical event for the digital coin and as industry participants report an increased interest from institutional investors.

A rally in bitcoin led the cryptocurrency market higher ahead of a major technical event for the digital coin and as industry participants report an increased interest from institutional investors.

Bitcoin crossed $10,000 on Friday morning Singapore time, the first time it has hit that price since February, according to data from CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency had pared some of those gains and was trading around $9,900.75 as of 1:39 p.m. Singapore time, still representing a more than 6.4% rise from the day before.

The entire market capitalization or value of the cryptocurrency market had jumped by more than $13 billion from the day before, as of around 1:39 p.m. Singapore time. That move had been largely driven by bitcoin which makes up most of that figure. The value of the entire market stood at $268.07 billion.

Industry participants said that a number of factors — from supportive central bank monetary policy to increased interest from institutional investors — has factored into the bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin suffered two bouts of intense selling in March sending it to a low of around $3,867, a price not seen since March 2019. Since then, the price has rallied over 150%.

Meanwhile, stock markets, which also saw sharp drops in March, have recovered. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.4% since its March low.

“Overall markets have been bullish since the March lows and this is across asset classes, including crypto,” Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, told CNBC. “Money printing by the Fed and other central banks globally have given a lot of confidence to investors that the economy will be supported no matter what.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced a number of unprecedented measures to help cushion the economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak. Other central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have unveiled their own stimulus packages. Central bank policies are seen as supportive of risk assets like stocks.

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The ‘Halving’

Part of the rise in bitcoin’s price since the March low has been anticipation of a technical event known as “halving.”

Bitcoin is not issued by a centralized authority like fiat currencies are. That is why it is often called a “decentralized” cryptocurrency. Instead it is governed by code and is underpinned by a technology known as blockchain.

In the world of bitcoin, so-called miners with specialized high-powered computers compete with each other to solve complex math problems to validate bitcoin transactions. Whoever “wins” this race gets rewarded in newly minted bitcoin. This “mining” activity happens in blocks, which is essentially a group of transactions joined into one.

Currently, these miners receive 12.5 bitcoin per block mined. The rewards are halved every few years to keep a lid on inflation. On May 12, the reward per miner will be cut in half again, to 6.25 new bitcoin.

The effect is that the supply of bitcoin coming onto the market is reduced. Previous halving events, which happen every four years, have preceded big price increases in bitcoin.

“For the past few weeks, we have seen additional players enter the BTC market as prices have trended upward in anticipation of the halving event as bulls saw this as an opportunity to buy BTC ahead of a price pop and what many expect will be significant price appreciation,” Matthew Dibb, co-founder of Stack, a bitcoin index fund provider, told CNBC. BTC refers to bitcoin’s currency code like USD for the U.S. dollar.

“This has undoubtedly continued into this week and may even carry over the weekend as the halving draws closer.”

Institutional buying?

Dibb said there are other factors at play as well, including more institutional money flowing into bitcoin.

Paul Tudor Jones, a high-profile Wall Street hedge fund manager, revealed in a message that one of his funds holds a low single-digit percentage in futures on the cryptocurrency, Bloomberg News reported.

“The news that renowned investor, Paul Tudor Jones, has backed bitcoin—publicly praising the asset for its properties as a store of value has almost certainly helped catalyse BTC’s sudden movement into the US$10,000 zone,” Dibb said.

“With monetary easing policies and ‘unlimited’ economic stimuli being recently unveiled across the world, fiat currencies seem set to weaken substantially. This has, in turn, led to bitcoin’s narrative as a ‘store of value’ to gain added traction amongst investors who are seeking to hedge against volatility in traditional markets.”

Bitcoin has often been compared to gold as a so-called safe haven asset during turbulent times for other risky assets like stock markets. However, recently, bitcoin has fallen and risen when stock markets have.

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Flashbacks to 2017?

Bitcoin has always been known as a very volatile asset subject to huge price swings. In 2017, bitcoin saw somewhat of a frenzy that sent its price from under $1,000 at the start of the year to a record high of over $19,700 in December that year.

However, in 2018 the price of bitcoin came crashing down to just over $3,000 by mid-December.

Dibb believes that the recent rally is different from what was seen in 2017.

“This market is not moving purely on the back of retail speculation—and it is primarily Bitcoin which is experiencing gains, not the altcoin market,” Dibb said referring to smaller digital coins. “It is only now that we are really beginning to see institutional and accredited investors operating within the Bitcoin space, bringing a level of market maturity and financial understanding which was all but absent from the cryptocurrency sector as late as 2017 and 2018.”

