2020 Melt Up Event Review - Steady Income Investments

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Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: The Biggest Mistake You Can Make in This Melt Up

Today, with the Melt Up in place, the idea of selling seems foolish. But someday soon, it’ll be the right thing to do. And if you don’t act then, it’ll be the biggest mistake you could make.

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The stock market hit a peak in March 2000.

The tech bubble had made everyone feel like a genius. Times were great. They had been for years… And then they weren’t.

Over the next few months, most of the recommendations in the newsletter I wrote at the time hit their stops.

It felt terrible.

I told readers that we had to sell, to live to fight another day. I knew it was the right thing to do. It was the only thing we could do.

I knew the market mania that had been playing out for years couldn’t and wouldn’t last forever. And I was sure it’d get ugly if the situation had finally turned.

So when we began hitting stops – and then kept hitting stops – I told my readers to sell. And while it was the right thing to do, I still felt like a failure.

My job was – and is – to find the best investment ideas each month. So even if those ideas had worked for years and led to big gains, selling was tough. It never feels good to hit a stop loss.

That’s what’s funny about doing the right thing at a hard time… Even if you know it’s right, it usually doesn’t feel like it.

Today, with the Melt Up in place, the idea of selling seems foolish. But someday soon, it’ll be the right thing to do. And if you don’t act then, it’ll be the biggest mistake you could make.

Let me explain…

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The late 1990s Melt Up had been firing on all cylinders for over a year before the bottom fell out. There were several quick drops along the way. And to be honest, I didn’t know for sure if the drop that kicked me out of most of my positions was the big one or not.

Either way, I knew we couldn’t stick around to find out.

I tell you this today because you need to be ready. Euphoria is gripping the market. And while that’s not a reason to sell, it is something we need to understand.

What you don’t want to have happen to you is what I know happened to a lot of my readers in 2000…

“The stock had treated me so well, Steve. I know you told me to sell, but I never did.”

I heard those lines for years at conferences after the tech bubble burst. Dozens if not hundreds of my readers echoed the same sentiment. They knew they should sell, but they were attached to the big winners. So they rode them all the way down.

The worst case came in what should have been one of the biggest winners for those folks, JDS Uniphase…

This was a true high-flyer of the tech bubble. The stock was up as much as 1,200% after my recommendation. And I closed it for around a 900% gain after hitting a stop loss. But here’s the thing…

I had several readers tell me they were still holding the stock years later… All those gains had disappeared, and they were actually sitting on a loss.

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This might seem silly to read two decades later. Who would actually make such a foolish mistake, right?

It’s easy to point fingers at someone else’s blunder. But believe me, there will be lots and lots of folks who will do the exact same thing this time around. You do NOT want to be one of them.

Of all the lessons I learned from the tech bubble, this one might be the most valuable: If you want to play with fire, you’ve got to be willing to walk away.

That’s why you need stop losses in place today. And you need to listen to them.

It’s the most important thing you can do for your money in the months ahead. And it’s the only sure way you can avoid the biggest mistake you can make in this Melt Up.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: The Stock Market Melt Up is Here

The stock market Melt Up is here – and so is the euphoria that goes along with it. Stocks are soaring. Times are good. And that makes cash a dead weight in your portfolio.

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I first wrote about the potential for a stock market Melt Up in 2015. And since then, this setup has never been clearer than it is today.

The stock market Melt Up is here – and so is the euphoria that goes along with it.

If you’ve been watching the markets, I’m guessing you can feel it. Sentiment is as much a feeling as it is a tangible thing. But there’s plenty of hard evidence to back it up, too.

Today, I’ll share the signs of what’s happening… and more important, what it means for your money now.

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Proof of the Melt Up is everywhere today. The first obvious clue is the initial public offering (“IPO”) market.

Companies tend to come to market when times are good… or more specifically, when valuations are high.

