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Is It Time For Every Investor To Own Some Bitcoin?

Is It Time For Every Investor To Own Some Bitcoin? Generally speaking, the more you seek portfolio safety over high returns, the more your portfolio should tilt toward stores of value. So with that in mind, where does bitcoin fit in?

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By Austin Root, portfolio manager, Stansberry Portfolio Solutions

Are you in the camp that believes bitcoin is a technological marvel that will prove to be one of the most valuable assets – if not the most valuable asset – in the world?

On the flip side, are you among the naysayers who argue bitcoin is a sham, a hoax, and only extreme fools would risk real money “investing” in something as arbitrary as a digital currency?

My guess is that most of you find yourself somewhere in between these two extremes. And I need to make a confession… After much research, I still find myself in that middle ground.

Nevertheless, I do own bitcoin. And I recently bought more.

I believe now is the time for every investor to own some bitcoin. One simple reason why is that it fills a crucial role in your portfolio…

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Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It’s a digital asset that isn’t controlled by any person or government. And it operates completely outside of the traditional banking system.

Bitcoin can be transferred to anyone with a “digital wallet” – anywhere in the world – securely, cheaply, and almost instantaneously. The technology that enables this is the blockchain. The blockchain is basically a database or ledger. But it’s distributed across the entire network, so that everyone can see all the data on every transaction and verify their accuracy.

So how does bitcoin fit into an investment portfolio?

In my view, every investment portfolio – whatever your goals may be – really needs only two main kinds of assets: productive assets and stores of value.

Productive assets are your workhorse investments that will generally account for the majority of your portfolio and contribute most of your overall gains. These assets are “productive” in that they generate a rate of return greater than their cost of capital (and inflation).

Examples of such assets include public stocks, high-yield bonds, private company investments, and income-producing real estate.

Stores of value should make up the rest of your portfolio. This is your reserve (or “cache”) of safe capital that you expect to essentially maintain its value over time. It’s also your store of “dry powder” that you can opportunistically deploy into productive assets after a major market sell-off.

Examples of stores of value that have been widely used over time include cash, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and non-income-producing real estate assets.

Generally speaking, the more you seek portfolio safety over high returns, the more your portfolio should tilt toward stores of value.

So with that in mind, where does bitcoin fit in? Is it a productive asset or a store of value?

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The most ardent bitcoin bulls will argue that it’s more of a productive asset. They see bitcoin as the transactional currency and network that will transform financial markets around the globe. But mostly, they’re just seduced by bitcoin’s extreme growth in value from $0.05 per bitcoin in 2010 to more than $17,000 per bitcoin today.

If you invested $1,000 in bitcoin back then, it would be worth more than $340 million now. So you can see where they’re coming from.

But in truth, there’s nothing inherently “productive” about bitcoin. It doesn’t produce earnings or cash flow. It doesn’t pay dividends or interest. And you can’t really value bitcoin like a traditional stock or bond.

No, unless financial markets change completely, bitcoin is decidedly not a productive asset.

So then, is it a store of value? The key to a store of value is that it needs to maintain its value over time. Bitcoin bears would point out plenty of instances where the crypto asset’s price went sour faster than a gallon of milk (including losing nearly half its value in one day).

It’s true that bitcoin’s price has been extremely volatile in the short term. But time and again, it has proven itself as an excellent store of value over the longer run. And given current global market and economic forces, I believe bitcoin will prove to be the single best store of value on the planet over the next decade or more.

Why? Two reasons. First, the elasticity of supply of bitcoin is effectively zero. (Elasticity is a measure of how much the supply of a given good tends to increase when the price of that good also increases.) For other assets like oil or steel, as the market price goes up, so does the supply of that good… until the market reaches an equilibrium where supply equals demand. Then, prices tend to fall.

But the rate of creation of new bitcoin will never increase, no matter how high the price goes. The rate of production is fixed. In fact, the rate of creation of new bitcoin is actually declining over time and will continue to decline until the new number of bitcoins produced hits zero.

So supply will never equal demand.