However, the risk of a substantial drop remains.

“We have gone from 3K to 10K in 2 months, too fast, too soon. There will be a pullback, and that will determine what kind of crash it is,” Luno’s Ayyar said.

“We could pull back to 8K, hold, and them move higher to 15K. Or we could go right back down to 3K as well. At this point though, one has to be bullish, unless, we see a violent move down. I think the current run up though is part of a larger move up, so don’t think we’ll see 3K again anytime soon. But if we do run up to 15-20K, then likelihood of a big move down and larger correction is higher.”

Source: cnbc.com | Original Link

Two Reasons This Crypto Has Already Revolutionized the Industry

By Fred Marion, analyst, Crypto Capital

If I had to come up with a plan to grow the crypto industry up to 90 times, here’s what I would do…

I would find a global social media network with 2.7 billion monthly active users and give them a crypto that’s resistant to inflation.

There’s no single event that could possibly be bigger than that – at least, short of a dollar collapse or a government adopting bitcoin. It would rewrite the rules of money.

That’s exactly what Facebook wants to do with libra.

By now, you’ve probably heard at least some details about libra, the brand-new cryptocurrency that Facebook is developing…

Today, I’ll explain how libra could cause the size of the entire crypto industry to grow by as much as 90 times… virtually overnight.

But as you’ll see, even if Facebook’s plan never comes to fruition, libra has already made a lasting impact on the crypto industry. And that’s great news for investors in the space. Let me explain…

Facebook’s proposed “supercurrency” would be 100% backed by fiat currencies and government bonds. Unlike fiat currencies, though, it would be run on a blockchain. (That’s the public ledger technology that powers bitcoin.)

The company wants to roll libra out across all its social media platforms – Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram. And its ambitions don’t stop there…

Facebook has partnered with around 20 other companies and nonprofit organizations to run the network through the Libra Association. You’ll recognize many of the names… Uber Technologies (UBER), Lyft (LYFT), Spotify Technology (SPOT), Vodafone (VOD), and more.

Many folks fixate on the fact that Facebook can promote libra to 2.7 billion monthly active users in total, across its platforms. But don’t forget the company’s partners…

Overall, libra’s partner companies (excluding Facebook) serve at least 750 million people. That’s roughly three times the size of the entire adult population of the United States.

Of course, we must acknowledge that significant overlap exists, too… If a customer uses Uber, he probably uses Facebook, too. And if he uses Spotify, he likely uses Instagram.

That doesn’t change the main takeaway, though…

Libra’s reach goes far beyond Facebook alone. With all its partners, libra could be advertising to nearly half the world’s population in less than a year.

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In fact, libra is already extremely well-known…

A survey from retail brokerage eToro in July found that 16% of American adults already knew about libra just a month after it was announced. That makes it the second-best-known crypto out of more than 6,000 in the world today. (It trailed bitcoin, which came in at 58%.)

It’s impossible to know exactly how many people own crypto, but the numbers are small…

Just 20.4 million bitcoin addresses (think of them like accounts) exist that are worth $1 or more. And only 7.7 million bitcoin addresses are worth $100 or more. Most estimates say there are anywhere from 30 million to 60 million active crypto holders in the world.

If libra launches, it could expose up to 90 times as many people to crypto almost overnight, just by reaching Facebook’s audience.

But here’s the thing…

Regardless of whether libra ever launches or not, it has already revolutionized the crypto industry.

That’s true for two reasons.

First, it’s forcing everyone – from world leaders to ordinary folks – to ask fundamental questions about money…

In July, members of both chambers of the U.S. Congress grilled Facebook Cryptocurrency Chief David Marcus. It was political grandstanding at its finest. But some lawmakers got it, and the subtext of their questions was profound.

The bitcoin community has been asking these questions for a decade…

Who should control the monetary supply? Why do the poor pay more in bank fees than the wealthy? Should bureaucrats be able to track every financial transaction we’ve ever made? Is inflation really required for growth? Or is it a way for governments around the world to quietly appropriate money from their citizens?

With the fiat monetary system showing cracks, these questions are only going to grow louder. And the answers will become even more important.

There’s one major problem with libra as a form of money, though…

Former Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy pointed it out at the congressional hearings when he held up a $20 bill.