There were 480 IPOs in 2020. That’s the highest we’ve seen since 1999. And it’s more than 50% higher than what we saw in 2014, the second-biggest IPO year of the last decade. Take a look…

IPOs were a major theme of the tech bubble. Hundreds of companies went public because money was flowing and times were good.

Many of those stocks would soar triple digits on their opening day. And the same thing is happening today in many high-profile IPOs.

Last month, DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB) both went public. These companies each used a special “hybrid auction” to allocate shares to investors. The idea was to have investors bid a price in the hopes that the actual IPO price would come close to the true market value at launch.

If it worked, we wouldn’t have seen these stocks soar on their opening days… But it didn’t work.

Instead, DoorDash soared 86% when it began trading. Airbnb jumped 115%. Those are high opening-day moves in massive businesses. The companies have market caps of $45 billion and $88 billion, respectively.

More important, when you put this in context with the above chart – with total IPOs surpassing 2000 levels – the point is clear. IPO euphoria is taking off in the market today. And that’s Melt Up behavior at its purest.

IPOs are just part of the story, though. According to Citigroup, overall euphoria is at its highest level since the early 2000s.

That’s according to the company’s Panic/Euphoria Composite Index, which looks at factors like margin debt and options trading. It shows dramatically higher euphoria than we ever saw during the 11-year bull market. And it’s nearing 20-year highs, too.

Simply put, everyone’s bullish. And they’re behaving accordingly.

Professional investors are following suit. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey from December shows it clearly…

It surveys a few hundred money managers to get their take on the markets each month. These professional money managers are now underweight cash for the first time since 2013. And that makes sense given what’s going on.

Stocks are soaring. Times are good. And that makes cash a dead weight in your portfolio. So even though cash serves a purpose, the pros have ditched it.

I’m not kidding when I say stocks are soaring, either…

Aside from April of this year, November was the best month for the S&P 500 since 2011. Stocks jumped more than 10%.

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Again, the takeaway from all of this is clear…

Market euphoria is here.

That’s not a bad thing. It’s exactly what we expected when the Melt Up began to take hold. But let’s not kid ourselves… This is a dangerous time to be an investor.

It’s dangerous because while times are good now, we know what happens next. After a furious Melt Up comes a crushing Melt Down.

Tomorrow, I’ll share how you can protect yourself from that looming risk.

The Melt Up in U.S. Stocks is Well Underway: Tech Stocks Are on a Hot Streak With More Gains Ahead

The trend in one large U.S. tech fund is accelerating. This batch of stocks recently rallied nine days in a row. Importantly, these kinds of hot streaks often signal that the trend is strengthening. That means more gains ahead in this hot sector.

By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth

It has been three years since we’ve seen a move like this…

The Melt Up in U.S. stocks is well underway. And the tech darlings of the original 1990s Melt Up are showing their stuff once again.

You see, a trend in one large U.S. tech fund is accelerating. This batch of stocks recently rallied nine days in a row.

Importantly, these kinds of hot streaks often signal that the trend is strengthening. That means more gains ahead in this hot sector.

Specifically, we could see major outperformance – and easily double-digit gains – over the next year.

Let me explain…

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You might not want to believe it. But trends are a powerful investing tool… maybe the most powerful.

That frustrates some folks because it’s so simple. Simple things shouldn’t work so well in the markets. But they often do.

The facts are that a rising stock tends to keep rising in the short term. And following the trend is one of the easiest ways to make money in the markets.

You can see this even more when an uptrend starts to accelerate. That’s exactly what we are seeing right now in the iShares U.S. Technology Fund (IYW).

The fund recently rallied for nine consecutive days. Take a look…

Clearly, the overall trend is moving higher. That’s no surprise with the overall market hitting new all-time highs. And in the case of tech stocks, the trend is accelerating.

The recent string of up days is the longest we’ve seen since 2017. To get an idea of how powerful these signals can be, we looked at similar cases going back to 2000.