That’s the second reason bitcoin is the ultimate store of value in the current environment: It’s the only major store of value with an ultimate supply that is finite. The maximum number of bitcoin that will ever be “mined” is limited to 21 million bitcoin – no matter what.

That might seem like a lot, but consider there are currently roughly 52 million millionaires around the globe who collectively own around half the world’s net worth. If each of these millionaires wants to own just one-half of one bitcoin, there will never be enough to satisfy that demand.

That’s why every investor should own at least a little bitcoin.

Teeka Tiwari: Big Banks Give Green Light to Bitcoin

According to a report by Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, millennials are set to inherit as much as $68 trillion over the next decade. It’s the largest transfer of wealth in history. In my opinion, a lot of that money is going to find its way into digital assets like bitcoin.

By Teeka Tiwari, editor, Palm Beach Daily

Jack Dorsey is a pioneer in the tech space…

He cofounded Twitter in 2006, growing it from an obscure messaging app into one of the world’s largest social media platforms… with over 330 million monthly users (including President Trump).

He’s also the founder of Square, a financial services and mobile payments company based in San Francisco. Square allows individuals and merchants to accept offline debit and credit card payments on their smart devices.

Using a tiny square-shaped phone plug-in, Square all but eliminated the need for cash registers in small businesses. It was a complete game-changer.

Today, more than 64 million businesses around the world rely on Square’s cashless system.

Since it went public nearly five years ago, Square’s share price has rocketed from $12.85 to $153 – a 1,090% gain. That’s more than PayPal, Google, or Amazon over the same span.

But Square’s technology will be far more disruptive than just killing cash registers. In Dorsey’s own words, “Twitter is about moving words. Square is about moving money.”

That’s why Square was an early adopter of bitcoin.

In 2017, the company began offering bitcoin transactions on its popular Cash App. Its main goal is to make bitcoin the “native” currency of the internet.

And its latest earnings report shows signs that bitcoin’s adoption is increasing rapidly.

Today, I’ll tell you what those numbers mean… and the opportunity ahead.

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Millennials Spearheading Adoption

Cash App is a popular payment platform offered by Square. And its biggest userbase consists of millennials.

According to Business Insider, Cash App has 30 million users. Nearly half of its users are people between ages 25 and 34.

Young people like Cash App because it enables them to easily send money to or receive it from their friends.

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It makes it quick and simple to split a restaurant bill or an Uber ride. In June alone, Cash App saw 30 million transactions. That’s an increase of 50% from June 2019.

And leading that usage growth was bitcoin. According to its earnings report, Square’s revenue from bitcoin was up 600% from the year prior.

The chart below shows bitcoin’s explosion in popularity on Cash App:

Millennials grew up on digital assets. They’re more comfortable using something like Cash App rather than a physical checkbook. So, bitcoin makes a lot of sense to them, and it’s natural for them to accept that it has value.

But adoption among millennials is just the start…

You see, only a fraction of the population uses cryptos today. Right now, 35–50 million people own crypto. That’s about 0.6% of the world’s population.

Today, only 9% of the U.S. population owns bitcoin. But about 30% of those who do own it are millennials.

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According to a report by Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, millennials are set to inherit as much as $68 trillion over the next decade.

It’s the largest transfer of wealth in history. In my opinion, a lot of that money is going to find its way into digital assets like bitcoin.

Think about this…

If just 10% of the $68 trillion they’re set to inherit goes into crypto (close to $7 trillion), the entire crypto market could go up 25x.

This crypto technology could revolutionize nearly every industry – and change your life forever.

As more financial firms like Square make buying bitcoin easy, we’ll continue seeing widespread adoption of crypto assets. But it’s not just the new guys getting into crypto.

We’re about to see traditional banks come into crypto for the first time.

Banks Given the Green Light

Last month, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) gave the green light for banks to store and work with cryptocurrency.

I want you to think about the implications of that for a moment…

Back in 2016, some of my subscribers reported getting their bank accounts closed for buying crypto. In 2018, there wasn’t a bank in all of Puerto Rico that would let me open an account because I was writing about crypto.

Look how far we’ve come.

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If you’re not familiar, the OCC is an independent branch in the Department of the Treasury. It regulates and supervises all the national banks. So a decision from the OCC impacts what hundreds of millions of people can do with their money.