“Everybody can use a $20 bill,” Duffy said. “This $20 bill doesn’t discriminate on anything. You can be a murderer, you can say horrible things, you can say great things. This $20 bill can be used by every single person that possesses it.”

That’s not true of libra. And that could be its undoing…

You see, libra is “centralized.” Facebook and its 27 partners will run it like a crypto cartel. Only the “in” crowd can process transactions. And in theory, that means the association could block specific users. Even worse, it could potentially seize assets from people.

The Libra Association would wield tremendous power over its users. And if it reaches scale, the association would have tremendous power over governments, too…

That’s because the association plans to back every libra with fiat currencies or bonds. If libra reaches scale, the association could one day control trillions of dollars.

It could exclude (or promise to include) certain currencies as its backing. Or it might suddenly decide to buy German bunds instead of U.S. Treasurys. It could even blacklist a country from using libra altogether if it wanted.

Lawmakers, economists, and bankers are nervous about that concentration of power. And in countries where inflation is a problem, libra could wipe out the local currencies altogether.

Governments will fight that tooth and nail.

That brings us to the second reason why libra is revolutionizing the crypto space…

It’s highlighting bitcoin’s benefits.

While governments might regulate libra into the ground, bitcoin will continue to thrive. Unlike libra, bitcoin is “decentralized.”

Sure, governments can stop companies from selling bitcoin to murderers. But they can’t stop the murderers from using bitcoin altogether. Anyone can mine bitcoin (the process of creating new bitcoin). And once they have it, they can use it outside the banking system.

It’s like that $20 bill. It’s fungible. And that’s a requirement for a good form of money.

(Of course, some third-party providers can refuse to serve clients with tainted bitcoin… but that’s the same as cash. Banks can refuse to process cash transactions for criminals, but the criminals can take their money elsewhere.)

Decentralized networks are all-or-nothing. They don’t discriminate… And that’s why North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry called bitcoin an “unstoppable force.”

Libra’s future remains murky, but it should be a wake-up call for everyday investors…

Whether Facebook and its partners ever launch libra or not, corporate money is coming.

Governments may be able to bully Facebook into backing down, but another corporation will pick up the pieces and try again. Maybe it will be Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Alibaba (BABA), Walmart (WMT), or someone else we’re not even thinking about today.

Someone will learn from Facebook’s approach, and come up with a new and improved one… one that satisfies federal regulators. And then, the world will see a wave of corporate money hit the market.

If libra does become a reality, we’ll see a surge of investment across the entire crypto space… Once you have one crypto, swapping it for bitcoin or another crypto isn’t much harder than sending an e-mail.

Libra is just an idea today, but it has already upped the ante. It has taken the conversation from inside coffee shops and around water coolers to the great halls of power… U.S. Congress.

And the more you learn about crypto, the more you’ll see the many benefits of bitcoin…

It’s the backbone of the entire industry. It’s decentralized. It’s inflation-proof because no matter what, there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. And it’s one of the few cryptos that aren’t in the crosshairs of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission right now.

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Crypto isn’t theoretical anymore. It’s no longer a fringe experiment. It’s knocking on the door of mass adoption. And bitcoin holders will be among the biggest beneficiaries.

I should mention one last thing…

While my colleague, Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade, and I believe bitcoin is the one cryptocurrency everyone should own, it’s probably not the best opportunity in the space right now.

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On Wednesday, November 20, 12-term U.S. Congressman Ron Paul will be sharing a massive crypto story for 2020. Eric will join him to discuss why this development could break America’s reliance on fiat currency forever… and why it could help you make 10 times your money or more in the coming months.

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Three Ways to Use Bitcoin Before the Blockchain Revolution

By Eric Wade, editor, Crypto Capital

Editor’s note: You’ve probably heard a lot about cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. But you might not know how they work – or what they’re good for.Today we’re sharing an essay from Eric Wade – “crypto guru” at Stansberry Research. He has made incredible returns in this space. Today, he lays out the surprising uses of bitcoin – now, and in the future…

I answer a lot of questions from my readers. A few weeks ago, one of my readers sent me one that surprised me…

He told me that he doesn’t see the utility of bitcoin. And I’ll admit, it isn’t obvious at first.

Most people know bitcoin is a volatile digital asset. But how useful is bitcoin? What good does it do you to own it, as opposed to gold, or a car… or any other crypto, for that matter?

Today, I’ll show you three big ways that bitcoin has utility. But most of all, I’ll show you why those three reasons are just the beginning… because to really answer this question, you have to take the long view.