This kind of situation has led to solid outperformance over the past two decades. It typically leads to double-digit gains over the next year. Check it out…

Since 2000, tech stocks have returned less than 6% a year. That’s a mediocre return compared with what’s possible after today’s setup…

Similar cases have led to near-6% gains in three months, 8% gains in six months, and a solid 12% gain over the next year. That’s double the gain of a classic buy-and-hold strategy.

The Melt Up is in full force. And given that, I expect we could see much bigger gains this time around.

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Remember, tech stocks were the big winner of the last Melt Up. They’ve been soaring this time around too. And the hot streak we recently saw in tech stocks is a sign that there is plenty of life left in today’s market.

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Dr. Steve Sjuggerud: The Lesson of the Last Melt Up

Today, with the Melt Up in place and the potential Melt Down in the future, we need to understand this lesson. It’s the key to protecting our investment gains..

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, True Wealth

Andy Kessler and Fred Kittler turned down $1 billion in a single week in 1999.

As it turns out, they made the right decision…

Andy and Fred were Wall Street hotshots. They’d each spent more than a decade in high finance. And they joined forces to start a hedge fund – Velocity Capital Management – in 1996.

Their long history in the market prepared them for the great 1990s Melt Up. And since they focused on tech stocks, their fund was a roaring success. But it’s what they did after that success that was most important.

Today, with the Melt Up in place and the potential Melt Down in the future, we need to understand this lesson. It’s the key to protecting our investment gains…

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Back in the dot-com era, it didn’t take long for Velocity Capital Management to start producing huge returns. The fund made gains of 100% in 1998 alone. But that was just the beginning.

In 1999, the fund made investors 377%… in just one year. That’s an incredible return, even given the tech-boom backdrop.

These big returns caught the interest of major investors. But just as those investors were getting excited to put money to work, Andy and Fred were getting cautious on the markets.

By 1999, they’d become uneasy about how much money was flowing into tech stocks. Stocks were shooting up hundreds of percent in a matter of weeks… And their fund was in on the fun.

The Melt Up had been in full force for a couple years already. So, after taking advantage of it from 1996 through 1999, the two decided to start trimming their positions. But then, they took it a step further.

In the summer of 1999, the pair of investment managers did the unthinkable… They turned down a total of $1 billion worth of investment dollars, from two separate investors, in a single week.

When it comes to managing money, you want to generate great returns, of course. But what you really want to do is raise more money. Turning down an amount that would roughly double your fund size is almost unheard of.

Andy and Fred didn’t just turn down the money, though. They started giving money back to clients as well. And they completely wound down the fund by 2001.

As we know now, that was a brilliant call. It was exactly the right thing to do for their investors. Not only did Andy and Fred take full advantage of the Melt Up… but they got investors out near the peak, too.

Clearly, these two nailed the 1990s Melt Up. And we can learn a lot from their success.

Our goal today is to do what they did… ride the Melt Up as long as we can – and get out when the time is right.

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That’s easier said than done. In the thick of a Melt Up, it feels more and more foolish to pull out of the market. Stocks continue to hit new highs. And it seems like all news is good news.

You’ll think to yourself, “Why bet against that? It seems foolish.” But when the time comes, we’ve got to be willing to sell.

Today is not the day. The trend is up, and the Melt Up is on. But we have to be ready for the red that will eventually follow.

Andy and Fred returned cash to investors at the height of the dot-com-era Melt Up. They made sure their returns weren’t wiped out in the eventual Melt Down.

I’ll be watching the markets closing in the coming months. And I’ll be following an exit plan to cut my losses short. That means following my stops… first and foremost.

You can read more about this idea right here.

What’s happening today is incredible. And I plan to stay on board as long as possible. But when the time comes, I’ll sell. I hope you’ll do the same.

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Pricing

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Is There Any Guarantee or Refund Policy in Place?

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Final Words

This Special 2020 Melt Up offer will expire soon… Act FAST!

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