This milestone paves the way for the entire crypto ecosystem to go mainstream. We’re already seeing mass adoption among young adults. But thanks to the OCC ruling, crypto is now primed to reach hundreds of millions more.

The U.S. banking system alone touches the lives of over 300 million Americans. And it holds north of $20 trillion in assets.

Right now, bitcoin’s market cap is just $200 billion. If bank customers allocate just 1% of their accounts to bitcoin… its market cap would double.

Nearly a dozen banks responded positively to the notice, including U.S. Bank and PNC Bank.

It’s time to read the writing on the wall. Crypto assets are here to stay. If you don’t have at least some exposure now, you will get left behind financially as these assets take off in price.

If you’ve been holding back on getting involved in crypto – or perhaps got scared out of it during the bear market – now is the time to get back in.

Since the OCC made its announcement, we’ve seen bitcoin increase 17%. And the entire crypto market is up 26%.

We’re already seeing millennials adopt bitcoin on platforms like Cash App. Soon, your local bank will be offering the ability to transact in crypto, too.

But you need to act today. Once crypto prices take off, there’s no bringing them back. The price you pay today could look very cheap three months from now.

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As I mentioned above, we’ll see bitcoin – and crypto – adoption skyrocket over the coming months. And I believe it’ll spark a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity…

But starting with its underlying blockchain technology, I believe we’re about to see the biggest wealth and power shift in U.S. history.

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What This Announcement Means for Crypto?

Last month, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued guidance that banks can store and work with cryptocurrency. This news is huge for crypto adoption. The OCC basically gave the traditional financial system the green light to come into crypto.

By Chaka Ferguson, managing editor, Palm Beach Daily

Last month, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued guidance that banks can store and work with cryptocurrency.

Most people have probably never heard about the OCC. But it regulates all U.S. banks. So it’s one of the most powerful federal agencies in the country.

Here’s an excerpt from its landmark guidance on crypto:

We conclude a national bank may provide… cryptocurrency custody services on behalf of customers, including by holding the unique cryptographic keys associated with cryptocurrency.

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This news is huge for crypto adoption. The OCC basically gave the traditional financial system the green light to come into crypto.

All of a sudden, every bank in the United States can safely get into crypto without fear of running afoul of regulators. And this move will accelerate adoption of crypto assets.

Let me put this in perspective for you…

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Right now, 35–50 million people own crypto. That’s 0.6% of the world’s population.

The U.S. banking system alone touches the lives of over 300 million Americans. And it holds north of $20 trillion in assets. If bank customers allocate just 1% of their accounts to bitcoin… bitcoin’s market cap would double.

We believe crypto adoption will be as widespread as internet adoption – maybe even more so.

Eighty percent of central banks are engaged in digital currency research, according to the Bank for International Settlements. And the World Economic Forum estimates blockchain projects will store 10% of the world’s gross domestic product – or about $8.6 trillion – by 2027.

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Right now, the entire crypto market cap is around just $350 billion. When hundreds of millions of people get easy access to crypto, you’ll see the entire space just explode in value.

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The OCC’s new guidance on crypto assets is bullish for the entire space.

So we had Palm Beach Research Group chief analyst, Grant Wasylik, reach out to U.S. Representative Darren Soto (D-Florida), a leading expert in blockchain – and co-chair of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus – for his take…

It’s a can’t-miss interview…

An Interview with Representative Darren Soto

Grant: Thanks for joining us, Rep. Soto. You’re one of the foremost experts on blockchain tech in Congress. What’s your take on the OCC letter?

Rep. Soto: It’s a move in the right direction. It further legitimizes cryptocurrency. Now, it’s been blessed. And it plays an important part in the maturation of the cryptocurrency market.

Grant: Will the new guidance change Congress members’ views on blockchain and crypto assets?

Rep. Soto: It’s one step in a longer journey. The real challenge is educating members and getting them more comfortable. This letter helps do that. We’re already in talks on some bills. A month ago, these discussions may not have happened.

Grant: How long before a major bank offers crypto banking?