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First, bitcoin is a store of value. If you own one bitcoin, you own one. It can’t be taken away.

This confuses a lot of people. They think of a “store of value” as something that will store the value of your dollars. Bitcoin isn’t like that. It fluctuates in relation to U.S. dollars and other currencies… So it’s possible to put more dollars in and take fewer dollars out.

But bitcoin is a store of value – in the most literal sense. If you own 2, 3, 5 bitcoin, those are yours. They cannot be taken away unless you sell them or you lose them. By contrast, the fiat money in your bank account is always subject to seizure by the IRS, creditors, and others.

And it isn’t just that… Remember, bitcoin is finite. One of the Federal Reserve’s primary goals is devaluing or inflating the dollar by 2% a year. In May 2020, bitcoin’s inflation rate will fall to 1.8% (and over the years will eventually fall to zero). That means that even if demand for bitcoin stays flat, its price should rise relative to the dollar – which we know for a fact the Fed is actively working to devalue.

The dollar has lost roughly 98% of its value over the past 100 years. It’s a system that punishes savers and encourages spenders. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is designed to reward long-term savers with ever-decreasing inflation.

Second, bitcoin is also by far the most common unit to trade with on most of the crypto exchanges. So even if you wanted to buy another crypto, you would most likely buy bitcoin as a first step… You buy bitcoin or Ethereum, and then you can use those to buy the other token you really wanted.

Finally, you can’t interact with the bitcoin blockchain without it. This one takes a little explaining…

If you’re not familiar, the blockchain is a public ledger that records all transactions that take place on its network. Because everything is verified publicly by the world’s most powerful network of computers – and because the network is decentralized – it’s an incredibly secure system. And it’s going to change the way we send money securely in the future.

So, for one thing, if you buy bitcoin with fiat currency (like dollars) and move them to a digital wallet, that transaction is recorded on the blockchain – and the transaction fee has to be paid in bitcoin.

But it’s much more than that. Because of the blockchain, bitcoin can’t be copied. It can’t be faked. It can’t be hacked. Forget about counterfeit bills or cybercriminals trying to get into your bank account. That’s the benefit of using the blockchain – and bitcoin, a secure form of digital currency.

These are three simple reasons why bitcoin has utility. But I want to mention one more thing…

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You see, the future utility of bitcoin is hard to predict today.

Think back to 1994 or 1995, and imagine that someone told you, “You have Ethernet. We’ve had it for years. You can either plug that into your computer to access the Internet… or, you can have a wireless connection, which is a lot slower than Ethernet.”

You might have said, “Well, who needs wireless on your computer? I have Ethernet. If I really need to get online, I can plug into that wherever I go.”

For a long time, millions of computers were sold without any wireless capabilities… even after wireless was invented. Now, Wi-Fi is everywhere. No one wants to do without it.

There was a gap in time when the utility of Wi-Fi wasn’t obvious to everyone. Bitcoin is at that stage now.

You might think to yourself, “Oh, what’s the utility of that?” As I’ve shown you today, we do have answers. But the bigger point is, we almost certainly don’t know everything that bitcoin will be used for… or how widely it will spread.

I believe the next generation will build things we haven’t even imagined yet with blockchain, bitcoin, and other crypto tokens. None of us imagined in 1994 that one day, we’d have iPhones with more computing power than the Apollo 11.

So keep this in mind. The best is yet to come.

In the meantime, bitcoin is just an unstoppable digital store of value… that can’t be counterfeited, hacked, or duplicated… with billions of dollars’ worth of value transferred over its network every day.

If that isn’t utility, I don’t know what is.

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Bitcoin Will Protect You From This Debt Bomb

By Greg Wilson, analyst, Palm Beach Daily

Antonio Raimondi has long been honored by Peruvians. The Italian-born geographer and scientist spent most of his adult life in Peru.

He’s known for being one of the founding professors of the medical school at the National University of San Marcos.

And he’s also known for loving all things Peruvian… and his numerous expeditions to all regions of the country.

A century after his passing in 1890, he became the face of the Peruvian inti bank note:

Do you notice anything interesting about this note? The figure of 5,000,000 isn’t a typo. (The largest Peruvian sol bank note today is 200.)

In 1985, Peru was the prototypical case of government mismanagement.

It spent too much in an effort to boost the economy. And the central bank printed money to cover its growing debts.