Rep. Soto: I would expect larger financial institutions to offer these products by next year. For smaller and startup institutions, I see them filling the void in the meantime. Some of them will have great success and could capture a large market share. There’s a lot of potential.

Grant: Is Congress currently working on any blockchain legislation?

Rep. Soto: We had two recent amendment wins with the Department of Defense and United States Department of Agriculture [USDA].

We got the Department of Defense to include distributed ledger technology as a qualified competitive-edge technology for the military. It creates the demand for innovation. And it protects our national security.

We also got the USDA to use blockchain technology to track food tracing. We’re trying to form an Office of Blockchain Excellence, by way of the White House budget, that would tie a lot of these things together.

Grant: What else is brewing on the blockchain front in Congress?

Rep. Soto: There are dozens of blockchain and crypto bills on the docket. The only ones that matter are those that are moving.

We’ve worked on several out of our office. Two big ones are the Token Taxonomy Act and the Digital Taxonomy Act… The goal is to create the legal framework for a digital asset market in jurisdictions for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

These bills would establish the first new financial asset under federal law in decades. This is a longer-term goal that will take some time. But having the [OCC] letter helps in the absence of that.

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These were just some highlights from Grant’s interview. But as you can see, the opportunity in blockchain is bigger than anything you can ever imagine.

That’s why we call it the No. 1 investment of the decade. In fact, we believe blockchain will be so big, it could revolutionize the entire economy.

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Jeff Clark: Bad News for Bitcoin

It looks like the King of Crypto – Bitcoin is headed lower for the next few weeks.

By Jeff Clark – the editor of the Jeff Clark Trader

The price of Bitcoin is breaking down.

It’s been a few weeks since we last looked at the King of Cryptocurrencies. Back then, we noted how Bitcoin was approaching the apex of a large consolidating triangle pattern. It was headed for a BIG move one way or the other. But, we didn’t know the direction. All we knew was that it would be a big move.

Now we know the direction. It’s lower.

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Look at this updated chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)…

Bitcoin broke down last week. The price is now below the support of its 50-day moving average (MA – blue line) and its 9-day exponential moving average (EMA – red line). So, those former support lines are now resistance on any rally attempts.

More importantly, the 9-day EMA is about to cross below the 50-day MA. This sort of “bearish cross” has often signaled the start of significant declines in Bitcoin.

The black circles on the chart mark the three previous bearish crosses over the past year. Each of them led to declines of 30% or more within just a few weeks. It looks like we’re headed for something similar this time around.

Of course, it’s worth pointing out that we don’t yet have a bearish cross in the moving averages. As of Friday, the 9-day EMA was still above the 50-day MA. So, it’s possible that if GBTC rallies sharply today we can avoid that bearish signal.

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Anything short of a big rally in Bitcoin today is going to create a bearish crossover in the moving averages. And, with the financial markets shifting from a “risk-on” environment to “risk-off,” we’re not likely to see a big rally in Bitcoin today.

So, it looks like the King of Crypto is headed lower for the next few weeks.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Prices Rise as Halving Approaches

A rally in bitcoin led the cryptocurrency market higher ahead of a major technical event for the digital coin and as industry participants report an increased interest from institutional investors.

A rally in bitcoin led the cryptocurrency market higher ahead of a major technical event for the digital coin and as industry participants report an increased interest from institutional investors.

Bitcoin crossed $10,000 on Friday morning Singapore time, the first time it has hit that price since February, according to data from CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency had pared some of those gains and was trading around $9,900.75 as of 1:39 p.m. Singapore time, still representing a more than 6.4% rise from the day before.

The entire market capitalization or value of the cryptocurrency market had jumped by more than $13 billion from the day before, as of around 1:39 p.m. Singapore time. That move had been largely driven by bitcoin which makes up most of that figure. The value of the entire market stood at $268.07 billion.

Industry participants said that a number of factors — from supportive central bank monetary policy to increased interest from institutional investors — has factored into the bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin suffered two bouts of intense selling in March sending it to a low of around $3,867, a price not seen since March 2019. Since then, the price has rallied over 150%.

Meanwhile, stock markets, which also saw sharp drops in March, have recovered. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.4% since its March low.