This led to runaway inflation of over 1,000%. In fact, prices increased so much, the central bank had to create the 5 million inti note above.

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It was unprecedented in Peru’s history. (Imagine if the U.S. released a $2.5 million bank note tomorrow. That’s essentially what Peru did.)

But despite the note’s high nominal value, inflation-adjusted wages fell 54% in Peru during this period. Historians describe Peruvian living standards at the time as unbearable.

And Peru isn’t the only example of hyperinflation destroying a national currency…

Argentina: Inflation was over 47% in 2018 and is running at 56% in 2019. Argentines are lining up at banks to take out their money.
Venezuela: Today, inflation is running at 135,000%. That’s already down from the peak of 2.6 million percent to start the year. And the UN estimates 94% of Venezuelans live in poverty.
Zimbabwe: Inflation reached nearly 300% in 2018. This February, the government introduced a new currency called the zollar—which has already lost 82% of its value.

You may think this type of currency devaluation is only happening in the developing world—but you’d be wrong. Western nations are increasingly using the same money-printing tactics to cover their own debt bubbles.

Although you might not see a $5 million U.S. note soon, this money-printing will eat away at your savings just like it did in Peru, Argentina, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.

But unlike fiat currencies, governments can’t manipulate bitcoin. And today, I’ll share why you should add some to your portfolio as a hedge against rising inflation…

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The Great Unwinding

As Daily editor Teeka Tiwari has put it, the world is facing a $69 trillion debt bomb:

Total emerging market debt has tripled since 2007—and now stands at $69 trillion. (Just last year, Argentina took out an emergency $56 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to cover its short-term debt.)

To make matters worse, many of these loans must be paid back in U.S. dollars. And as the dollar rises, their currencies get weaker. So the loans are more expensive to service.

Now, emerging markets need to pay back (or refinance) $1.5 trillion in debt over the next 18 months. But guess what? They don’t have the money.

Countries are issuing debt they can’t service—and printing too much money to try to cover it. Nothing kills a currency faster than that.

But emerging markets aren’t the only countries firing up the money printers.

On September 12, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its stimulus plan—including rate cuts and a new round of quantitative easing…

The ECB plans to buy 20 billion euros’ worth of debt per month to boost the eurozone’s sluggish economy. This is just a fancy way of saying it’s printing money out of thin air.

And President Trump wants the Federal Reserve to cut rates, too:

The Fed appears to be listening. It just cut rates by 0.25%. It’s not alone, either…

Japan continues to print record amounts of money. The Bank of Japan’s balance sheet is at all-time highs, nearing $5.5 trillion. It also has negative rates (and is considering lowering them more).

The People’s Bank of China has a balance sheet over $5 trillion as well. And it’s been clear that it’ll provide as much stimulus as it can to keep its economy growing.

The bottom line is, all the major global economies are “stimulating” their currencies and economies in one way or another. And eventually, they’ll end up like Peru in the 1980s.

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The New Gold

Gold has been the traditional safe-haven asset. Used for thousands of years, it can hold its value no matter what the economic condition.

And while we still like gold, bitcoin is also a hedge against inflation.

It’s not controlled by any government. And its supply is governed by computer code. Only 21 million bitcoins will ever exist—and 85% is already in circulation.

So unlike fiat currencies, you can’t create bitcoin out of thin air. This makes it a good asset to own in a world being managed like Peru in the 1980s.

Here’s Teeka again:

For those who have lived through several currency devaluations (like Argentines), bitcoin is a substitute to putting their money in banks. In fact, they’re willing to pay a $1,000 premium or more for bitcoin.

The government can stop them from buying U.S. dollars… But it can’t stop them from buying bitcoin. Even with bitcoin’s wild volatility, they’d rather have 20% of something than 100% of nothing.

Now, if you’re from a country with an established fiat currency, you probably won’t place your savings into a volatile asset like bitcoin. But consider a small stake; it could turn into life-changing gains as the Great Unwinding unfolds.

When you can’t get any interest on your cash… when governments are printing unlimited amounts of that cash… and when a worldwide Great Unwinding is on the horizon… the risk is not owning bitcoin.

But always remember, bitcoin is volatile. So don’t bet the farm. You just need a tiny grubstake for the potential for life-changing gains.

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Again, all you need is a small stake in bitcoin and other cryptos to make life-changing gains. And there’s a phenomenon happening soon that we won’t see again until 2024. It’ll send the market higher.

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