“Overall markets have been bullish since the March lows and this is across asset classes, including crypto,” Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, told CNBC. “Money printing by the Fed and other central banks globally have given a lot of confidence to investors that the economy will be supported no matter what.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced a number of unprecedented measures to help cushion the economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak. Other central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have unveiled their own stimulus packages. Central bank policies are seen as supportive of risk assets like stocks.

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The ‘Halving’

Part of the rise in bitcoin’s price since the March low has been anticipation of a technical event known as “halving.”

Bitcoin is not issued by a centralized authority like fiat currencies are. That is why it is often called a “decentralized” cryptocurrency. Instead it is governed by code and is underpinned by a technology known as blockchain.

In the world of bitcoin, so-called miners with specialized high-powered computers compete with each other to solve complex math problems to validate bitcoin transactions. Whoever “wins” this race gets rewarded in newly minted bitcoin. This “mining” activity happens in blocks, which is essentially a group of transactions joined into one.

Currently, these miners receive 12.5 bitcoin per block mined. The rewards are halved every few years to keep a lid on inflation. On May 12, the reward per miner will be cut in half again, to 6.25 new bitcoin.

The effect is that the supply of bitcoin coming onto the market is reduced. Previous halving events, which happen every four years, have preceded big price increases in bitcoin.

“For the past few weeks, we have seen additional players enter the BTC market as prices have trended upward in anticipation of the halving event as bulls saw this as an opportunity to buy BTC ahead of a price pop and what many expect will be significant price appreciation,” Matthew Dibb, co-founder of Stack, a bitcoin index fund provider, told CNBC. BTC refers to bitcoin’s currency code like USD for the U.S. dollar.

“This has undoubtedly continued into this week and may even carry over the weekend as the halving draws closer.”

Institutional buying?

Dibb said there are other factors at play as well, including more institutional money flowing into bitcoin.

Paul Tudor Jones, a high-profile Wall Street hedge fund manager, revealed in a message that one of his funds holds a low single-digit percentage in futures on the cryptocurrency, Bloomberg News reported.

“The news that renowned investor, Paul Tudor Jones, has backed bitcoin—publicly praising the asset for its properties as a store of value has almost certainly helped catalyse BTC’s sudden movement into the US$10,000 zone,” Dibb said.

“With monetary easing policies and ‘unlimited’ economic stimuli being recently unveiled across the world, fiat currencies seem set to weaken substantially. This has, in turn, led to bitcoin’s narrative as a ‘store of value’ to gain added traction amongst investors who are seeking to hedge against volatility in traditional markets.”

Bitcoin has often been compared to gold as a so-called safe haven asset during turbulent times for other risky assets like stock markets. However, recently, bitcoin has fallen and risen when stock markets have.

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Flashbacks to 2017?

Bitcoin has always been known as a very volatile asset subject to huge price swings. In 2017, bitcoin saw somewhat of a frenzy that sent its price from under $1,000 at the start of the year to a record high of over $19,700 in December that year.

However, in 2018 the price of bitcoin came crashing down to just over $3,000 by mid-December.

Dibb believes that the recent rally is different from what was seen in 2017.

“This market is not moving purely on the back of retail speculation—and it is primarily Bitcoin which is experiencing gains, not the altcoin market,” Dibb said referring to smaller digital coins. “It is only now that we are really beginning to see institutional and accredited investors operating within the Bitcoin space, bringing a level of market maturity and financial understanding which was all but absent from the cryptocurrency sector as late as 2017 and 2018.”

However, the risk of a substantial drop remains.

“We have gone from 3K to 10K in 2 months, too fast, too soon. There will be a pullback, and that will determine what kind of crash it is,” Luno’s Ayyar said.

“We could pull back to 8K, hold, and them move higher to 15K. Or we could go right back down to 3K as well. At this point though, one has to be bullish, unless, we see a violent move down. I think the current run up though is part of a larger move up, so don’t think we’ll see 3K again anytime soon. But if we do run up to 15-20K, then likelihood of a big move down and larger correction is higher.”

Source: cnbc.com | Original Link